Good news in #Covid19Ireland pos-swabs with just 1682 at 9% positivity. Tuesday is often the lowest day each week with Wednesday being quite a bit higher and there were 'only' 18559 tests but continued descent is welcome, if this pattern continues... /1
last Tuesday was 2521 so this weeks 1682 is 67% of that. A weekly reduction at that rate would go
Jan26th 1127
F2 755
F9 506
Feb 16 229
F23 220
March2 148
M9 99
This is overly optimistic as it starts with lowest day of week, more realistic using 3 day averages ../2
Using a 3 day average of reduction & cases gives 2179 reducing to 68% each week getting us under 100 cases a day in 8 weeks / mid March
Jan26 1479
Feb2 1003
F9 681
Feb16 462
F23 314
March2 213
M9 144
M16 98
M23 67
/3
Important to note though quite a small change that reduced the reduction to 78% of previous week would mean it takes 13 and not 8 weeks to get under 100
1699
1326
1034
806
629
491
383
299
233
182
142
110
86
The new variant rising as proportion of cases could make a change of that size, as could partial reopening of schools, more people returning to work etc. On the other had more people working from home could shorten the 8 weeks to 6. Quite small changes have big consequences
Cases were over 300 higher than swabs today and in fact cases have been higher than swabs for the last 6 days. It would you wonder if the backlog being cleared 2nd time around also may in fact have had another bit of backlog.

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More from @andrewflood

20 Jan
Increase in positive swabs (2791) to be expected on Weds & anticipated in Mondays GP referrals. Tues to Weds last week saw day to day 160% increase, this is 156% so comparable. This is also a 2.4% increase in positivity to 11.5%, last week it was a 2.5% increase /1 Image
2791 is 71% of last Weds figure but averaging over 3 days we have 2128 swabs with a reduction of 68% on equivalent days last week which same as yesterday gets us under 100 cases a day 8 weeks from now on March 17th. So no big change in pattern despite apparent one day rise /2
That weekly 3 day average reduction sequence now looks like
1449 - Jan27
986 - Feb3
672 - F10
457 - F17
311 - F24
212 - March3
144 - M10
98 - M17
67
46
31
21
Read 5 tweets
20 Jan
Post this lockdown we are going to again be faced with a lobbyist demand for careless rushed opening based this time on the idea that IFR will have fallen because those most at risk have been vaccinated. This sounds sensible but is another recipe for disaster /1 Image
Core problem is that over half those who were hospitalised were under 65 & about 60% of those who went into ICU. The 6k cases a day peak in January exhausted ICU capacity, forcing cancellation of routine surgery & turning operating theatres into surge ICU. /2 ht @1987Andrewk Image
161 under 65s had died to December, stats on ICU admission to that date suggest that without such access for 385 who needed it 2 to 3 times as many would have died. 2768 needed hospitalisation from those ages, presumably without access many (50%) would also have died. /3 Image
Read 10 tweets
20 Jan
24hr #Covid19Ireland hospital occupancy down from 1954 to 1919. That's 30 more than discharge - admission so suggests at least 30 deaths in period, probably more as we'd expect some hospital acquired infections, now clear apparent fall in these probably because of deaths /1 Image
135 admissions is 7% of yesterdays occupancy so still down from 10% of last week. However it's also 3rd highest figure of entire pandemic & puts on hold hope of a descent rather than a plateau. May reflect slowness of over 65 cases to reduce in comparison with rest /2 Image
Available beds at 8am yesterday down on 518 previous day, this isn't reflected in growth in hospitalisation so may be surge ward/beds that had been opened was closed again, or wards being lost because of impact of Covid19 on HCWs so staff shortages? CUH dropped 33 /3 Image
Read 5 tweets
19 Jan
First drop in #COVID19ireland hospital occupancy since 12th December - new admissions still high at 115 (6% of occupancy) but discharges at highest ever at 153. Good news but discharges are much higher on Mondays (only 39 Sun, 45 Sat) because of weekend so not a pattern yet /1
115 admissions was slightly up on last 2 days & 7th highest of entire pandemic, all of those highs being in last two weeks. 24hr admissions is 73% of peak this day last week, roughly in line with rate of week on week swab reduction which is more definite at this point /2
Available hospital beds increased slightly by 2 at yesterdays 8am report so even if the actual reduction is an early one off it is looking unlikely conventional beds are going to over run capacity, this however was always secondary to the threat to ICU capacity /3
Read 7 tweets
18 Jan
1910 #Covid19Ireland pos-swabs but Monday so often low - stall thats 65% on last Monday's 2922 which is good. Positivity at 10.2%, almost half last Mondays 19.6% with about 1000 fewer tests. /1 Image
At that 65% reduction a week rate today's 1910 reduce below 100 in 7 weeks
Jan 25 - 1241
Feb 1 - 807
F8 - 545
F15 - 341
F22 - 333
1M - 144
8 March - 94
Obviously comparing a swab against the swabs on the same day the previous week is fairly crude but the last 3 days have seen similar rates at 60%, 68.5% & todays 65%. Patterns of testing are similar week to week so as ballpark instant measure it gives some idea of where we are
Read 7 tweets
18 Jan
#COVID19ireland hospital occupancy up 100 from 1923 to 2023, back to admissions at 10% of occupancy in 24hr which is of concern. Also 24 potential hospital acquired cases to get to that increase when you account for 39 discharges /1 Image
Looking at just the admissions suggests a plateau rather than falling much. It's the 7th highest 24 hour figure of the pandemic all of which are in last 9 days /2 covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospital… Image
516 beds available yesterday morning - this rose slightly on the previous day with Beaumont add a lot of additional beds, perhaps the opening of a ward? Note however a large fraction of these available beds are in CHI (children's hospitals) /3 Image
Read 6 tweets

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