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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
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15 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Despite breathless climate reporting warning us of ever more damaging extreme weather

US relative flood damage has strongly declined from 1903-2019, from 0.5% of GDP to 0.05% today

Update of fig 10, sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
facebook.com/bjornlomborg/p…
This fits well with global weather-related damages not increasing (actually slightly decreasing)
Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions

Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction

Read my peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
13 Jan
Dear Greta,

Worth taking these 'predictions' with a bucket-full of salt

One of the lead authors, Paul Ehrlich, has been predicting the imminent end of mankind for 50+ years, here from CBS national news in 1970

(from PBS retroreport.org/video/the-popu…)
Yes, climate is a problem, but not the end of the world

UN estimates the cost of climate change in 2070s equivalent to losing 0.2-2% of income

In UN middle scenario: instead of each person being 3.63x as rich, we will 'only' be 3.56x as rich

sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
At the same time, the UN expects us to live much longer, have much better educations

- and inequality will drop dramatically, possibly below the levels 200 years ago

You can read about this and much more in my peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
6 Jan
Breathless climate reporting told us of an extraordinary 2020 hurricane season

Yes. It was extraordinary. Extraordinarily *weak*

Globally 2020 was one of the weakest in past 40 years

Accumulated Cyclone Energy was 76% of average (1980-2010)

Update of agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
But we were told of 2020 'record' hurricanes?

Yes, in North Atlantic

But most climate reporting conveniently left out:

much lower hurricane energy in Western Pacific+Eastern Pacific

lower energy in Southern Hemisphere, Nothern Hemisphere and Global

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
We have data back to 1970, but before satellites (~1980), it is probably undercounted. Moreover, 1970s and 1980s were relative hurricane lulls, so starting there can give a spurious upward trend

Still, 2020 was a very un-active year
Read 8 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
4 Jan
Contrary to breathless climate reporting, number of major landfalling US hurricanes — the most reliable hurricane indicator — has not increased since 1900

(Notice unprecedented major hurricane drought from 2006-16)

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o Image
Similarly: Despite breathless climate reporting, the number of landfalling US hurricanes does not show an increase since 1900

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
3 Jan
Contrary to breathless media reporting, land-falling US hurricanes — the most reliable hurricane indicator — does not show an increasing number of hurricanes since 1900

Update of my free, peer-reviewed sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o
Yes, 2020 Atlantic hurricane season very powerful

But Accumulated Cyclone Energy (the integrated metric of frequency, intensity+duration):

2020 only 14th-strongest

1933 — almost a century ago — still strongest, followed by 2005, 2017, 1893 and 1926

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/d…
Read 6 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
21 Nov 20
Why do we donate so much time+money inefficiently?

We care about effectiveness when giving to ourselves or our family

When giving to strangers, we care about what *others* think about us (they don't evaluate us on effectiveness)

nature.com/articles/s4156…
If our giving is multiplied 10x by, say, Gates, we should give more (because your dollar will mean $10 to the good cause)

But we don't give more to charity

If Gates multiplied a giving to ourselves, we *do* give more

nature.com/articles/s4156…
Getting us to give effectively is just very, very hard.

We mostly give in ways that are "reputationally lucrative" — ways that make us look good among our peers

nature.com/articles/s4156…
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Nov 20
Great we're again discussing the real and manmade problem of climate

But let's get the facts straight

Hurricanes are not increasing in frequency

The best way to help Central America is not climate policy but helping them out of poverty

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Best long-term data is US landfalling hurricanes, because reliably recorded since 1900

Frequency of all hurricanes *not* increasing

Frequency of strongest hurricanes (Cat3+) *not* increasing

journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
Just using data across entire Atlantic has two problems:

1) Earlier years, especially after opening of Panama Canal, many storms missed

Here observations of the two strongest hurricane years 1933 and 2005

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.102…
Read 15 tweets

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