A few quick thoughts on $SFIX none of which are comments about the share's recent & rapid rise in value. My interest in the business is really what it can do over the very long haul.
Stitch Fix has one very critical element that I believe is very important to the size of the market it can ultimately address: Stitch Fix is less of a brand than it is a service.
Stitch Fix’s brand is more closely aligned with the utility of its service, rather than a particular demographic, format, or style, essentially allowing the company to sell anything to anyone, no matter the zip/post code.
By not being boxed in - pun intended - to a particular age group or sex, Stitch Fix is far less susceptible to swings in style than many ecommerce operations. The type of units that it can successfully sell will be able to vary more dramatically than most peers.
This has occurred fairly seamlessly already as WFH created demand for very different types of units year over year.
From a consumer's point of view, Stitch Fix's service is decidedly low on technology and ultimately replicates the tried-and-true process of trying on clothes for potential purchase.
Dramatically streamlining this process for consumers *is* the brand more than anything else which ultimately elongates the addressable market far more than would be natural for most apparel sellers.
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It’s midnight & feeling a little 1999-ish right now. It's a different flavor today of course but when it starts looking easy on the long side that usually means it's actually pretty treacherous out there ✈️📰📈☠️ (1/x)
That being said, shorting clearly over-valued/over-hyped small to medium sized companies can be deadly as well. Timing can make all the difference in the world
This brings me to Skymall. It used to be a publicly traded small cap HQ'd in Phoenix. It was a quirky mail order catalogue that sat in the back seat pocket of airline seats
2020 has been an interesting year for food delivery to say the least. Of course the big event was the new virus life that dramatically altered the industry's trajectory
It remains to be seen which trends in delivery should be extrapolated and which should not be. There will be a lot of alpha available to those that can successfully figure this out
A deal for GHUB, the DDash IPO and Uber getting more credit for delivery assets has created a window of stability in the near term in the U.S.
I don't have a view on $SFIX's coming quarterly results but I've been thinking more about dynamics that may, over time, help drive improved financial results for the company
The apparel recommendation feed for direct buy seems perfectly suited for sponsored listings at one point. This kind of optimization may be a ways off for Stitch but promoted brands/pieces would flow very naturally from the current version of the feed
There's no reason to believe that Stitch couldn't make a nice margin from brands seeking promotion on its platform
One of the harder things in investing for me is dealing with a contrarian investment thesis at the outset that becomes significantly less so over time
A minority point of view that transitions to more of a consensus view typically means the market is willing to pay more for the same opportunity that was originally spotted
The payoff for being correct changes and with a consistent end state, the risk vs reward attractiveness has gotten worse mathematically. This can make it tempting reduce such an investment
I did some thinking this week and wanted to put into words a topic I've thought about again recently pertaining to many of the growth/challenger companies I’ve visited over the years.
When a new model is being pursued to serve an existing market, the problems that need to solved and the bottlenecks that manifest may be completely different than what incumbents experience.
A challenger company with a slightly different twist to its service/offering may, over time, magnify these differences so that in effect it is pursuing a completely different business than incumbents.