As I said in my thread: Even under the BEST case scenario we’re likely looking at Thanksgiving before we’re out of this mess. Don’t be shocked at several hundred thousand more COVID deaths even if the new administration does everything perfectly AND there’s full compliance.
Here’s one possible scenario: A precise 2% daily drop in new cases each & every day starting on February 1st. Result if that played out? A total of 700,000 dead Americans by Thanksgiving. (405K pre-1/20/21, 295K post 1/20/21).

acasignups.net/21/01/21/sigh-…
Assuming this projection model is accurate, we’re looking at around 5,000 Americans dying on or around 1/29, after which I presume it starts to drop off.
Here's what the theoretical "2% drop per day starting 2/01" would look like graphed out through the end of November.

We'd hit 545K dead by 2/28
617K by 3/31
655K by 4/30
676K by 5/30
687K by 6/30
694K by 7/31
697K by 8/31
698K by 9/30
699K by 10/31
700K by Thanksgiving

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More from @charles_gaba

23 Jan
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: Which *counties* have the highest per capita rates of #COVID19 cases & deaths? 1/
acasignups.net/21/01/23/weekl…
Counties w/highest cumul. per capita #COVID19 cases:
1. Crowley County, CO
2. Dewey County, SD
3. Bent County, CO
4. Lincoln County, AR
5. Lake County, TN
6. Norton County, KS
7. Bon Homme County, SD
8. Chattahoochee County, GA
9. Buffalo County, SD
10. Trousdale County, TN
2/
29% of Crowley County, Colorado has tested positive for #COVID19 to date. Yes, they have a large prison population. Prisoners are still people, as are guards/admin.
3/
Read 8 tweets
23 Jan
I’d like to note that @MarcACaputo chose to wait until Trump is about to face an impeachment trial for inciting his supporters into invading the Capitol in a violent coup attempt in order to establish himself as dictator for life to respond to accusations of his being a Nazi.
📣 For those new to this 4-year saga, here's the backstory (long but crammed full of receipts): acasignups.net/20/11/18/open-…
Read 19 tweets
23 Jan
(sigh) Let's do some basic math on Biden's start-from-scratch #COVID19 federal response, folks... acasignups.net/21/01/21/sigh-…
Let’s suppose the U.S. holds at 220K new cases daily thru 1/31 but then sees new cases drop off at a rate of exactly 2% per day.

How long would it take to get down to, say, 500 new cases per day nationally?

Thanksgiving.
How many *more* Americans would die of COVID-19 by then at that rate?

Nearly 300,000.

In short, we blew it BADLY last year and the genie isn’t gonna go back in the bottle easily at this point even if the Biden Admin does everything PERFECTLY with FULL compliance nationally.
Read 4 tweets
22 Jan
📣 UPDATE: It's not over yet! 2021 #ACA Open Enrollment is STILL HAPPENING in these states! #GetCovered today! 1/
acasignups.net/21/01/22/updat…
CALIFORNIA: Enroll at CoveredCA.com by 1/31 for coverage starting February 1st!

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Enroll at DCHealthLink.com by 1/31 for coverage starting March 1st!

#GetCovered Today!
MARYLAND: Enroll at MarylandHealthConnection.Gov by 2/15 for coverage starting February 1st (retroactive!). Enroll by 3/15 for coverage starting March 1st.

#GetCovered Today!
Read 9 tweets
22 Jan
Was listening to an eclectic playlist of stuff from the '80s when one of Bill Cosby's old standup routines came on. I immediately cringed and am deleting the album from my library. 1/
However, if I'm watching a movie starring, say, Kevin Spacey, it doesn't bother me.

I can't watch Woody Allen films anymore...but I could watch "Chinatown" without Roman Polanski being in the front of my mind even though he has a cameo in the film. 2/
I think the difference is how much they call attention to themselves. A Bill Cosby routine is 100% *him*. Even the show was literally called "The Cosby Show". And Woody Allen is ALWAYS Woody Allen; it's impossible to see him or hear his voice without immediately knowing it's him.
Read 6 tweets
21 Jan
The responses to this are absurdly stupid. We passed 410,000 deaths yesterday. Anyone dying for the next several weeks contracted #COVID19 before 1/20, and the worst daily toll will likely hit in around a week (~5,000).

2/28 = 38 days from now. 90K/38 = ~2,400/day.
Even if Biden were somehow able to magically bring the total number of new cases down to 0 *TODAY* that'd still be a good 75,000 more Americans dying by mid-February.

And we've been *averaging* 220,000 cases/day in January so far.
Let's say that Biden's #COVID19 team were able to (again, magically) reduce the number of new cases by 5% *each and every day* *starting today* (again, magic!). That would still mean another 130,000 or so deaths by the end of March (at which point it'd be down to ~250/day).
Read 9 tweets

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