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24 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
We can expect +2C of global warming just from emissions that have already occurred.

Some of this committed warming will happen within decades, and though much of it will take centuries, without emergency system change now, we face the hell of a rapid shift to +2C by the 2030s.
1.
We can expect +1.5C by 2025-2030.

This could happen even with major climate action.

i) 67% chance (depending on assumptions)
theconversation.com/new-research-s…

ii) 2026-2032 (1800s baseline)
carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…

iii) 1.5C as early as 2025 (1800s baseline)
nature.com/articles/d4158…
2.
'committed warming has a most-likely value of around 2.5C.. just from emissions that have already occurred

if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the rate we currently are, we will blow through the 1.5 and 2C limits possibly within a few decades.'
independent.co.uk/environment/gr…
3.
i) dire 2C sooner than 2045 looks more and more like a scenario we should expect
nature.com/articles/d4158…

ii) 2C exceeded as early as 2034 in the highest emissions scenario (median ,of 2043) and as early as 2038 with modest mitigation (median of 2052)
carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
25 Jan
What does Professor Betts mean by 'runaway' in this discussion when he says,

"We haven't sort of set off any kind of runaway uncontrollable climate change yet, and in fact we may not do for a long time"?

We *may* not?!

Video (watch from 3mins45):



1/ Image
I have been told by scientists that there is no feedback scenario at 2C which moves us to something much hotter.

See this thread:



2/
However, the Hothouse Earth theory is not dismissed by Betts, but he sees it as speculation:

'even if the self-perpetuating changes do begin within a few decades, the process would take a long time to fully kick in – centuries or millennia.' theconversation.com/hothouse-earth…

3/
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
25 Jan
Hi @coxypm

Is it fair to say 2C, likely by between the late 2030s and mid-century, will lead to the release of vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere from tropical, temperate & Arctic soils, and Earth's oceans & forests, and thus to further warming?

futurism.com/the-byte/soil-…
and will this 'fast-track us toward planetary disaster' as stated in the article?
exeter.ac.uk/news/research/…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
24 Jan
How do journalists feel about the fact that 99% of their readers and viewers don't realise we can no longer avoid calamitous levels of global warming by 2025 - 2034 which will combine with habitat destruction and pollution to begin to seriously threaten organised human society?
We can expect 1.5°C by around 2025-2030. This is a catastrophe, though climate models indicate truly horrific 2°C by 2034 is a real possibility.

Most of the largest rainforests have now reached tipping points of some kind.

Who will focus on this reality?
1.5C by 2025-2030 is highly likely.

nature.com/articles/d4158…

2C by 2034-2043 is increasingly likely, not least because emissions may well be set for a #COVID19 rebound in 2021/22.

At 2C there will be climate chaos impacts we just cannot cope with.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
22 Jan
I'm more than happy to answer when someone asks how I cope with the grim information on here because of course it needs to be talked about, and lots of people struggle with the feelings that inevitably arise from confronting what is happening. The fact is
whatever I feel (and I'm only talking about my feelings here) is nothing compared to people who are really suffering - those billions dealing with the famine, hunger, poverty and/or war which are overlapping with ecological and climate breakdown. It's much easier to 'cope'
when you're privileged (see my photo, job, location. For years reminding myself of my privilege when I was low made me feel worse, but that's in the past). I've talked through feeling low a good deal over the decades, so now I'm well set up to handle the grim science.
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
20 Jan
Every US president since Lyndon Johnson has known about the catastrophic effects of greenhouse gases and done nothing but make things worse.

Now for a reasonable chance of decent survival there are only 9 years left to stop all emissions from the whole global industrial economy.
1. For a 67 per cent chance of not exceeding catastrophic 1.5C of global warming, 'total CO2 emissions must not exceed 230 billion tonnes. This is about five years of current emissions, or reaching net-zero emissions by 2030.'

However...

theconversation.com/new-research-s…
2. in reality we could hit 1.5C in the next 5 years, so we may well only have 1 - 8 years left.

This stark reality should provoke massive emergency action, but relatively few people are aware because the media remain silent.

Time to tell everyone.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
19 Jan
The prospect of the near total obliteration of summer Arctic sea-ice before 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving zero carbon emissions in the 2020s.
"The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible."phys.org/news/2020-08-e…
“We’re never going to return to conditions like there were in the 1980s and 90s,” she says. “It’s not recovering. There are going to be ups and downs, but it’s never going to go back to what it was, given our current climate state today.”

2035...or before.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/0…
Read 7 tweets

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