THREAD: Last-Century thinking got humanity into a mess. It worked well though, just too well. Into the third decade of the new century and I am sad to see how little last century thinking is being named and challenged. 1/
OLD THINKING: Take that nature, use that nature. Same amount of land that we stated with, but going on four times the population and much soil erosion behind us. NEW THINKING: use it, put it back, regenerate it. 2/
OLD: Either you are good or bad. Promoted on almost every TV show. Reality is, we created a system and it grew and that system brings out the worst in us to an extent we have forgotten how to bring out the best in each other, almost. 3/
OLD: If you have money you should spend it on what you want. A few people had cars back in the 1920's. Now there are so many on the Earth that they alone can push the climate over the tipping point. NEW: Money should never give you the power and right to commit ecocide. 4/
OLD: the power in the economy is consumption. Using stuff up. Problem is, we are already using more stuff than our earth-society-earth can sustain. Successful ideas like that end badly when there is more human stuff on the earth than natural. 5/ theguardian.com/environment/20…
We need to pivot to the NEW idea: Use it - put it back. It's called the circular economy and it is only part of the solution because we need to put back the legacy of the material age to restore natural working like these guys 6/ ecosystemrestorationcamps.org
OLD IDEA: Our democracy will fix everything, clever, dedicated people are taking care of us. 40 years of scientists' warnings and no action shows it won't. NEW IDEA: We must rebel. Inaction by Politicians that will kill the young generation is treason. @BespokePanic 7/
OLD IDEA: Peace is the absence of war the rest you get after death. NEW IDEA: peace is who we really are, it is built in and we know it even if we cannot describe it. We don't need a high material life to feel peace but we do need the basics. investorsinpeace.com 8/
OLD IDEA: Look after yourself and if everyone does that, things will work out. Reality is that very few are happy with that arrangement. NEW IDEA: we are all one, and part of the same Earth and nature. Taking care is built into our DNA and we feel good when we do it. Indeed, 9/
Landscape pain is a real thing. We are hurt by the destruction we see. NEW IDEA: pour money into restoration rather than stupid bitcoins, shares and overpriced piles of bricks 10/10 commonland.com
THREAD: one more time on the need for citizens to understand the need for, then demand, then deliberate on, then manage - a total pivotal change. Next tweet..what is a pivot and why we need one 1/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
THREAD: Johan Rockström's Performance lecture at the Swedish National Theatre (in Swedish, English Subtitles) and what it tells activists and Scientists alike. Watch it now or read my review 1/n svtplay.se/video/29406900…
In the performance, Johan Rockström sits at the bottom of the bed of a young family and explains our climate predicament. In words, no graphs. The young mother listens and gets engaged in a dialogue with him. There is a lot to like about the performance ... 2/n
Dramatic to see two worlds collide - one who has been studying the workings of the planet for 20 years and the other who has been concentrating on her acting career and having a child. (The husband is too tired to listen "I've got a rehearsal in the morning let me sleep) ..3/n
TRÅD: Sorgligt det inte tas upp hur tobak är negativt för miljö och hälsa - även i snusform. Lyssna inte på Swedish Match VD som får uttala sig i DN utan kritiska följdfrågor. forts.... DN.SEdn.se/ekonomi/swedis…
Snus är ingen hälsoprodukt. Det är mindre farligt att snusa än att röka, men snusare har bland annat högre risk att dö om de drabbas av hjärtinfarkt och stroke, och nikotin ger styvare blodkärl, vilket ökar risken för hjärt-kärlsjukdomar. forts...
På sin hemsida skriver Swedish Match att de arbetar för att eliminera barnarbete i tobaksplantagerna. Att de är medlemmar i ECLT Foundation är greenwashing, enligt Tobacco Control Research Group vid Bath University som forskar på tobaksindustrin. Forts...
TAIL RISK THREAD: A tail risk is one that is small but devastating. When an 8 year- old asks about crossing the road to get to a bus stop you correctly point out that there is a 1% risk she will get run over. However you might want to suggest instead 1/x
A 3-min walk to the traffic lights and crossing. To frame tail risk you include probability distribution of the event (car colliding with girl), with an outcome function (girl likely dies if hit), and account for the cost of mitigation (3 minutes to walk to traffic light) 2/x
In the realm of climate change, climate scientists are the ones charged with estimating the event risk, while other disciplines (e.g. economics, engineering) must be brought to bear on estimating outcome, and the costs of mitigating the risk or adapting to it. 3/x
THREAD: Understanding pivot. Growing pressure from world population life-style will reach a point where it is damaging the capacity of Earth systems to an extent where life support will be challenged. It is simply a question of at what stage governments act. 1/X
Pivot is the same at each point 1-4. I use the STOP acronym. a) Stop, or halt, all increase of extraction/drawdown. b) Think, plan measures that will restore Earth system capacity and keep delivering basic services. c) Organise, re-work old regulations and agencies and then 2/x
Proceed to act. Notice that pivots are different depending on where measures are set in. It is MUCH harder to change when carrying capacity is challenged to an extent where people are dying. However, the pivot idea is a useful decision framework as you will see in 3/x
Thread: A pivot is a sudden change in direction to another direction. The diagram explains why we need to pivot now: the sum aggregate of business activities is extracting more from and putting more into natural systems than the systems can handle. The consequence? Contd...
Natural systems unable to support the number of human population and there will be a massive die-off. This phenomenon is well-known by biologists. Populations rise and crash all the time. Populations CAN exceed carrying capacity a short time - but a crash always results. contd
We have no choice now, having entered the danger zone, but to prepare for the crash. This requires us to voluntarily pivot. Declare the emergency for what it is and get on with it.