It seems nationally there's some political stuff going on today & tomorrow, whatev, but here in Pittsburgh we are all only #onhere for the sudden news that we have a contested mayoral primary ahead: & all the reasons that's Actually a Good Thing (whoever wins!). Eg, 👇
For my part I am just on Team Democracy, & from that point of view am really hopeful this contested race may make progress in rectifying the severe voter registration deficit that COVID-19 falling in presidential year 2020 caused in Pittsburgh's most marginalized neighborhoods👇
The gray collumns are total registered voters in 2019; the yellow are 2020. Whereas 2015 to 2016 saw bumps up in voter registration across all sets of precincts, 2019-20 saw declines, esp. 1) in student-heavy precincts (the middle sets below, where Trump got 10-30% of the vote) &
2) precincts where Trump16 got under 10% of the vote: heavily African American neighborhoods, where rather than rising as in 2015-16 & '18-19, total regist'd voters *fell* in 2020. Extra outreach needed to happen this yr to keep 2008 registrants active & on rolls: Didn't happen☹️
Those same heavily African American precincts had lower uptake on mail-in ballots (which includes votes cast early in person at satellite locations) than other precincts in the city: will be important to identify & work to rectify barriers people faced in voting amid pandemic
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I've been chewing over this substack post fr @danpfeiffer, bc on the one hand he hits *so many* important points & on the other it makes visible the huge gap between what "grassroots activsts" look like from 30,000 ft—even to best-intentioned observers—& the reality on the ground
I spent 2 h last night at the monthly mtg of a Dem women's group in a very red PA county. Two women founded the group in Dec 2016. 4 ys later they are plugging away, with a dozen+ people via zoom on a January mid-pandemic Monday, brainstorming recruitment for boro council races
Two years ago it was jarring to hear nationally amplified "Resistance" leaders proudly announce they were about to guide "their" groups into voter outreach: when the actual groups on the ground had been all-in to local/regional electoral action since 2017 democracyjournal.org/arguments/midd…
& he says it all nonchalant, like he doesn't realize that w this one banner he can summon to his side all the supervols he needs to campaign on whatever the heck msg he suggests, eternally loyal bc someone finally stopped undercuttng their lived truth of politcs in their communty
ok for anyone here who has not lived the yard signs wars 1st hand: Local volunteers everywhere passionately believe in the impact of yard signs. Dem campaign pros, esp since data-driven methods/metrics became gospel, largely don't. Here's the skeptic case:
I feel I need to mention periodically the size of the gap btwn center-to-left political discourse, still debating Dem messaging & activists' slogans... & the reality of our actually-existing public sphere, where a shared FoxNews item re Fauci begging for caution over Xmas elicits
This is from a public, nominally non-political community Fb group in SWPA with over 50,000 members. It's lost cats & plumber recs & holiday charity drives. & this
I'm not cherry-picking replies here. 40+ people commented after the FoxNews item with Fauci urging caution over COVID was posted last night, and it's this all the way down
I don't know who needs to hear this but: the feeding frenzy currently underway over address lists to send postcards to voters in Georgia is evidence of a progressive volunteer universe that has been deeply misled about the levers of political change.
If you run a national "progressive" organization and are contributing to this, & not-incidentally driving up your engagement stats & goosing your own fundraising, shame on you. Whatever self-serving tale you're telling yourself about the greater good being advanced: inadequate
👇Both! 1)Very likely entire waste of time (v low impact of technique under best circumstances; least effective in cases of onslaught of other political info as will be here; meaningful targetng impossible given locally-ignorant actors generating lists etc
1) Always read @dhopkins1776 ! 2) something I've been thinking about writing about, in shorthand tweet: the historical trajectory of PA places means it's impossible to disaggregate the impact of fracking fr the other historical processes that have shaped the communities involved
This is fracking in PA. It's shaped by underlying geology. The same geology that shaped where coal was mined and factories built and immigrants arrived from Europe and labor struggled 150-100 years ago
Which shaped where unions were formed & men won decent wages & the New Deal Democratic Party core partnership was created & crested in the 1960s. & the beneficiary communities have been losing ground ever since. & the most fortunate w/in the moving away from the party for 40 ys
Coming soon: some thoughts on PA regions & voting trends (mumbled about this earlier with @4st8 but it's really happening now: New Regions👀)
In part I wanted to work with a relatively more equal population distribution...
In part I wanted to capture the ways river towns along the Susquehanna River in central & northern PA—which tend to be home to colleges, medical ctrs, more young people, more professionals—have an evolving progressive ecosystem that shouldn't be split arbitrarily across regions