Horrible latest numbers just released on UK COVID deaths - 1,820 newly reported today... by date of death that’s 5 confirmed consecutive days above 1000 deaths 10-14 Jan, 10 consecutive days at around 1000 a day 7-16th January
sustained “by date” pattern of UK COVID deaths in early January 2021 (7 day avg peak 1039 from 9-15th Jan) now unequivocally worse than in the previous April 2020 peak (7 day peak avg 974, 7-13th April)...(remember this is not excess death measure more comparable internationally)
So 1,290 newly reported Covid deaths, or 4,720 in past three days.
By date of death there’s now officially 10 consecutive days of UK Covid deaths at 1000 or higher every day from January 9th to January 18th - significantly above April wave 1 peak
PM tells press conference “evidence that the new variant may be associated with a higher degree of mortality” as well as spreading more quickly... which might begin to explain the higher and more sustained peak in deaths in this second wave...
Vallance says hospital data doesn’t show a difference in mortality between new variant, but there is “increased risk” of mortality among the wider positive testing population gives example of positive testing males in their 60s seeing 1% mortality, new variant 1.3-1.4%
Some are saying - this is only 3 or 4 in 1000 deaths more... but obviously as a proportion of the relevant population, this, if correct, would mean thousands more deaths than in first wave...
stats above do show Jan saw 10 consecutive days 1000+ deaths - notably worse than April
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Much needed good news from colleague @BBCSimonJack iv with Nissan COO Gupta... tariff free deal means they commit to long term future for Sunderland - & will move battery production for one Leaf model that doesn’t meet electric car rules of origin threshold, to UK, so it does
Vital last gasp negotiation between PM and VDL on this very issue at the last moment before deal was struck - up until then was genuine risk of some tariffs even in a deal - industry now needs significant backing on battery capacity for future, esp given combustion engine bans...
Some quite interesting comments to simon though on essentially anticipation of Nissan winning domestic market share at expense of EU imports... Raises wider questions about whether Govt chooses to lean into some import substitution strategies given extra non tariff barriers...
interesting - minutes from EU health security committee, still attended by the UK, from time new variant exploded - UK told EU Early Warning and Response System about it on 14th December. A week later, a day after tier 4 extension UK invited to explain all here...:
In return ... 20 mainly EU nations respond at the Committee detailing varying degrees of travel ban imposed on UK at that time...
Eg above Ireland said that the restrictions should be strengthened and “should be uniform around the EU”...
European Commission “DG Move” immediately raised issue of moving PCR testing away from borders to avoid “severe disruptions” and keep trade moving...
NEW:
Government/ industry sources confirm US-UK “mini deal” negotiations, revealed by US Trade Rep Lighthizer to BBC last month, failed to progress last week, after concerns about Airbus backing. Means Scottish whisky/cashmere tariffs continue...will be picked up with Biden admin
UK Govt source: “Ultimately we came close to resolving an intractable 16 year dispute[airbus-boeing], but didn’t quite get there. Any deal must be balanced and work for the whole UK and all of UK industry... understand pain of affected industry”... (ie whisky etc)
Net result is that Scotch whisky/ cashmere tariffs remain in place at least for a couple of months while new Biden Trade Rep Tai is confirmed, but then it’s a matter for their policy.
Lowering UK bourbon tariffs in separate steel dispute also in the mix here
Extraordinary Scottish fisherman’s Federation letter - body most often quoted by ministers/ best access to Govt/ backers of Brexit approach now saying Govt has left it in “worst of both worlds...many in seafood supply chain fear they will not survive..” sff.co.uk/letter-to-prim…
SFF letter to PM: “You and your Government have spun a line about a 25% uplift in quota for the UK, but you know this is not true, and your deal does not deliver that...”
This was organisation that coined phrase “sea of opportunity” to describe post Brexit fishing opps, then enthusiastically taken up by Government ...
now telling PM claims on quota uplift “not true” and means “failure” to deliver promises, anger and now “chaos” for exporters
Mixed loads fish exports (groupage) now further delayed.
exporting now a process requiring 26 key steps, rather than 1 page form...teething issue perhaps for eg single loads salmon, but this level of non tariff barrier permanent structural issue for others bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla…
The structural issue is this - the UK chose GB to be a third country, with less agrifood alignment than eg NZ, and the EU’s strict import procedures for third countries are designed for niche exotic stuff mainly, not the mass import of perishable goods...
The negotiation clearly prioritised freedom [from the EU] over freeflow [of goods to it]..but Govt downplays latter, eg PM stating “there will be no non tariff barriers” and below on a visit to fishing communities ahead of GE19 “we don’t have unnecessary form filling”...