1/
This is a good piece in trying to uncover a dubious & scandalous transaction. But more could have been investigated and cross checked. Eg ZMDC mines only Jena is producing and it’s less than 50kgs a month & not 300kgs as the article alleges.
2/
Secondly it claims the issue of sanctions against Kuda Tagwireyi is perhaps the reason why this hocus pocus is happening. This is not true & I will explain later.
3/
Thirdly like many news items it too fails to verify information that is parroted by management & others. Eg the deal amounts & said capital raises of $1bn. This is all a ruse. Caledonia that produces 60k ounces of gold is valued at US$200m, has millions of ounces in reserves
4/
& on going brown field projects. It too has been acquiring other assets of great potential. It’s last transactions entered into have the potential to treble its current production. It paid an initial $300k & $2.5m subject to exploration results. This was in December 2020
5/
Exploration of an initial 350ha area, of which usually a claim is 10ha will cost in total $1m. So Caledonia will spend 18 months exploring & quantifying resources for a total cost of $2m. If the resource grades are good, they will conclude the deals & pay a total of $15m.
6/
Therefore we can use Caledonia as our base case of value & exploration.

The article alleges that Sotic/Landela/Sakunda initially bought these assets. The CEO claims the assets are worth $1.5bn.

Caledonia is worth $200m. Zimplats $800m. How does the ceo come up with $1.5bn
7/
Kuvimba has not quantified its resource base. Since it’s a state owned firm it can produce its results. According to Canadian mining rules, unquantified resources have no accounting value. In other words Kuvimba holds a call option , that may or may Not be valuable.
8/
These deals started happening in 2 years ago in 2018. Caledonia takes 18 months to explore & $2m. I can only guess that Sakunda established the real worth of the assets they had bought. & Kuvimba is purely an exit strategy.
9/
Gold is sold to Fidelity. Fidelity sells its gold to SA. If the assets were valuable compared to the cost paid for them they would not be in GOZ hands. The curious inclusion of $1bn debt needed to fund its operations is the key that gives it away
10/
Only GOZ with its numerous guarantees & back flips has the potential to access that kind of debt. Zimplats can’t. No private entity can.

For Caledonia if the exploration results in conamara turn out negative, it walks away having paid $300k & $1m in exploration
11/
It’s easy to see why Kuvimba has GOZ with 65%. Its an exit strategy for whoever had bought Freda,Shamva,ZimAlloys , Bindura. Something went horribly wrong in the last 2 years.
12/
My attempt as well as Zimlive could be accused of speculating. But why is it that Kuvimba has not provided public information memo or deal document carried out by professionals etc. Even Mugabe knew this was necessary during that other indigenisation hocus pocus period.
13/
It’s even scary that Parliament is perched asleep on the bench like a dodo. Another state owned company is about to acquire $1bn debt. Never mind the arbitrary parcelling of shareholding.

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More from @baba_nyenyedzi

6 Jan
1/

Zimbabwe Economy 2021 Whither?

Economists identify threats & opportunities. They’re neither optimist nor pessimists. Their job doesn’t require them to be. Threats & opportunities often become clear when data, patterns & trends are presented.
2/
This is why in America every month the Job report is dissected & nibbled down to its bare elements. No analyst is derided nor politically attacked. In Zim, the political environment has meant many great Economists not participating fully. This is a tragedy & loss to Zim.
3/
2021 is a challenging year globally & in particular Zim. Zim economy will not grow this year but will enter year 3 of its economic depression.

While GOZ estimated the economy declined by 4% in 2019 & estimating 8% decline in 2020. World Bank have released 2019 actuals
Read 13 tweets
5 Jan
1/
Part 2

Zimbabwe Remittances

According to the World Bank/IMF data remittances into Zim averaged US$1.8bn annually over the last decade. This translates to between 10-14% of GDP.

Remittances over the decade were equivalent (on average)to 60% of GOZ tax revenues (US$3bn).
2/
Over the same period FDI was US$400m p.a

Humanitarian aid was US$500m p.a

Total bank deposits during Dollarisation were US$4bn. Private sector credit was US$3.8bn.

The absolute annual remittances of US$1.8bn & as a % of GDP show how pivotal & influential a variable it is.
3/
The US$1.8bn is unencumbered when it enters Zim. By unencumbered, it means free money without any requisite strings attached to it. For example Zim exports US$5bn, of which 80% is cost& expenses. 20% profit is unencumbered.
Read 18 tweets
2 Jan
1/
Zimbabwe Economy remittances paradox

The paradox can be stated as thus; The single most influential variable in the Zim economy is diaspora remittances, yet it’s the least researched, misunderstood & almost forgotten sub-sector.
2/
While GOZ in its incompetence can be easily forgiven, one wonders how the many multilateral organizations like WB, IMF ADB UNDP, DFID, USAID including NGO’s have played a part in the almost nonexistent , inconsistent and generally forgotten sub-sector
3/
Certainly from an Economics perspective, nothing requires more study and understanding than remittances. After 20 years of a growing diaspora, surely this is an area that demands careful policy direction since it has both opportunities & threats to an economy.
Read 20 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/ 2017 vs 2020 Economics

Whatever the many reasons for the coup. The aftermath has been an economic disaster. This is instructive, since Mugabe was a monumental failure in Economics.

I wish to stick to economic facts &figures. I restrict myself exclusively to GOZ & RBZ stats
2/
To be fair to Mnangagwa, as President he is fed a lot of misinformation & politically convenient gibberish by those closest to him & security clusters bent on personal enrichment than national well being.

I say this, because some of the issues are too simple to understand.
3/
Mnangagwa can never commit harakiri ( Japanese suicide by cutting one’s belly) if facts & figures were honestly presented to him. Yet we saw Mugabe commit harakiri. He died a sad death while his lieutenants are now in power. Where the lieutenants honest to Mugabe...
Read 29 tweets
14 Dec 20
1/ The state of the Zim Economy. Looking ahead.

In August 2017, supermarkets were breaming with product,albeit an ominous cloud hung over the state. The black market for forex reached 40% premium from 1:1 gedye.

Inflation was only 4.83%. But even the Herald had no good news
2/ Fast forward to Dec 2020, two years of negative growth makes Zim an economic depression. Technically Zim is in an ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. Coupled with high inflation, it’s the worst kind. STAGFLATION.

Yet, pundits & GOZ maintain a happy festive is to be had.
3/ I have noticed the new regime does not take kindly to debate. Let alone robust debate. This is seen by how much gusto in spin is spent by GOZ in ridiculous propositions such as Budget surplus & now $1bn in FX reserves.

There is a dangerous flirtation with the futile
Read 24 tweets
17 Nov 20
National Development strategy document reveals quite a lot. I will raise technical questions so the minister can answer. The Minister is a math whiz kid, yet a whole document is laden with arithmetic problems. Forget the 1000’s of words. Focus here
1. Treasury cannot change numbers randomly . The 2019 GDP according to Treasury was $18.5bn while the NDS has 2020 at $13.1bn using the official exchange rate. That’s a 30% decline in GDP. And not 4%.
2. The NDS assumes a population of 11.3m in 2020. This is less than the last census, & way less than the current 15/16m.

Most curious is the 58.8% jump in GNI per capita to 1842.2 from 1159.8 yet real GDP is supposed to rise by just 7%. Does it mean the population will half?
Read 8 tweets

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