Thread

1/
The value of Information in Economics

A most egregious & patently false allegation was made by Zanu PF as it pertains to Old Mutual Implied Rate ( OMIR). Old Mutual was accused by Zanu PF of fueling the parallel market.

Zanu PF got its wish & OM was suspended.
2/
At the time Nick Mangwana GOZ perm sec of information called OM and other dual listed firms “ fake counters”.

Chinamasa speaking on behalf of Zanu PF said “ZSE should compulsorily de-list”.

In other words. Fake counters must be compulsorily delisted.

Duly ZSE delisted OM
3/
George Charamba the President’s spokesperson & former advisor to the President Chris Mutsvangwa were even more rabid. Chris alleged the OMIR & Ecocash were staging a “ coup”.

For Charamba it was an “illicit”, “outlaw” activity becoming a security threat for the state.
4/
In its turn, Old Mutual kowtowed to the Zanu PF demands to delist. It was not interested in a fight. Especially one that had zero material impact on its business.

It’s cowering statement simply said it would comply.
5/
Yet, the biggest loser in all this was the Zimbabwean pensioner. Half the share register of Old Mutual was held by pension funds who used OM liquidity to pay monthly obligations. Old Mutual as the 3rd largest counter on the ZSE was big enough to attract foreign investors.
6/
The shares of OM on the ZSE in fact & substance have ZERO to do with OM business. OM shares on the ZSE were predicated on the performance of OM plc.

Local investors prohibited from investing abroad could participate in OM plc. i.e invest in a multinational with zero Zim risk
7/
OM zim operations have ZERO to do with OM plc shares. Plc has ring fenced OM zim assets. Meaning they’ve ZERO consequences on the financial results of plc. They’ve been “written off”. Most multinationals have adopted the same stance with Zim assets. They’re not bothered!
8/
The fungibility of OM shares meant the local register where a high demand was, could continuing get shares from JSE or LSE. Since , I reiterate the OM Zim had Zero to do with PLC shares & performance.

The price of shares only reflects its supply & demand.
9/
I have taken my time to show the ends of PROPAGANDA. It has nothing to do with actual reality. At that convenient time Zanu PF wanted to blame someone for its economic mismanagement. It strategically chose OM & Econet because of their size & influence in the market place
10/
The disappointing thing is how OM & Ecocash reacted. They played into the hands of the propagandists.

ZSE delisted PPC, OM, Seedco. And Ecocash trading limits were greatly curtailed. The business body politik was shaken & afraid.

Pensioners bore the brunt.
11/
For OM plc,Zim is too small to be bothered.

Econet, Strive is now a billionaire & can’t be bothered about zim. Even after Ecocash was banned & his Zim asset wilting down to US$150m from its US$1.5bn highs, he managed to raise US$300m from his interests outside Zim.
12/
At the material time when Strive stood boldly against GOZ, his interests were tied to Zim. He had skin in the game. His boldness, helped him - but broadly helped the market place. This era brought the entrepreneurial golden age & new listings. Even civic society benefitted.
13/
Zanu PF cannot be changed. In 1975, the genuine front line soldier grievances of Nhari & Badza group were turned into a massacre of 200 people according to Tendi(2017),Despite Chitepo’s inquery & recommendations. The same would happen to Vashandi, Gumbo & Co. & Gukurahundi!
14/
Zanu PF doesn’t react well to opposition & contestation of ideas. That’s it’s history. Which it has transposed into how it deals with the Economy & civic matters. OMIR, Ecocash is seen as a “rebellion” & attracts attendant rhetoric. It uses state power & force to annihilate.
15/
It targets the ring leaders to make an example. Willard Zireva at the height of 2007 price controls was arrested & harassed after spending days with state security proving OK compliance with price controls. He was arrested nonetheless. As were many other business people.
16/
Economics is the answer to the problem of scarcity. Many needs but limited resources. Information asymmetry is what defines commerce & trade. The more information the greater the trades. The less information the greater the distortions.
17/
Propaganda is Mis-Information. It’s meant to distract from what is actually happening. In corporate world it varies from an innocuous jingle to major sponsorship of national teams. Enron gift vouchers to its clients were the largest.
18/
Remember in 2016, RBZ introduced bond notes as an incentive scheme for exporters! Exporters didn’t need an incentive. It was depositors who wanted their cash. 🤷🏻‍♀️

This is the misinformation signaling. By then, the horse had already bolted.
19/
The arrest of the trio @daddyhope @advocatemahere @JobSikhala1 for allegedly sharing fake news which did not even originate from them & using a law struck down years ago is instructive. These are the most vocal voices on social media. It is them that speak boldly of GOZ ills
20/
GOZ’s ill’s are plenty. The least of which is the economy which has declined by a cumulative 20% since the coup. The worst performance of Zim economy since 1980. Corruption within GOZ means that it has lost the ideological war. It has no answer for the restive citizens.
21/
It got away with it with OM & Ecocash. Never mind the economic destruction. Econet alone contributed 2-3% of GDP. It hopes to silence dissent in any form.

