NEW:
Government/ industry sources confirm US-UK “mini deal” negotiations, revealed by US Trade Rep Lighthizer to BBC last month, failed to progress last week, after concerns about Airbus backing. Means Scottish whisky/cashmere tariffs continue...will be picked up with Biden admin
UK Govt source: “Ultimately we came close to resolving an intractable 16 year dispute[airbus-boeing], but didn’t quite get there. Any deal must be balanced and work for the whole UK and all of UK industry... understand pain of affected industry”... (ie whisky etc)
Net result is that Scotch whisky/ cashmere tariffs remain in place at least for a couple of months while new Biden Trade Rep Tai is confirmed, but then it’s a matter for their policy.
Lowering UK bourbon tariffs in separate steel dispute also in the mix here
Also told that the events in Washington DC were a factor too in trying to close a deal so late in the Trump term. It definitely was quite close - but interesting example of trade freedom requiring choices, in this case immediately prioritising whisky industry or Airbus...
Many had expected a reduction in US whisky tariffs for the UK to be an important rhetorical weapon for the Government in Scottish elections esp with Brexit-sceptics in electorate - used as an example of post Brexit trade independence benefits - but not yet materialised.
As I reported here - aerospace sources were furious when the tariffs on Boeing were unilaterally paused, saying departure from EU position broke promises to keep to it made by previous Business sec - that argument appears to have won for now:
Full Lighthizer interview here where he probably gives the most detailed public defence of what Trumpian economics was trying to achieve as regards working class Americans - is here: bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00…
Scottish Whisky association @ScotchWhiskySWA say there is “deep disappointment” across industry that they are “paying the price for an aerospace dispute that has nothing to do with us” and that has caused mounting losses of £450m plus...
interesting - minutes from EU health security committee, still attended by the UK, from time new variant exploded - UK told EU Early Warning and Response System about it on 14th December. A week later, a day after tier 4 extension UK invited to explain all here...:
In return ... 20 mainly EU nations respond at the Committee detailing varying degrees of travel ban imposed on UK at that time...
Eg above Ireland said that the restrictions should be strengthened and “should be uniform around the EU”...
European Commission “DG Move” immediately raised issue of moving PCR testing away from borders to avoid “severe disruptions” and keep trade moving...
Extraordinary Scottish fisherman’s Federation letter - body most often quoted by ministers/ best access to Govt/ backers of Brexit approach now saying Govt has left it in “worst of both worlds...many in seafood supply chain fear they will not survive..” sff.co.uk/letter-to-prim…
SFF letter to PM: “You and your Government have spun a line about a 25% uplift in quota for the UK, but you know this is not true, and your deal does not deliver that...”
This was organisation that coined phrase “sea of opportunity” to describe post Brexit fishing opps, then enthusiastically taken up by Government ...
now telling PM claims on quota uplift “not true” and means “failure” to deliver promises, anger and now “chaos” for exporters
Mixed loads fish exports (groupage) now further delayed.
exporting now a process requiring 26 key steps, rather than 1 page form...teething issue perhaps for eg single loads salmon, but this level of non tariff barrier permanent structural issue for others bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla…
The structural issue is this - the UK chose GB to be a third country, with less agrifood alignment than eg NZ, and the EU’s strict import procedures for third countries are designed for niche exotic stuff mainly, not the mass import of perishable goods...
The negotiation clearly prioritised freedom [from the EU] over freeflow [of goods to it]..but Govt downplays latter, eg PM stating “there will be no non tariff barriers” and below on a visit to fishing communities ahead of GE19 “we don’t have unnecessary form filling”...
Dutch customs on Dutch TV taking away drivers’ ham sandwiches on ferry from UK arriving at Hook of Holland, also put seized food shopping (Waitrose?) on facebook - this is a standard implication of Brexit deal, long indicated in prep documents both in UK and EU...
The interesting thing here will be how this new prohibition (without correct documentation) on free flow of even personal food exports from UK to EU (and eventually vice versa) will be applied on short straits at Coquelles? Calais? UK side juxtaposed controls? Not at all?
Dutch incredibly organised on full implications of Brexit for their customs - three years’ ago Dutch customs developed online portal explaining full implications of non-tariff barriers, advised small businesses not to use GB parts (rules of origin) etc
Extraordinarily wide levels of spread over past fortnight, partic between Dec 29th and Jan 5th...
Eg Liverpool has gone from green (10-49 cases/100k) to dark purple (800+) in less than a month:
Even more noteworthy - Liverpool is now at 934 cases/100k (jan 5th) just a week before on dec 29th was 314 (ie jumped two categories in one week) four weeks before (dec 8th) it was 91.