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20 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Thanks to everyone that helped (we're still in the dark for most of employment in India, which is informal). Speaking of which, one of the distressing news out of India is its trade policy. Raised import duties in 2020 & more to come! What about exports?

reuters.com/article/india-…
India has the lowest exports as a share of GDP in Asia (exports in nominal value is not that much higher than Vietnam a country that is 1/10th its size) & meanwhile it raised imports for so many items + adding more soon in the budget according to Reuters!

reuters.com/article/india-…
Rumors that India would lower personal income tax but that only impacts formal employment (most labor market is informal). By raising import duties, it is raising taxes indirect & that is a very regressive form of taxation as it taxes the poor more.

indiatoday.in/business/story…
But of course because it is easier to collect GST, import duties etc, many emerging markets tend to collect more from indirect taxation vs direct (income tax, whether corporate or personal). But this form of taxation is regressive as it taxes consumption & hurts the poor more.

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Trinh Profile picture
21 Jan
Well done @lienh : The story of Vietnam can be a story of many EM (it's not just about Covid-19), but that once you have walked down the wrong path, it's never too late to make a U-turn.

Knew Lien when Vietnam was the worst story in EM circa 2011-2012 & its choices led it here.
Vietnam is behind its own schedule: Was supposed to be an industrialized nation by 2020 but then mismanagement of liquidity/banking system/corruption wasted about a decade of development as it took 1 step forward several steps backward. But the key was that it learned its lessons
If u want to harvest, plant a tree 10 years ago. If u want to harvest in 10 years, plant now. Meaning, people, company, and countries don't become who they are overnight - takes the will to change & the consistent & persistent actions to get there, esp when u start at the bottom.
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
21 Jan
Good morning! We have a new president 🇺🇸, some are sad, some are happy but the good news is that no matter who you have, they can't stick around for too long in the White House.

Markets rallied over night & so far Asian data positive w/ Korea exports (1st to report for Jan) UP! Image
Exports rose 10.6%YoY while imports less impressive at 1.5% (domestic demand is a huge problem in South Korea, especially consumption). And it's not a base effect as the average day is good too!

Cars up +16%, oil down -46%
Shipment to China & US +19% & EU +16% but Japan -1.1% 🇰🇷
The fact that the reflation trade is priced in now but not likely to happen until H2 2021, economic data shows that demand for tech/digital related products are bolstering economies best positioned to gain.

You know who rocks Asia tech? South Korea 💥🇰🇷🤗💃🏻
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
19 Jan
HSI surpassed the KOSPI to be best of Asia today (KOSPI was best of the world until the bubble got deflated by officials ending short selling in March). 💥

For most of Asia, January has been great. Look at Indonesia!!! Not bad for January!
Good morning! Today is 19 January 2021 & this is where we are for global equities:

Best: Asia! Specifically HSI 🇭🇰 (fueled by mainland buyers)! 💥💥💥🤗😍 Second best, Vietnam (supported by everyone, including retail 🇻🇳!3rd best, Taiwan!

Vietnam grew 2.9% in 2020! Best in Asia!
Losers in USD: Argentina 😬🇦🇷, Korean tech (KOSDAQ) & Malaysia 🇲🇾 & US tech.

So there you go: THE GREAT ROTATION Asia macro style🤗.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
18 Jan
Good morning: Some good news from Singapore regarding trade in December (China had that last week). Today is China data dump (comes out in 17 mins) and GDP (lagging indicator) should bounce & eyes are on retail sales for December as well as FAI.
Consensus expectations of China retail sales in December is 5.5% & we know the US underwhelmed w/ 2.9% (direction is downward as stimulus fades & suppression measures intensify as well as worse job condition). People are waiting on what Biden et al will do, esp US 10yr & stocks!
China retail sales in December rose less than expected by 4.6%YoY, expectations 5.5% 😬
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
15 Jan
Good morning! Another sunny & cool day in Hong Kong 🌞to make the end of the 1st 2 weeks of January.

Shall we look at where we stand? Let's looksie! Here is global equity return in USD. Guess who is best?

Russia, Kospi (Korea), Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, & Thailand. So Asia!
Remember that this is the GREAT ROTATION TRADE (oil, commodity & real economy, meaning EM up) & so the losers so far are Kosdaq (Korea tech) & Nasdaq (US tech) as well as Argentina.

The question then is, is this warranted given the raging pandemic outside!
Let's look at Asia (skipping US, EU PMIs & we'll talk later), which has done BEST in asset price movement so far in 2021, real economic activity to see if this euphoric 2-week start is matched by data.

Manufacturing PMI for Asia shows improvement (purple line > grey) esp for ID.
Read 13 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
14 Jan
🤣 So Twitter CEO admits he has too much power, as in internet companies in general, as in 1 person, him, having too much power over the public, billions of people, & his answer is to NOT CURB HIS POWER but BITCOIN🤗👈🏻.

He must think we're all stupid, maybe we are. Maybe...
Do u know how u can take back power from internet companies/social media companies other than lobbying for congress rep etc via regulations? Spend less time on it. I use my mobile only as a landline, no apps & no Twitter other than during work. No FB & Insta. Screen time <1hr/day
On top of spending less time staring at ur mobile vs being present & use the internet & social media for the positives they bring vs the negatives (caring for randos' approval), u must take back control & make time for real life & other activities. Boundaries are key to happiness
Read 6 tweets

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