Happy Monday! ☀️ This is truly the worst time & normal to feel low- new variant spreading quickly, depths of winter, NHS under pressure. But we will get through with vaccines, testing, weather change in Spring & Summer, & continuing to look out for each other. Better days ahead!
If nothing else maybe European countries will realise by March that the East Asia & Pacific model of managing this crisis is optimal and pivot towards that. They’ve had a year to learn by then. All other roads have led to worse health & economic outcomes.
And in less than a year from detecting a novel virus, we have multiple tests, effective therapeutics & at least 3 vaccines. 👏 Just imagine where we will be in a year from now? It is not hopeless at all- loads of progress has been made. Delaying infections now makes sense.
If you’re really low, reach out to someone- or even here on twitter- you’ll be pleasantly surprised to find others might feel the same & be able to offer you support & warmth even virtually. We are all connected in this crisis.
Getting loads of questions on re-opening schools & the new variant: honest answer is I don’t know yet. Assessing emerging evidence this week & need to analyse and reflect on what it shows. Will share my thinking on schools once I’ve had time to evaluate robustly & properly.
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This view completely misses that lockdown is caused by the high hospitalisation rate of Covid & pressure on health services. Which is also young people ill. And that the case fatality rate can jump to 10% if people, young or old, can’t get medical care like fluids or oxygen.
And to be clear, I’m not pro-lockdown. I’m anti-death, anti-disability & anti-economic pain & unemployment. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Happy Friday! ☀️ More good news: Moderna vaccine about to be approved in US & EU. Who would have thought we'd have at least 3 (!) effective & safe vaccines less than a year from identifying completely new virus (SARS-CoV-2)? Science is amazing. bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-…
Still big unknowns: 1. Do these vaccines stop transmission (people being infectious) or just severe COVID-19? 2. How long do they provide immunity for? 3. Will this become a yearly vaccination project for entire populations? 4. Do they prevent Long Covid (morbidity)?
With talk of mutation/strains, scientists concerned about: 1. Will new strain spread faster making suppression harder? 2. Will new strain have worse health outcomes? 3. Will new strain evade vaccine &/or naturally induced antibodies/t-cells?
We don't yet have answers to these.
Keep being asked questions about meeting/travel over the holidays that people want to hear an emotionally reassuring & comforting answer. I can't do that as a public health scientist right now & have to be straight, even if unpopular.
COVID doesn't care that it's Christmas or Thanksgiving. It spreads in indoor, poorly ventilated settings esp households. If you want to safely see family, check local prevalence, get outside for walks, ventilate indoor settings & isolate for 2 weeks before seeing vulnerable ppl.
You can also get tested (Boots, etc) before seeing family/travel but virus incubation period makes this tricky. Could test negative and be infectious & positive the next day. 2 negative tests several days apart can help mitigate risk.
Top German scientists: 1. Herd immunity not possible bc immunity too short. 2. Not feasible to go 'shield vulnerable' approach bc impossible to fully identify & isolate them. 3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus. mpg.de/15426163/stell…
They suggest that what works is: 1. Test/trace/isolate 2. Mask-wearing 3. Distancing 4. Travel restrictions 5. Identifying & stopping super-spreading events. 5. Good guidance to public on what is risky & not.
Receiving notes from those w/ risk factors (asthma, overweight, hypertension, cancer survivors, diabetes) or elderly who are saddened by their lives being portrayed as worthless (ie acceptable loss, would die anyways). Please remember this is not the view of the silent majority.
Things not looking good in the UK (massive understatement). We all need to act like we could have COVID-19 & minimise close physical contact with those outside our household. Need to avoid awful decisions about COVID v non COVID harm.
And if hospitals start filling up with patients arriving needing emergency care, going to put other NHS services at risk. Everyone loses if numbers continue to increase.
I won’t say much more bc I’m sure everyone is sick of my repeating of the same message for months now. But I truly hope we will not pay for all the summer holidays abroad with winter lockdowns. nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opi…