Scientists investigating whether it's possible to be re-infected with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in S. Africa. Antibodies from previous infection didn't recognise new variant in 21/44 cases but 🤞 T-cells might. Precarious position & points towards need for max suppression.
Good news: we know how to control COVID. Countries have done it. We need: restrictions until #s low & buy-in of population that there's a plan, robust test/trace/isolate, and very tight border restrictions. Clear COVID, open domestic economy fully & firefight as outbreaks arise.
Countries that have the resources & political will should clearly eliminate COVID-19. Living with this virus is too dangerous to health & too destructive to the economy and society. Time to pivot from flu plan onto SARS plan. Better now than in a year's time.
We have been in recurrent lockdown cycles with no plan. We need a plan to get ourselves out of this pit with pay-off for all those who have sacrificed. People won't keep complying if they don't think there's light ahead on when life will get back to normal.
Quite simply: as new variants emerge we don’t know whether our vaccines will protect against them or whether having COVID once means you can’t get it again. Not scare-mongering but laying out facts & scientific uncertainty. Why wait and watch instead of getting ahead of this?
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Scotland going into strict restrictions tonight for Jan to handle new variant. Children under 12 still allowed to play outside in larger groups and are excluded from 2 person outside limit for meetings.
Schools remain online learning for Jan (except for vulnerable/key worker kids) bc of substantial community transmission (& need to drive this lower) & considerable uncertainty & data gaps about role of children in transmission of new variant. Precautionary approach.
If you want schools back open for in-person learning, please please abide by restrictions so that we can all work together to get community transmission down.
Happy Sunday! ❄️ Bad news: this new variant is spreading quickly & our current restrictions don’t seem to be enough. Xmas & NYE going to make it worse. Please be cautious & keep distancing/avoid indoor/crowded places!! Just need to get through this hardest period until Spring.
We all want schools open. But the challenge is keeping schools open with high transmission. Cases will keep arising in schools & bubbles sent home repeatedly. That’s not sustainable education. We all have to work together to break chains of transmission & get our numbers down.
What should govt be doing? Clear messaging is the start and using the tools we have: vaccines, mass testing, supported isolation, enhanced restrictions with economic support, pausing schools (except for certain groups) for 2-3 week to assess latest evidence & travel restrictions.
Happy Monday! ☀️ This is truly the worst time & normal to feel low- new variant spreading quickly, depths of winter, NHS under pressure. But we will get through with vaccines, testing, weather change in Spring & Summer, & continuing to look out for each other. Better days ahead!
If nothing else maybe European countries will realise by March that the East Asia & Pacific model of managing this crisis is optimal and pivot towards that. They’ve had a year to learn by then. All other roads have led to worse health & economic outcomes.
And in less than a year from detecting a novel virus, we have multiple tests, effective therapeutics & at least 3 vaccines. 👏 Just imagine where we will be in a year from now? It is not hopeless at all- loads of progress has been made. Delaying infections now makes sense.
This view completely misses that lockdown is caused by the high hospitalisation rate of Covid & pressure on health services. Which is also young people ill. And that the case fatality rate can jump to 10% if people, young or old, can’t get medical care like fluids or oxygen.
And to be clear, I’m not pro-lockdown. I’m anti-death, anti-disability & anti-economic pain & unemployment. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Happy Friday! ☀️ More good news: Moderna vaccine about to be approved in US & EU. Who would have thought we'd have at least 3 (!) effective & safe vaccines less than a year from identifying completely new virus (SARS-CoV-2)? Science is amazing. bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-…
Still big unknowns: 1. Do these vaccines stop transmission (people being infectious) or just severe COVID-19? 2. How long do they provide immunity for? 3. Will this become a yearly vaccination project for entire populations? 4. Do they prevent Long Covid (morbidity)?
With talk of mutation/strains, scientists concerned about: 1. Will new strain spread faster making suppression harder? 2. Will new strain have worse health outcomes? 3. Will new strain evade vaccine &/or naturally induced antibodies/t-cells?
We don't yet have answers to these.