Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Jan 21 to Jan 27-
Daily #COVID19 epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.68), at medium levels of activity, still increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
School closed.

3/21. Ireland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.78), at high levels of activity, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
Schools closed.

4/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.79), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1350376929145331712?s=20

(Forecast for 7 cantons in the embedded thread.)
Schools openned.

5/21. The UK is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels of activity, still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
3rd Lockdown due to increase in transmission with the variant B.1.1.7.
Schools closed.

6/21. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.89), at medium levels of activity, plateauing in mortality at very high levels , for 7 more days.
Schools openned.

7/21. Germany is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at medium level of activity, while still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
Schools closed.

8/21. France is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at high levels, while increasing in mortality, at high levels, for 7 more days.
Schools openned.

9/21 - Belgium is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic acivity (R-eff=1.06), from medium to high (by early next week) levels, while decreasing in mortality still at high levels, for 7 more days.
Schools openned.

10/21. Spain is experiencing the most worrying rise in Europe with its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), at high levels, increasing in mortality from high to very high (early next week) levels, for 7 more days.
Schools openned.

11/21. Tunisia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

12/21. Zambia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), out of its safety zone, with medium levels of mortality.

13/21. South Africa is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.88), from high to medium levels of activity, plateauing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to variant 501Y.V2 suspected to cause increase in transmission.

14/21. Israel seems succeeding taking over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), at high levels, still increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

15/21. Russia will plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.97), at medium levels, increasing again in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

16/21. Japan is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), just above its safety zone, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Canada is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.92), at medium levels, plateauing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1351561626483372039?s=20

(Forecast for 4 provinces in the embedded thread.)

19/21. The US is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.91), at high levels, decreasing in mortality, at very high levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1351828177333661698?s=20

(New forecast for 7 states in the embedded thread.)

20/21. Brazil is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at high levels, increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

21/21. Uruguay is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), at high levels, increasing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.

23/21.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti.

24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0