I've noticed a theme in some of my recent hate mail: angry complaints that in saying that almost all elected Republicans are corrupt and/or clueless, I'm engaging in a sin akin to ... racism. So let's talk about that 1/
To state what should be obvious, but apparently isn't, being a Republican isn't like being Black (or Jewish). It's not something you're born into, it's a choice. And in 2021, making that choice requires accepting some key GOP tenets 2/
These include the view that a perfectly normal election was stolen and that extreme measures were justified in an attempt to overturn it; and also the view that moderately progressive policies are a radical socialist agenda 3/
Anyone who doesn't accept these views either leaves the GOP or, increasingly, is driven out. So saying that those who remain are bad, wrong-headed, or both is only outrageous if you consider these doctrines reasonable 4/
I mean, must we say nice things about Qanon adherents? Well, the GOP isn't that far gone, but has gone significantly in that direction. And its members, again, are those who accept where it has gone 5/
So if you want to demand bipartisanship, you have to defend the doctrines that currently defy Republicanness. If you won't do that, you're arguing in bad faith 6/
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Yes! America offers far less aid to families with children than other advanced countries, yet there's strong evidence that such aid has big long-term benefits 1/ washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021…
How stingy, how lacking in family values are we? Very 2/
Yet there's compelling evidence that helping children isn't just the decent thing to do, it has long-run benefits to society as a whole 3/ brookings.edu/bpea-articles/…
Still getting anxious mail from people who worry about how America will pay down its debt. Folks, we don't have to pay it down. Here's what happened after WWII: 1/
America never repaid its war debt. It just issued new debt as the old debt came due. But because of inflation and growth, debt as a share of GDP declined steadily, so that by the 60s the war debt was negligible in economic terms 2/
Today, we have an economy where dollar GDP can be expected to grow 3-4% a year, while the feds can borrow at ~1%. This means that debt tends to melt away as a share of GDP unless we run really huge deficits 3/
As Republicans go around claiming that the Biden agenda is job-destroying and whine about deficits, worth remembering that Trump policy was, in effect ... Keynesian. Here's a key picture, explained below 1/
Annual fiscal impulse is the change in CBO's estimate of the cyclically adjusted budget balance; it's a rough measure of stimulus, but good enough to make the point 2/ cbo.gov/publication/56…
Basically, after Rs took the House in 2010, they forced austerity on the Obama administration, delaying recovery. Then they cheerfully presided over both tax cuts and spending increases under Trump 3/
Thread. The rush to austerity in 2010 was NOT policymakers responding to the best available analysis. Standard macroeconomics said that it was a terrible idea; people like Simon and, yes, me tried desperately to head it off 1/
To the extent that the Very Serious People relied on economists at all, they cited ideas about expansionary austerity and red lines for debt that were actually heterodox — and have since been discredited 2/
So claiming that the push for austerity was based on advice from economists, who have since changed their minds, is an evasion of responsibility. VSPs, including the FT, chose to ignore the mainstream and go with the economic equivalents of Scott Atlas 3/
Gonna do a brief (?) wonkish thread on debt sustainability, and why we shouldn't worry about it. Start with the reason many people think it's terrible: they imagine that debt snowballs, because the more debt you have the higher your interest payments, so you run up even more 1/
This happens to individuals and businesses! And it could in principle happen to the U.S. government. But the arithmetic is all wrong — so wrong that even if borrowing costs rise in the future it's just not likely to be an issue 2/
One reason is that the real value of debt is eroded by inflation. Real interest rates are currently negative, and overall real interest payments, as Furman and Summers point out, are at historic lows 3/ piie.com/research/piie-…
Exactly. The most important reason Ds got shellacked in 2010 was that the Obama stimulus was underpowered given the severity of the crisis, largely because of the desire to be bipartisan and not use reconciliation 1/
Voters don't care, or by and large even know about, process. They won't be outraged if Biden uses aggressive tactics to enact stimulus. They will, however, punish his party if they don't see concrete economic gains 3/