Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/10 - USA. Jan 20 to Jan 26-
The #COVID19 situation will be getting better in most states, although most of them still remaining at high levels of activity, and very high levels of mortality.
9 states detailed in:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/10 - Massachusetts will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at high levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/10 - Vermont is still increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), at high levels, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/10 - New York seems to have taken over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.97), remaining at high levels, with still increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/10 - Pennsylvania will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), at high levels of activity, still plateauing at alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/10 - Florida will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at high levels, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

7/10 - Texas will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.98), at high levels, with alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

8/10 - South Dakota will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels of activity, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days

9/10 - California will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86) at high levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

10/10 - Washington: is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/10 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

12/10 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0