This view completely misses that lockdown is caused by the high hospitalisation rate of Covid & pressure on health services. Which is also young people ill. And that the case fatality rate can jump to 10% if people, young or old, can’t get medical care like fluids or oxygen.
And to be clear, I’m not pro-lockdown. I’m anti-death, anti-disability & anti-economic pain & unemployment. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
I will continue to speak up for those in elderly & vulnerable groups and offer constructive suggestions moving forward. I will continue to try to take the burden off exhausted and stretched healthcare staff. This matters too much as to who we are as a community and as a society.
Crucially, the more the virus circulates, the more likely it is that mutations and variants emerge, making it even harder to suppress. This could make our current vaccines ineffective, or lead to reinfections.
Happy Friday! ☀️ More good news: Moderna vaccine about to be approved in US & EU. Who would have thought we'd have at least 3 (!) effective & safe vaccines less than a year from identifying completely new virus (SARS-CoV-2)? Science is amazing. bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-…
Still big unknowns: 1. Do these vaccines stop transmission (people being infectious) or just severe COVID-19? 2. How long do they provide immunity for? 3. Will this become a yearly vaccination project for entire populations? 4. Do they prevent Long Covid (morbidity)?
With talk of mutation/strains, scientists concerned about: 1. Will new strain spread faster making suppression harder? 2. Will new strain have worse health outcomes? 3. Will new strain evade vaccine &/or naturally induced antibodies/t-cells?
We don't yet have answers to these.
Keep being asked questions about meeting/travel over the holidays that people want to hear an emotionally reassuring & comforting answer. I can't do that as a public health scientist right now & have to be straight, even if unpopular.
COVID doesn't care that it's Christmas or Thanksgiving. It spreads in indoor, poorly ventilated settings esp households. If you want to safely see family, check local prevalence, get outside for walks, ventilate indoor settings & isolate for 2 weeks before seeing vulnerable ppl.
You can also get tested (Boots, etc) before seeing family/travel but virus incubation period makes this tricky. Could test negative and be infectious & positive the next day. 2 negative tests several days apart can help mitigate risk.
Top German scientists: 1. Herd immunity not possible bc immunity too short. 2. Not feasible to go 'shield vulnerable' approach bc impossible to fully identify & isolate them. 3. Potential serious, long-term damage to young/healthy also from this virus. mpg.de/15426163/stell…
They suggest that what works is: 1. Test/trace/isolate 2. Mask-wearing 3. Distancing 4. Travel restrictions 5. Identifying & stopping super-spreading events. 5. Good guidance to public on what is risky & not.
Receiving notes from those w/ risk factors (asthma, overweight, hypertension, cancer survivors, diabetes) or elderly who are saddened by their lives being portrayed as worthless (ie acceptable loss, would die anyways). Please remember this is not the view of the silent majority.
Things not looking good in the UK (massive understatement). We all need to act like we could have COVID-19 & minimise close physical contact with those outside our household. Need to avoid awful decisions about COVID v non COVID harm.
And if hospitals start filling up with patients arriving needing emergency care, going to put other NHS services at risk. Everyone loses if numbers continue to increase.
I won’t say much more bc I’m sure everyone is sick of my repeating of the same message for months now. But I truly hope we will not pay for all the summer holidays abroad with winter lockdowns. nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opi…
Questions I get from young people: 1. Am I immune from this virus? -> No, you are likely to have mild symptoms, but this is a nasty virus & you could face a long recovery. You don't want to get COVID- you could have an underlying health issues you don't know about. (1/n)
2. Should I just get infected & get an 'immunity passport'? -> We still don't know how long immunity lasts, & there have been some instances of documented re-infection. We don't yet know if 2nd time will be asymptomatic re-infection or more severe & how rare/common it is. (2/n).
3. If only young people are getting COVID, then what's the problem? -> No country has been able to fully shield the elderly/vulnerable as they live with us & among us. Vulnerable young = hypertension, diabetes, asthma, overweight, cancer survivors, immuno-compromised. (3/n)