A coup happened because Mugabe was mismanaging the economy.
22/
Arresting dissenting voices and not arresting poverty is callous. But it is a market signal of what Peter Drucker called Mis-Leaders.

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More from @baba_nyenyedzi

9 Jan
1/
This is a good piece in trying to uncover a dubious & scandalous transaction. But more could have been investigated and cross checked. Eg ZMDC mines only Jena is producing and it’s less than 50kgs a month & not 300kgs as the article alleges.
2/
Secondly it claims the issue of sanctions against Kuda Tagwireyi is perhaps the reason why this hocus pocus is happening. This is not true & I will explain later.
3/
Thirdly like many news items it too fails to verify information that is parroted by management & others. Eg the deal amounts & said capital raises of $1bn. This is all a ruse. Caledonia that produces 60k ounces of gold is valued at US$200m, has millions of ounces in reserves
Read 14 tweets
6 Jan
1/

Zimbabwe Economy 2021 Whither?

Economists identify threats & opportunities. They’re neither optimist nor pessimists. Their job doesn’t require them to be. Threats & opportunities often become clear when data, patterns & trends are presented.
2/
This is why in America every month the Job report is dissected & nibbled down to its bare elements. No analyst is derided nor politically attacked. In Zim, the political environment has meant many great Economists not participating fully. This is a tragedy & loss to Zim.
3/
2021 is a challenging year globally & in particular Zim. Zim economy will not grow this year but will enter year 3 of its economic depression.

While GOZ estimated the economy declined by 4% in 2019 & estimating 8% decline in 2020. World Bank have released 2019 actuals
Read 13 tweets
5 Jan
1/
Part 2

Zimbabwe Remittances

According to the World Bank/IMF data remittances into Zim averaged US$1.8bn annually over the last decade. This translates to between 10-14% of GDP.

Remittances over the decade were equivalent (on average)to 60% of GOZ tax revenues (US$3bn).
2/
Over the same period FDI was US$400m p.a

Humanitarian aid was US$500m p.a

Total bank deposits during Dollarisation were US$4bn. Private sector credit was US$3.8bn.

The absolute annual remittances of US$1.8bn & as a % of GDP show how pivotal & influential a variable it is.
3/
The US$1.8bn is unencumbered when it enters Zim. By unencumbered, it means free money without any requisite strings attached to it. For example Zim exports US$5bn, of which 80% is cost& expenses. 20% profit is unencumbered.
Read 18 tweets
2 Jan
1/
Zimbabwe Economy remittances paradox

The paradox can be stated as thus; The single most influential variable in the Zim economy is diaspora remittances, yet it’s the least researched, misunderstood & almost forgotten sub-sector.
2/
While GOZ in its incompetence can be easily forgiven, one wonders how the many multilateral organizations like WB, IMF ADB UNDP, DFID, USAID including NGO’s have played a part in the almost nonexistent , inconsistent and generally forgotten sub-sector
3/
Certainly from an Economics perspective, nothing requires more study and understanding than remittances. After 20 years of a growing diaspora, surely this is an area that demands careful policy direction since it has both opportunities & threats to an economy.
Read 20 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/ 2017 vs 2020 Economics

Whatever the many reasons for the coup. The aftermath has been an economic disaster. This is instructive, since Mugabe was a monumental failure in Economics.

I wish to stick to economic facts &figures. I restrict myself exclusively to GOZ & RBZ stats
2/
To be fair to Mnangagwa, as President he is fed a lot of misinformation & politically convenient gibberish by those closest to him & security clusters bent on personal enrichment than national well being.

I say this, because some of the issues are too simple to understand.
3/
Mnangagwa can never commit harakiri ( Japanese suicide by cutting one’s belly) if facts & figures were honestly presented to him. Yet we saw Mugabe commit harakiri. He died a sad death while his lieutenants are now in power. Where the lieutenants honest to Mugabe...
Read 29 tweets
14 Dec 20
1/ The state of the Zim Economy. Looking ahead.

In August 2017, supermarkets were breaming with product,albeit an ominous cloud hung over the state. The black market for forex reached 40% premium from 1:1 gedye.

Inflation was only 4.83%. But even the Herald had no good news
2/ Fast forward to Dec 2020, two years of negative growth makes Zim an economic depression. Technically Zim is in an ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. Coupled with high inflation, it’s the worst kind. STAGFLATION.

Yet, pundits & GOZ maintain a happy festive is to be had.
3/ I have noticed the new regime does not take kindly to debate. Let alone robust debate. This is seen by how much gusto in spin is spent by GOZ in ridiculous propositions such as Budget surplus & now $1bn in FX reserves.

There is a dangerous flirtation with the futile
Read 24 tweets

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