"Aren't you worried about rural whites in the northwest getting galvanized by something soon and turning out for the GOP?"
"You assume they remember there's an election"
-a Georgia Dem in the know on Jan 1.
People really underestimate how tuned out of politics many areas are.
This is something I've tried to emphasize very often: the average Twitter user is far, far more tuned in to politics than most people are. Most of the nation doesn't even know who Jamal Khashoggi is, and that dominated Twitter for days.
Where am I going with this?
1) There are very few consequences for nuking the filibuster at the cost of governing, and the Democrats know this. I'd be surprised to see it stay. Checks matter, vote margins don't. 2) The same rural whites don't turn out in midterms for a reason.
If you want to talk about historical trends, one thing is pretty clear over recent elections: rural voters don't vote at nearly as high of a rate. It's tough to gauge who counts as an engaged voter, but a solid proxy is education.
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If a red wave is to hit, here's what it consists of:
(1) differential turnout in suburbs leading to the Democratic base staying home (2) large reversion with college+ whites (3) continued struggles with Hispanics.
I'm skeptical of all of these things happening at once...
(1) That's a dangerous assumption to make that the Democratic base will be super depressed, especially given what we've seen proposed recently and given the fact that a new stimulus is planned. (2) What from GA makes us think lots of reversion among college+ whites is coming?
"Democrats always hit 45% in South Carolina, but they never cross it because that's the threshold" ignores the fact that there's been a lot of variability in vote margins across counties...they just tend to cancel each other out! Here's the elasticity of the state from 2014-2020.
Something interesting, though, is that these changes appear to have stabilized a lot from 2016 onwards -- looking *only* at elections from 2016-20, we see that margins have begun to settle in. So a blue SC is some ways away. But Cunningham's district? That's perpetually close now
I think @kilometerbryman, @SenhorRaposa, and @JMilesColeman have talked about this in more detail with some of their maps and stats, but another classic case of this is Wisconsin. Close in 2004 (D+0.4), close in 2020 (D+0.6)...but with maps that look absolutely *nothing* alike.
Assuming a reversion to the GOP in the 2022 midterms just because Democrats hold a trifecta ignores
- increasing polarization and an increasingly inelastic electorate
- a favorable D Senate map
- a bad COVID recovery
You're as likely to see a 2002 midterm as you are a 2010 one.
It also ignores educational polarization, which has been the bread and butter of the change sustaining the Democratic Party's competitiveness in off-year cycles and elections. Suburbs are overrepresented in midterms, rurals in presidential years (of late).
What Nate Cohn taught us when our model was failing to capture the strength of Ossoff's early lead initially before the rebuild was that geographic correlation was a proxy of the shift in individual voting likelihood.
Even in small towns, voters with college degrees vote more.
Knowing some of the inside workings of both campaigns, IMO it was Ossoff. A lot of the coordination, structure, and planning was provided by Ossoff's campaign, especially in the general election. And I'm almost certain Warnock doesn't hold Perdue under 50% in November.
Absolutely none of this is to say Warnock was not a good candidate, so I'm not claiming that at all.
But how do we define candidate quality? Is it based on coordination, hires, and strategy? Or on some nebulous "I like this person better"? If the former, Ossoff pips Warnock.
There's no question Warnock turned out Black voters like nobody's business, and Ossoff needed that.
But Warnock's campaign was lagging badly in August and he was once in danger of missing the runoff entirely.
Meanwhile, Ossoff had the best statewide digital strategy around.
I’ve studied the early voting data in a lot of detail and talked to several people in the know on this, and in my opinion, Democrats ran a near-perfect campaign that could be studied for years to come.
Black turnout staying super high: ✅
Avoid any type of suburban slippage: ✅
Turn out and contact every single voter: ✅
Let the GOP destroy themselves with infighting: ✅
Build the best statewide digital operation in the nation: ✅
In particular, Jon Ossoff beating David Perdue is a feat that absolutely nobody should be diminishing. Defeating an incumbent who was once relatively popular by over a percentage point in a year of downballot disappointments is nothing short of remarkable.