Thread by @DaveKeating

Before tonight's #EUCO vaccine summit, here's an explainer of the EU vaccine roll-out situation, to clear up misunderstandings.

1st point is that for almost all EU countries, this isn't a supply problem. As seen in this @jfkirkegaard chart, national performance is varying widely

The chart shows best performers are using their supply. But most countries aren't even using half of what they've been supplied. Only Denmark is having a supply problem.

As of Tuesday EU countries have received 12.3m Pfizer doses and 650k Moderna doses, but given only 5m shots.

Some national politicians (and media) want to pin the blame for national distribution failings on Brussels - an old European tradition.

But when it comes to the Commission's role here, there is no supply problem - yet. We'll see if one comes later.

3 different things must done before we get a shot in the arm. Each has different entities responsible.

💶Procurement (buying vaccines): The Commission

👩‍🔬Approval (ensuring vaccines safe): EU Medicines Agency

💉Distribution (transporting, storing, administering): National Govs

On #procurement, the Commission has pre-ordered 2.3 billion doses over a portfolio of 6 vaccines. 760m of those are for already-approved vaccines (1.2 billion after AZ approval next week). Way more than needed to vaccinate everyone.
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

On #approval, EMA is an independent regulatory agency that should not be subject to any political interference.

Early on, the 27 national EU medical authorities decided not to do emergency use authorisations because of myriad concerns including liability.
thebulletin.org/2020/11/is-eme…

The UK & US decided to do emergency use authorisations in early December, meaning the pharma companies will not be liable if something goes wrong with the vaccines there - the government will.

The EMA waited to do a conditional approval, which means pharma companies liable in EU

The decision to do a conditional approval, which takes more time, has been criticised. But these are decisions for scientists, not EU leaders

As VP @MargSchinas noted: "This is the way we do things in EU. Decisions of this kind are in hands of independent regulatory authorities"

On #distribution, that's a process that started in EU on 27 December after EMA Pfizer approval.

In some countries like Denmark Italy & Spain, it's gone relatively well. In others, like Belgium France & Netherlands, it's been a disaster. National factors have made the difference.

The later start means that European countries are behind countries which started earlier because they used emergency authorisation - but that's rather obvious.

It's no mystery why UK has given twice as many doses per 100 people as Denmark. It's been vaccinating twice as long.

What's much more interesting is to compare the actual vaccine roll-out campaigns, based on number of days in.

After 20 days of vaccinating, Denmark had given doses to 2.88 people per 100.

Italy: 1.88
Spain: 1.64
UK: 1.45
Germany: 1.34
US: 0.64
France: 0.63

So at tonight's #EUCO video summit, EU PMs & presidents have a lot to learn from each other about their roll-out experiences.

If France had been vaccinating at same pace as Denmark, they'd have given 1.4 million additional shots by now, according to this chart from @jfkirkegaard

Lots to discuss tonight. EU leaders also alarmed by new reports casting doubt on effectiveness of Israel & UK's 1-dose strategy; in case anyone in Europe was considering emulating that.

They need to figure out what's going wrong, and right, on the ground. news.sky.com/story/covid-19…

Don't expect any concrete actions on vaccination to be announced at tonight's #EUCO. Vaccine campaigns are a national competence, this is just about sharing best practices.

The leaders may ask Commission to put pressure on pharma companies to ensure enough delivery in Q1 & Q2.

To recap:

💉 After 3 weeks of vaccinating the performance of EU countries varies wildly.
❄️ Problems are mostly logistical rather than to do with supply
🇪🇺 Vaccine *distribution* is entirely a national competence, the EU can only issue guidance and set targets (70% by summer)