🧵 A lil’ late to this but important enough an issue that I’d like to flag why I have a slightly different perspective from Jeff on this. CAATSA sanctions wld hv a greater impact on US-India relations than GSP/tariffs & cld set back 🇮🇳🇺🇸 coop & Indians' view of US. Here’s why 1/
https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1350276204469891073
2/ A major reason for Indian hesitations about the US historically has been the sense that as a partner it is
- unreliable
- attaches too many strings
- weaponizes interdependence
(thus curtailing Indian strategic autonomy)
- unreliable
- attaches too many strings
- weaponizes interdependence
(thus curtailing Indian strategic autonomy)
3/ Comes from India seeing US
- cut off supply of mil equipment, parts in 1960s in midst of a crisis
- stepping back in 1971 from promises to help India if China attacked
-post-nuclear test sanctions
India-US rels might hv “survived” those but they were significant setbacks
- cut off supply of mil equipment, parts in 1960s in midst of a crisis
- stepping back in 1971 from promises to help India if China attacked
-post-nuclear test sanctions
India-US rels might hv “survived” those but they were significant setbacks
4/ CAATSA sanctions wld reinforce every one of the 3 Indian concerns abt the US
They are often indeed highlighted by those in India who hv criticized Vajpayee, Singh & Modi for deepening ties
+ will be used by Russia that has been trying to limit India-US ties - & even by China
They are often indeed highlighted by those in India who hv criticized Vajpayee, Singh & Modi for deepening ties
+ will be used by Russia that has been trying to limit India-US ties - & even by China
5/ CAATSA sanctions wld even be used by US allies (esp France) who will argue that India shld buy military equipment from them rather than American cos.
All these actors will particularly highlight that this is once again playing out in midst of India facing a natsec crisis
All these actors will particularly highlight that this is once again playing out in midst of India facing a natsec crisis
6/ Ironically, ongoing crisis w/ China - & US diplo, mil, intel support - has been one that has reminded ppl in India abt when US helped India in the past
(rather than the other memory many Indians have...of the US working w/ China & Pak vs India in 1971 & then in Afg in 80s)
(rather than the other memory many Indians have...of the US working w/ China & Pak vs India in 1971 & then in Afg in 80s)
7/ Folks often talk abt the US bet on India. Well, Indian PMs hv made a bet on the US too—despite opposition from many in strategic community & w/in their own govts/parties who think the US is too risky as a partner.
US sceptics will use CAATSA sanctions to say “I told you so”
US sceptics will use CAATSA sanctions to say “I told you so”
8/ Why should the US care?
Well, one of the reasons India cooperates w/ the US across a range of domains, working w/ American counterparts to manage differences is because of US strategic utility.
Don’t expect sanctions not to have an impact on this Indian cooperation/buy-in.
Well, one of the reasons India cooperates w/ the US across a range of domains, working w/ American counterparts to manage differences is because of US strategic utility.
Don’t expect sanctions not to have an impact on this Indian cooperation/buy-in.
9/ PM Modi said when to a jt session of Congress that 🇮🇳🇺🇸 hv overcome the hesitations of history
I beg to differ. Those hesitations still lurk. And CAATSA sanctions will bring them back to the fore, introducing them to new generations of Indians who haven’t been US sceptics.
I beg to differ. Those hesitations still lurk. And CAATSA sanctions will bring them back to the fore, introducing them to new generations of Indians who haven’t been US sceptics.
10/ Will sanctions dissuade India from buying equipment from Moscow, much as sanctions dissuaded India from buying oil from Iran or Venezuela, or limiting its 🇷🇺 rel?
History tells us that it might actually hv the opposite effect (+ oil suppliers are easier to replace).
History tells us that it might actually hv the opposite effect (+ oil suppliers are easier to replace).
11/ With its close partnership w/ China -- & showing off abt how its strengthening the PLA -- & dallying w/ Pakistan, Russia is doing enough to affect its image in India adversely.
Why come in its way?
Why come in its way?
12/ At the end of the day, this will be a political call, based in part on Biden admin’s judgment abt India’s utility re its priorities
Meanwhile, longer the sanctions-waiver-or-not is kept dangling, the more US sceptics in India & those seeking to limit 🇮🇳🇺🇸 ties will make hay
Meanwhile, longer the sanctions-waiver-or-not is kept dangling, the more US sceptics in India & those seeking to limit 🇮🇳🇺🇸 ties will make hay
13/ Russia is one of the stickier issues btw US & India cuz they see it quite differently (incl w/r/t China problem - 🇮🇳 hopes it'll be part of the solution; 🇺🇸 thinks it'll be part of the problem)
But CAATSA ain't gonna resolve the differences -- & even exacerbates some of them
But CAATSA ain't gonna resolve the differences -- & even exacerbates some of them
14/ Ironically, CAATSA might have been designed to limit Russia's options & countries' ties w/ Russia...
...but it could serve to limit US ties with some countries.
Regardless, not helpful for it to hang above the US-India rels like the sword of Damocles.
...but it could serve to limit US ties with some countries.
Regardless, not helpful for it to hang above the US-India rels like the sword of Damocles.
15/ I shld add, I say all this as someone who has major concerns re Russian reliability, its history of trying to use mil dependence to limit 🇮🇳 ties w others, & its deepening ties w/ China, whose military Putin notes 🇷🇺 is helping strengthen even as it is killing Indian soldiers
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