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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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21 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I think people are thinking too hard about this. Just look at the polls. Most of the starting reforms proposed by Biden are pretty darn popular news.gallup.com/opinion/pollin…
Getting rid of the filibuster is also pretty popular (depending on how you frame the question)
So if voters want, for ex, a public option, and they’re okay with getting rid of the filibuster to do it, I’m not so sure the conventional wisdom about Biden/Democrats incurring huge costs by “forcing” policies through the branches of gov is right
The historical examples might not be of much use, in other words.

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
21 Jan
Democrats would need to be FDR-levels of popular and productive to avoid mid-term losses the first go-around. I don’t know about y’all, but while I think Biden is talented, I’m doubtful he can lead the party to THAT strong a record. Operating assumption is GOP Congress in 2022.
Not true at all — if you go back and read what I wrote, or talk to my colleagues, you’ll know I was bullish on Biden pretty much the entire primary

Final thought: You can save this tweet for later, but I really doubt this changes the electoral environment at all. For one thing, the GOP’s favorability ratings haven’t suffered at all from the attack on the Capitol. If anything it has helped them.

Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
19 Jan
One of the more depressing things about covid, from a political-psychological & sociological point of view, is just how little many Americans’ support for public health (the bureaucracy, professionals, and safety measures) has risen over the course of 400k deaths.
Covid has tested our commitment to each other in a bleak, dispiriting way. After a year of deaths, partisanship & conspiratorial thinking are still the leading predictors of whether people will even wear masks. Makes you wonder what could really prepare us for the next pandemic.
If a virus that kills over half a million Americans by the end of its pandemic stage isn’t enough to significantly shore up bipartisan funding for public health, expand access to healthcare, and significantly raise opinion for a robust public response, what is?
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
12 Jan
The last week has proved that almost nothing can stop the GOP’s politicization of their illiberalism—now ranking near Poland and Turkey’s right-wing parties for their endorsement of authoritarianism. They have radicalized their voters against democracy. Dark days for the republic
We might have three major (endogenous) ideological dimensions in America now: left-right economic, open-closed social attitudes, and liberalism-authoritarianism in support for democracy. That last divide is untenable. It’s incompatible with our government.
If the GOP can basically just campaign against pro-democracy, anti-corruption speech with traditional culture-war arguments (against censorship &c), it’s really hard to see the path forward. No electoral incentive for leadership, no accountability. Are we too far gone?
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
7 Jan
I don't see Congress is at all addressing what happened today. Trumpism, Republican power ideology, and our electoral institutions brought us to this point, and there doesn't seem to be any reckoning with that (I'm mainly talking about from the GOP side).
Sure, Romney, Graham, and some others have objected to the anti-certification nefariousness, but that's not going to stop what's really threatening American democracy right now.
Saying "enough is enough" in no way repairs years of perpetuating conspiracy theories about fraud and otherwise destabilizing democracy. Republican lawmakers need to reckon with what they've created (violent, anti-democratic mobs) or it's all for naught.

Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
6 Jan
It's early in GA, but the NYT needles are pretty good. Plus: AP Votecast has Trump's approval in GA down since Nov; polls were good in the general; and the $2k checks and Trump call could be big factors. I'm happy if I'm a Dem, but Atlanta results could tip the scales.
It is worth noting that the average shift since November in counties that are 100% reporting (per the NYT) is about two percentage points toward Democrats. I'm not expecting Ossoff/Warnock to win by _that_ much, but directionally this is often a good indicator.
I am only here for the runoff fam
Read 21 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
11 Dec 20
not an easy day to focus on book writing. is this how political scientists have felt for the last 4 years?
Not only is the statistical analysis that Paxton relies on incomprehensibly misspecified, but the author actually explains *why* it's wrong (later votes came from cities, competitive battleground metros are less latino) IN THE CONCLUSION OF HIS STATEMENTS

supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/2…
another reminder not to let economists near voting data
Read 4 tweets

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