Today we lost 1820 of our citizens. Many of these deaths could have been prevented. I plead with our Secretary of State @MattHancock and @CMO_England to make changes to our community protective shield as follows: (1)
Face the data with humility. Latest data show only 32% of in-person test results were received within 24 hours...Way too slow. For all routes combined, 18.3% of tests from all test sites were received within 24 hours of a test. (2)
Since Test and Trace launched, 97.8% of all contacts managed by local health protection teams have been successfully reached. Performance of call centres is much worse. The % reached within 24h of the case that reported them reaching the contact tracing system fell to 67.7%. (3)
We should expect many more contacts than have been identified by call centres. And those contacted by call centre or online are simply asked to self-isolate. No follow-up. No link with primary care. No offer of local help. (4)
The MOST important statistic is not measured: compliance with 'self-isolation'. Surveys conducted have shown only 18.5% comply. And many of the poorest groups won't go for a test because they fear being asked to self-isolate. Why? (5)
They fear isolation because up to 80% of people fail to receive the £500 promised to support their family during isolation for 14 days. A payment to cover 14 days on a living wage would cost £980. We are asking families to go hungry to stop spreading infection. (6)
Every country that successfully closed this pandemic down supported their people with living wages, bills paid, local monitoring of symptoms and isolation, and local support with shopping and food. They know that the details of local public health support matter. (7)
It is not too late to do this. We shall have circulation of this virus for many more months. Almost two thirds of people in ICUs are under 65. So please change the test, trace, isolate system. Here are three things you can do now: (8)
A. We must have local testing system which gets 90% of the results back within 24 hours. Surely we can do better...mobile centres in many other nations get the results back within 6 hours. (9)
B. We should close call centre contracts and move resources to local public health and primary care. Immediately. To match Chinese coverage we need 45,000 pandemic community workers to assist with contact tracing, and to monitor and support isolation. (10)
We had 750,000 volunteers, including retired Doctors, nurses and administrators. They could do a great job as volunteers or on minimum wage. They are willing to help. Use them. (11)
C. Finally we must promise £750 to people asked to isolate, with a further £230 if they comply with isolation. They should receive the payment within 2-3 days of being asked to isolate. Local teams can monitor compliance + details of people asked to isolate, to avoid fraud. (12)
We can lock down this virus and prevent the carnage of death we have seen today. We may need a pandemic reserve team of community workers trained for future pandemics. Countries who suppressed did not need national lockdowns. We can do the same. (13)
We face a double dip recession. China is growing at 6.5% higher than before the pandemic. Creating a protective community shield will save lives, protect the NHS and get people back to work. Please, please do it. (14) @MattHancock @CMO_England @BorisJohnson

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More from @globalhlthtwit

5 Jan
SAGE Minutes Dec 22: "It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency + adherence in line with the measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) wd be sufficient to maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. R would be lower with schools closed"
SAGE Minutes Dec 22 "It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with both primary and secondary schools closed, would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the presence of the new variant." google.com/search?client=…
SAGE Minutes Dec 22 "ACTION: PHE to share information on new variant and South Africa variant with policymakers and ministers for consideration of action".
Read 4 tweets
4 Jan
The PM says all frontline workers, people aged 70+ and people with serious underlying conditions will be vaccinated by mid-February. That’s 13 million, so 2 million per week. Potentially doable if GPs are supported with staff, volunteers funding and supplies. (1)
We must see a generous allowance funded by Treasury for isolation when infected or a contact. Without it, transmission will remain high increasing the risk of vaccine resistance. If not, could be the costliest mistake of the whole pandemic. (2)
Border screening must be made much tighter. Especially to identify new aggressive strains from other countries. (3)
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
Modellers believe that spreading out our limited supply of vaccine as single doses for 3 months will save up to 6000 lives. One concern though is whether single doses might lead to 'vaccine resistance' through virus mutation. (1)
If we assume that over the next 12 weeks 12-20 million people get one dose of a vaccine and are told or believe it gives 90% protection what % will actually go for a second jab? We might assume second dose coverage is at best 70%. (2)
That means between 4 and 6.7 million people might have fading protection. Will the risk of creating a vaccine resistant mutant in this group of people, which could spread rapidly to 7 billion people around the world, outweigh the benefits of 6000 deaths prevented. (3)
Read 14 tweets
28 Dec 20
We need more information on the immunisation plan. In the two weeks from Dec 8-20 we immunised 616,000 people, say 52,000 per day. With the new Covid variant we might assume up to 70% coverage to achieve herd immunity (1).
70% of 68 million people = 48 million people who need 2 doses one month apart. That is 96 million doses.
If we just vaccinate the over 65s (12m), front line workers (2m) and people with underlying conditions (8m) we shall need 22 million x 2 = 44 million doses. (2)
At current rates it will take 846 days to fully vaccinate 22 million people + 1846 days to achieve herd immunity. WAY TOO LONG! So how many jabs per day to vaccinate high risk 22 million people in say 3 months (13 weeks)? Answer: 484,000 doses per day, working 7 days per week.(3)
Read 7 tweets
6 Nov 20
Scientific models vary according to the assumptions made. Compare here the projections for Covid19 deaths under four different epidemiological models (Imperial, LSHTM, Warwick, and Public Health England/Cambridge) and the dynamic causal model of Professor Karl Friston. (1)
Here are the four epidemiology scenario models which all show much higher daily death rates than the 'first wave' (dotted line). These informed government policy. (2) Image
This slide shown to COBR shows the steady rise in death rates up to the first wave peak in about one month's time. (3) Image
Read 9 tweets
5 Nov 20
From the Office of Statistics regulation: In the context of the pandemic there are three things which governments should consistently do to support transparency: (1)
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-state…
1. where data are used publicly, the sources of these data or the data themselves should be published alongside any press briefing and associated slides to allow people to understand their strengths and limitations (2)
2. where models are referred to publicly, particularly to inform significant policy decisions, the model outputs, methodologies and key assumptions should be published at the same time (3)
Read 5 tweets

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