Overall thoughts on $amzn: 1) while aws growth missed little this q the backlog up to 50B (up 68%) implies acceleration 2) e-commerce internationally beat big & could be getting more entrenched there 3) $amzn on call said spent 48B in open last yr much of it on adding capacity
4) 2020 COVID costs were $11B, while these will continue as vaccine rolls out it will be less. Only guided to 2B this q 5) with COVID and investment costs of almost 60B last yr 2021 should be a much lower investment yr meaning EPS is about to beat big this yr and sky rocket imo
6) bezos is not stepping down or leaving as many clickbait articles would have u believe. He’s transitioning to exec chairman & as largest shareholder will still be heavily involved/in charge of new products which is where I’d want him to be, also this is happening in q3 not now
7) Aws chief becoming ceo is positive, in the age of digital acceleration the guy in charge of cloud this is exactly who u want to be in charge of $amzn going forward. He’s also been there almost as long as Bezos at 25 years so not a newbie and again Bezos still around
8) the blockbuster of the report was advertising revenues which increased 66% which was an acceleration from 50% last q which was an acceleration from 40% the quarter before. This will be as big as aws in two to three years and could overtake it ultimately with similar margins
9) summary: e-commerce still has plenty room to grow, aws will reaccelerate, advertising firing on all cylinders as a giant high margin category, anyone selling on Bezos news is making a mistake. $amzn has been basing longer than any other large cap and ready to power to 4K imo
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Been doing a lot of thinking & honestly think $rkt could potentially be lining up for a mini $gme type moment:
1) $rkt tried to go public at 150M shares @ $20-22 however due to weak demand cut back to 100M shares @ $18. This also means pre lockup the float was just 100M or $2B
2) ive been monitoring short interest and ever since last q its gone up 5% every two weeks like clockwork with the latest info now showing 37% of shares held short. This is off the 100M ipo float not the total.
3) last q they announced a $1B buyback...now let that sink in, less than 3 months after going ipo they are buying back $1B out of the $2B total of shares they issued to go public at 18, when has anyone ever seen that happen ever?!
1) revenue growth expected to come in at 61% (last q was 58% so a slight acceleration)
2) next q guidance expected for 56% rev growth, little bit of an easy compare as covid started at the back of the q. Last yr grew 35% in q1
3) this yr rev expected to be 1.63B vs 1.143B last yr or 43% growth.
4) Last yr rev was 1.143B vs 755M in 2018 or 51% growth
5) next yr rev expected at 2.32B or 42% growth. Following yr 3.18B for 37% growth
6) stock trades at 21x next yr revs & 15x following yr revs
7) $pins has grown users tremendously this yr at 37% to 442M with 98M in US and 343M intl, however they have yet to monetize much of their intl users which is why arpu is so low
8) arpu:
Global: 1.03
Intl: .21
US: 3.85
These figures are very low (lot of room for improvement)
I think the largest oppty into earnings is $twtr on 2/9: 1) everyone and their mother is neg on it meaning sentiment and positioning is shit poor and expectations low (see $nflx reaction) 2) Everyone expects users to drop but no one understands that Twitter uses different metrics
3) Twitter uses monetizable daily active users versus every other platform using monthly active users or daily active users. What if Trump and many of the conspiracists who were removed never qualified as monetizable daily active user?
4) when Twitter changed their metrics they had 320 million monthly active users that turned into 112 million monetizable daily active users. Now they have 188 million monetizable daily active users which is likely comparable to 500 to 600M monthly active users of other platforms
Want to be tra soarent since ive been so vocal on $trit that last night i reached out again given some discrepancies in financial statements related to account receivables being so high and their platform costs not being in r&d but in investing cash flows (higher ebitda shown)
While the comoany has not gotten back to me on the details of my additional questions they did say that they dont plan to have any formal quarter results for the q they just provided estimates for... they said their press release saying 17M rev plus 10M net income is all we get
Said their auditor kpmg is “budy” till january and would take thrm 30 days to do and by Feb it will be old news and they think spending 50k on that doesnt make sense. The next formal financial results they will provide will be for year end in feb and they said they have 120 days
Just spent an hour on the phone with $trit IR: 1) company has 56 employees of which 6 are engineers related to the platform who are managed by Ashish. The key is in addition they outsource to India additional 50-80 tech contractors at any given time who they used to launch Kratos
2) srinivas is a controlling investor in Rhodium but company has full time CEO and CFO and he doesnt control and is not privy to the day to day operations of the company. $trit started through him seeing a need for a better way to trade more effectively through Rhodium experience
They of course used Rhodium & its relationships with parties it does business with as the first customers of their platform which youd expect. In June 2019 related party rev was 100%, down to 26.5% by Feb 2020 & last q down to under 10% as they onboard more 3rd parties.
Some $trit thoughts: 1) def some red flags here however at this valuation vs the 65% rev growth rate and solid profitability i think its already more than reflected in the price of the stock here. Without these red flags i dont see why this stock wouldnt be 2-3x this price now
2) Lot of ppl looking at the connection between the founder of $trit and the company that has the financial issues ehich he also controls however did anyone listen to the update call? Company explained many customers in space affected by covid & asking for longer payment terms
3) Everyone understands & grants these terms (including lenders) except this one time for this customer the lender associated with the transaction didnt agree which is y rhodium has the issue. Company said the transaction in question was NOT even done through $trit’s platform!