As I said in my thread: Even under the BEST case scenario we’re likely looking at Thanksgiving before we’re out of this mess. Don’t be shocked at several hundred thousand more COVID deaths even if the new administration does everything perfectly AND there’s full compliance.
https://twitter.com/rachanadixit/status/1353078127086481414
Here’s one possible scenario: A precise 2% daily drop in new cases each & every day starting on February 1st. Result if that played out? A total of 700,000 dead Americans by Thanksgiving. (405K pre-1/20/21, 295K post 1/20/21).
acasignups.net/21/01/21/sigh-…
acasignups.net/21/01/21/sigh-…
Assuming this projection model is accurate, we’re looking at around 5,000 Americans dying on or around 1/29, after which I presume it starts to drop off. 
Here's what the theoretical "2% drop per day starting 2/01" would look like graphed out through the end of November.
We'd hit 545K dead by 2/28
617K by 3/31
655K by 4/30
676K by 5/30
687K by 6/30
694K by 7/31
697K by 8/31
698K by 9/30
699K by 10/31
700K by Thanksgiving
We'd hit 545K dead by 2/28
617K by 3/31
655K by 4/30
676K by 5/30
687K by 6/30
694K by 7/31
697K by 8/31
698K by 9/30
699K by 10/31
700K by Thanksgiving
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