My meta-analysis on corporate tax competition is out in European Journal of Political Economy. The results point to tax competition as a major factor in explaining reductions in corporate tax rates. Data and specification choices affect results: Thread /1

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Statutory corporate income tax rates have declined substantially in EU countries over the past decades. However, it's not straightforward to what extent these observed declines in corporate tax rates are explained by tax competition; it could also be due to other factors. /2
The literature doesn't provide general conclusions on magnitude of corporate tax competition: while several papers report clear empirical support for corporate tax competition, other papers either find no clear support or at least present mixed evidence. Meta-analysis can help /3
I use a novel dataset consisting of 604 observations on corporate tax competition reported in 33 primary studies. The precision-weighted average of the reported results points to the presence of corporate tax competition. /4
A one percentage point decline in corporate tax rates in competitor jurisdictions is, on average, associated with a fall in the corporate tax rate at home by about 0.8% – with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.7% to 0.9%. /5
Tax competition, on average, is indeed a major factor in explaining falling corporate income tax rates over the last decades. Obviously, this finding does not imply that competitive pressures have been equally strong in all countries. /6
The last point is supported by further results from the meta-regression analysis, which indicate that country size and partisan politics moderate the magnitude of the effect of corporate tax competition, respectively. /7
The paper is *open access*: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

The code and data files required to reproduce all the findings of the paper are available via Github: github.com/heimbergecon/c….

/end

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More from @heimbergecon

10 Jan
It’s totally wrong to draw the lesson from history that you have to push for “drastic anti-inflation“ policy to counteract a rise of the Nazis. Nazi rise in Germany in early 1930s happened when there was DEFLATION, worsened by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

In 1928, the Nazis had 2.6% of the votes in Germany; in 1932, they had 37.4%. Most people – across the political spectrum – don’t know that Nazi rise happened in an environment of mass unemployment and DEFLATION. /2

hertie-school.org/fileadmin/user…
Hyperinflation in Germany stopped in 1923 after the currency reform. And the real problem as the Nazis gained strength was the severe recession with deflationary pressures. Brüning’s emergency decrees introduced tax hikes and spending cuts, with devastating economic effects. /3
Read 6 tweets
9 Jan
Austria has a plagiarism scandal of a new dimension. The PhD thesis of Labour Minister Christine Aschbacher (from the conservative party of Chancellor Kurz) opens unbelievable "abysses of gibberish, nonsense and plagiarism".

plagiatsgutachten.com/blog/dissertat…
Labour Minister Aschbacher's Master's thesis was also riddled with plagiarism. And she defended her PhD thesis in the middle of the pandemic, when she should have focused all her efforts on coming up with the best possible policy response to the crisis.

derstandard.at/story/20001231…
Austrian Labour Minister Christina Aschbacher just resigned due to accusations of plagiarism. But she is now portraying herself as the victim of a campaign. Given the evidence shown by plagiarism hunter Stefan Weber, her defence is not very convincing:

derstandard.at/story/20001231…
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
EU-Wiederaufbaufonds wird dazu beitragen, dass EU-Länder nach Corona nicht weiter auseinanderdriften. €750 Milliarden durch EU-Anleihen; damit wird EU zu wichtigem Akteur auf den Anleihemärkten; ein Zukunftsmodell! Meine Kolumne @handelsblatt: Thread/1

handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumn… Image
In den letzten Monaten von 2020 begab die EU ihre ersten COVID-bezogenen Anleihen für das SURE-Programm (Unterstützung von Kurzarbeitsprogrammen in Mitgliedstaaten) - bei negativer Verzinsung und enormer Nachfrage nach den EU-Anleihen. /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
Das war erst der Auftakt: Zur Finanzierung wird EU-Kommission im Namen der EU bis zu €750 Milliarden auf den Finanzmärkten aufnehmen; €390 Milliarden Zuschüsse für Mitgliedstaaten, die nicht zurückgezahlt werden müssen; €360 Milliarden über Kredite. /3

ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/… Image
Read 9 tweets
23 Dec 20
HW Sinn hat es wieder getan: In seiner "Weihnachtsvorlesung" warnt er vor Hyperinflation. Er zieht direkte Linie von Hyperinflation 1923 zu Aufstieg der Nazis, erwähnt nicht, dass Nazi-Aufstieg Deflation vorausging, verstärkt durch Sparpolitik. Thread /1

Sinn hat das gleiche schon in einem langen NZZ-Interview gemacht. Ich habe das in einem Kommentar kritisiert, zumal HWS nicht nur die Geschichte verzerrt darstellt, sondern daraus auch noch verfehlte wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen ableitet. /2

In seiner Replik hatte Sinn behauptet, er sehe die Rolle der Brüning'schen Sparpolitik ähnlich wie ich, aber könne in einem Interview eben nicht alles erwähnen. In 73 Minuten "Weihnachtsvorlesung" hat er Deflation und Sparpolitik wieder nicht erwähnt. /3

handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumn…
Read 9 tweets
22 Dec 20
One of Germany’s most prominent economists, Hans-Werner Sinn, warns of hyperinflation; he links it directly to Hitler's rise to power. A distortion of history: the rise of the Nazis was preceded by deflation, exacerbated by fiscal austerity. Thread /1

braveneweurope.com/philipp-heimbe… Image
Sinn says hyperinflation after WW1 impoverished the German middle class in the Weimar Republic: "Ten years later they elected Adolf Hitler as Reich Chancellor." Policy recommendation today against hyperinflation: "tighter budget constraints" /2

nzz.ch/finanzen/hans-… Image
Sinn thus feeds a widespread misinterpretation. Mass poverty when the Nazis came to power in 1933 was not the result of hyperinflation, which at that time was ten years in the past; it was primarily a consequence of mass unemployment due to the recession in the early 1930s. /3
Read 19 tweets
30 Nov 20
Does employment protection affect unemployment? My meta-analysis on this question is now published in "Oxford Economic Papers". The average (precision-weighted) effect is zero, but data and specification choices matter for reported effects. A thread: /1

academic.oup.com/oep/advance-ar…
In theory, the effect of employment protection on unemployment is ambiguous. Reported empirical findings are mixed. Qualitative surveys are potentially misleading, but using meta-analysis can help. /2
I construct a novel data set consisting of 881 observations on the effect of employment protection (EPL) on unemployment from 75 studies. Once we correct for (mild) publication selection bias, the average effect cannot be distinguished from zero. /3
Read 6 tweets

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