Welsh political landscape now starting to resemble Scotland more than England.
Rise of @Plaid_Cymru means that Wales now a 3 way split with once strong liberal vote drifting below the Greens.
As I’ve long advocated, due to this Wales is likely to be THE electoral key to 2024.
Rise of @Plaid_Cymru means that Wales now a 3 way split with once strong liberal vote drifting below the Greens.
As I’ve long advocated, due to this Wales is likely to be THE electoral key to 2024.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1351302638646816773
2/
The number of Tory held marginals where the combined opposition vote vastly outweighs the Conservative one is both huge given Wales relative size - and easy fruit for an even relatively discreet electoral alliance.
The number of Tory held marginals where the combined opposition vote vastly outweighs the Conservative one is both huge given Wales relative size - and easy fruit for an even relatively discreet electoral alliance.
3/
However the conservative vote in Wales is likely to hold up due to the higher number of English - often retired - voters compared with Scotland.
Without an electoral pact a large number of seats would essentially be won by English voters voting for an English centered party.
However the conservative vote in Wales is likely to hold up due to the higher number of English - often retired - voters compared with Scotland.
Without an electoral pact a large number of seats would essentially be won by English voters voting for an English centered party.
4/
The electoral maths is complex - because while PC generally compete for Labour votes - their best chance is in both combining to win Tory held marginals.
The electoral maths is complex - because while PC generally compete for Labour votes - their best chance is in both combining to win Tory held marginals.
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