Thread by @DPogrebinsky

I think the largest oppty into earnings is $twtr on 2/9:
1) everyone and their mother is neg on it meaning sentiment and positioning is shit poor and expectations low (see $nflx reaction)
2) Everyone expects users to drop but no one understands that Twitter uses different metrics

3) Twitter uses monetizable daily active users versus every other platform using monthly active users or daily active users. What if Trump and many of the conspiracists who were removed never qualified as monetizable daily active user?

4) when Twitter changed their metrics they had 320 million monthly active users that turned into 112 million monetizable daily active users. Now they have 188 million monetizable daily active users which is likely comparable to 500 to 600M monthly active users of other platforms

5) people completely missing that $twtr has brand new rev stream in the last quarter for small business advertising & their MAP product relaunching. This makes up 90% of Facebook’s revenues while is very little at Twitter which is the opportunity & why this quarter could shock

6) analyst day for first time in years on 2/25. Would they schedule one if there wasn’t positive things to say? I think it’s used to discuss the small business & MAP opportunity which will get people excited about stock

7) people forget $twtr is reopening story w/ live events (Olympics, movie theaters, etc). expect massive outperformance in back half of yr
8) Twitter went public 8 yrs ago at $63 & Has NEVER approached those levels since meanwhile revenue today is 10X higher & Company profitable

9) Twitter trades less than half multiple of $pins & $snap so cheap comparatively when taking into account new rev oppty’s
10) Trump & conspiracists gone improves health of platform & could lead to rise not fall in people willing to advertise on twitter which no one‘s considering

11) could be wrong but I think Twitter is a unique opportunity in this market that has not gone up and actually is the worst performing stock in the S&P 500 over the last year. Has pulled back 20% since Trump was banned, low RSI, sentiment & expectations low, will go higher imo

12) If $twtr heads and breaks above $63 previous top then imagine an 8 yr top being broken and what run that could cause on thr stock. Could double from there quick. As they say the longer the base the longer in space and ive never seen an 8 yr base like this

13) Large activist investor presence with Silverlake and Elliot management providing Twitter with the priority for monetization and companies buying back stock while profitable

14) Also people dont understand Trump ban came AFTER this q ended meaning this q was unaffected & could have large user growth. Obviously analysts will ask $twtr about users this q but if they dont guide & make general comments then analysts will have to go off this q results