Thread
Wishing Biden well

1/
Back in 2017, today. People protested against President Trump. It continued throughout the weekend. Their message was simple enough. It even had a hashtag. “He is not my president”.
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Suppose others too were to protest today with the same hashtag #HeIsNotMyPresident. How will the media & world react? This is not a call of violence of any kind. But peaceful protest as were witnessed four years ago.
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For a president that was predicted to be kicked out of office before his term was done, President Trump did well. More than well infact. History will record his many wins.

Reducing the tax rate from 36% to 21%.USA oil independent. Peace in the Middle East. No new war started
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Stood up to China. Europe pay for NATO. Economic growth & lowest unemployment rate in the history of America. Lowest unemployment for minorities. Wage growth for the first time in decades. American firms investing back in USA. Highest start ups, new businesses. We could go on
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It will be impossible for history to whitewash his economic agenda.Trumpeconomics will become a thing. Just like Reaganeconomics was. Particularly so, if on first day Biden signs the $1.9trillion cash bonanza. The world has lost its ways. Money falling like manna from the sky
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The Trump years will be remembered as the good old years of record company earnings. And everybody had a job.
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It’s incumbent upon sane Democrats to push back on the Dem’s ridiculous plans. Like the $15 minimum wage that will destroy at least 1.5m jobs. This we are told by the bi-partisan congressional budget office.
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The media didn’t report this, but the Republican Party refused to endorse Trump’s whim to deficit fund his infrastructure spend & $2k paychecks. They stopped him.

Will Dems stop Biden? Moreso when the left in the DEM party have ridiculous spending plans.
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My interest in American politics & economics in particular vexes some. It’s simple. America sets the mood. When they print 36% of their money supply, Europe prints 60% and Zimbabwe 160%. When USA debt is unsustainable $27tn, Argentina & Zambia are so reckless they default
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America’s bad behavior resonates around the world.
The USA can afford the transgressions its institutions hold forte. Not so much the rest of the world. Where despots use the central bank to prop up failed regimes.
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Since Biden has so much worldly support, we hope he will revise his economic plan. Noone cares about what he thinks of climate change & his good intentions , as long as it’s not a cost and burdensome to citizens. $100trillon green new deal will kill the world with poverty.
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Oil, coal are still integral to most developing nations. Burdening the American tax payer with aid for poor societies is not a good idea.

So I wish Biden well. Because I am so much better than those that wished bad of Trump four years ago.
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Trump pleasantly surprised me during his four years. I hope Biden does the same. Starting with scrapping the $1.9trillion cash bonanza.
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Throughout his 47 year career Biden has not been a socialist nor leftist. He will be tested as President in control of both houses. Particularly so during this recession.

May sober minds prevail and President Biden is not swayed by the leftist.

I wish him well!

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More from @baba_nyenyedzi

18 Jan
Tourism is a forgotten sector in Zimbabwe. Treated as a step child. Despite its forgotten status it contributed 6% to GDP.

This is the same as Mining, but requires far less capital.

In good years Tourism contributes 10% to GDP. 2% more than agriculture.
Zim tourism is almost exclusively driven by domestic clients & diaspora. Very little is being done to attract international visitors who tend to spend more.

This is a snapshot of room occupancy. The number of rooms has remained stagnant for ten years since 2011. Image
The policy problem in my view is moral hazard. In cabinet & civil service you have full time farmers who go out of their way to direct attention & spending towards Agric. Mining is rot with corruption hence its visibility.

A study funded by USAID identified the policy problem Image
Read 5 tweets
13 Jan
Thread

1/
The value of Information in Economics

A most egregious & patently false allegation was made by Zanu PF as it pertains to Old Mutual Implied Rate ( OMIR). Old Mutual was accused by Zanu PF of fueling the parallel market.

Zanu PF got its wish & OM was suspended.
2/
At the time Nick Mangwana GOZ perm sec of information called OM and other dual listed firms “ fake counters”.

Chinamasa speaking on behalf of Zanu PF said “ZSE should compulsorily de-list”.

In other words. Fake counters must be compulsorily delisted.

Duly ZSE delisted OM
3/
George Charamba the President’s spokesperson & former advisor to the President Chris Mutsvangwa were even more rabid. Chris alleged the OMIR & Ecocash were staging a “ coup”.

For Charamba it was an “illicit”, “outlaw” activity becoming a security threat for the state.
Read 22 tweets
9 Jan
1/
This is a good piece in trying to uncover a dubious & scandalous transaction. But more could have been investigated and cross checked. Eg ZMDC mines only Jena is producing and it’s less than 50kgs a month & not 300kgs as the article alleges.
2/
Secondly it claims the issue of sanctions against Kuda Tagwireyi is perhaps the reason why this hocus pocus is happening. This is not true & I will explain later.
3/
Thirdly like many news items it too fails to verify information that is parroted by management & others. Eg the deal amounts & said capital raises of $1bn. This is all a ruse. Caledonia that produces 60k ounces of gold is valued at US$200m, has millions of ounces in reserves
Read 14 tweets
6 Jan
1/

Zimbabwe Economy 2021 Whither?

Economists identify threats & opportunities. They’re neither optimist nor pessimists. Their job doesn’t require them to be. Threats & opportunities often become clear when data, patterns & trends are presented.
2/
This is why in America every month the Job report is dissected & nibbled down to its bare elements. No analyst is derided nor politically attacked. In Zim, the political environment has meant many great Economists not participating fully. This is a tragedy & loss to Zim.
3/
2021 is a challenging year globally & in particular Zim. Zim economy will not grow this year but will enter year 3 of its economic depression.

While GOZ estimated the economy declined by 4% in 2019 & estimating 8% decline in 2020. World Bank have released 2019 actuals
Read 13 tweets
5 Jan
1/
Part 2

Zimbabwe Remittances

According to the World Bank/IMF data remittances into Zim averaged US$1.8bn annually over the last decade. This translates to between 10-14% of GDP.

Remittances over the decade were equivalent (on average)to 60% of GOZ tax revenues (US$3bn).
2/
Over the same period FDI was US$400m p.a

Humanitarian aid was US$500m p.a

Total bank deposits during Dollarisation were US$4bn. Private sector credit was US$3.8bn.

The absolute annual remittances of US$1.8bn & as a % of GDP show how pivotal & influential a variable it is.
3/
The US$1.8bn is unencumbered when it enters Zim. By unencumbered, it means free money without any requisite strings attached to it. For example Zim exports US$5bn, of which 80% is cost& expenses. 20% profit is unencumbered.
Read 18 tweets
2 Jan
1/
Zimbabwe Economy remittances paradox

The paradox can be stated as thus; The single most influential variable in the Zim economy is diaspora remittances, yet it’s the least researched, misunderstood & almost forgotten sub-sector.
2/
While GOZ in its incompetence can be easily forgiven, one wonders how the many multilateral organizations like WB, IMF ADB UNDP, DFID, USAID including NGO’s have played a part in the almost nonexistent , inconsistent and generally forgotten sub-sector
3/
Certainly from an Economics perspective, nothing requires more study and understanding than remittances. After 20 years of a growing diaspora, surely this is an area that demands careful policy direction since it has both opportunities & threats to an economy.
Read 20 tweets

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