Thread by @DHStokyo

Ok, guys. Clearly we are in great need of a story. The story of what happened the last time the Senate had an equal 50-50 split.

Don't assume you know the end to this story by the way. Ok, here goes. // THREAD

(By the way, if anyone is wondering, yes, I'm responding with annoyance at everyone irritated that Chuck Schumer is "working with" Mitch McConnell on the rules that will govern the Senate.)

First of all, yes, Kamala Harris is the VP and is the tie breaking vote. When there is a vote. Have you seen any votes happening in this discussion between Schumer and McConnell. No. Because they get to decide. There is no tie breaking vote on rule making.

The reason why we know this is because in 2000, under George W. Bush, there was a 50-50 split in the Senate. Majority Leader Trent Lott (R) and Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) did EXACTLY what Schumer and McConnell are doing today.

They split committee assignments. The funding for staffers and office space were equally split. This is NORMAL.

Back then, the Republicans held the committee chairs because Dick Cheney was the VP, so they had the advantage.

But here's the fun part of the story from President Bush's day. Jim Jeffords, at the time a very moderate Republican Senator from Vermont, got so fed up with his caucus (over too many tax cuts for the rich and not enough money going to special education for the disabled)...

...that he left the Republican party. He became an Independent and caucused with the Democrats. It was a huge blow to Bush and handed a clear majority to the Democrats now that they essentially had 51 votes.

Now, can you think of any Republican that might get irritated with their own party and might become an Independent? (I can.)

So, some straight talk. Yes, having the edge with VP Harris will be great, but a 50-50 split in the Senate is going to be tough for Joe Biden. Why? Well, because he needs to keep his ideologically broad caucus to agree and stick together.

He literally cannot lose a single senator. Now some will say that means that the more moderate Democrats like Manchin and Sinema will have more leverage, but honestly, if they are on board, you’d still need to make sure senators like Gillibrand and Warren are still on board.

There endeth the story. To recap: 1) Read your history before you freak out about Schumer and McConnell working together, 2) 50-50 Senate are TOUGH, and 3) keep an eye out for a disgruntled Republican to go Independent.

Oh, and subscribe to my blog #PoliticalCharge. I wrote this primer on how 50-50 split Senates work back in November. politicalcharge.org/2020/11/13/how…