Thread by @Trinhnomics

Let's track India vaccination efforts (redo as older tweets had many errors):
*It has delivered 1.6 million doses (need 2 per person) in the past 9 days
*Goal is 300 millions by August 2021 or slightly above 20% of total population

India & Indonesia amongst the earliest to start

India is the best emerging market in Asia in term of vaccine acquisition as a share of total population. Many haven't acquired enough.

For India, even w/ enough, its goal is only slightly above 20% by Q3 2021 & it also has one of the earlier starts in Asia.

This is the distribution schedule (X axis) & many start in Jan or Feb but don't let the start date fool u, you can start, but finishing depends on available doses (acquisition key) & also goal of pace of distribution.

No Asian economy has a goal to finish 100% by end 2021.

Here is a table by country of vaccine type acquired, % population secured, distribution start date & goal:

India share of population acquired is rather good & comparable to developed Asia but question is whether WHEN it will deliver all the vaccines acquired.

Indonesia is another one that has a head start in Asia & also not bad in term of % of population acquired (relying on Chinese vaccines that has lower effectiveness). Goal for Indonesia is 68% by end 2021 (lower threshold for herd immunity but given effectiveness likely not enough

Thailand starting in Feb but hasn't acquired enough. For the ones acquired, most will be delivered in April & May so the question is can Thailand open up its #2 sector: tourism?

Some lobbying for vaccinated tourists to enter but they can carry the virus.

ft.com/content/d4a4de…

So if Asia isn't going to reach herd immunity by end 2021 (don't forget we're in Jan 2021 so things can change for the better), then how will we recover & what shape will we?

Is the best hope domestic mobility (Vietnam, Taiwan & China style) rather than international in 2021???

If so, the most affected remains those most dependent on international mobility, such as Thailand (and also other ASEAN economies like Indonesia and the Philippines etc that have a high share of tourism/gdp & low exports as a share of GDP).

Let's see. Still early but not good..

To juxtapose with Asia, we should look at how the rest are doing? Europe is behind but the UK is ahead w/ 10% of total population vaccinated. US is 7%.

Of course, Israel rocks it at 40%. It will be done soon at this rate. Btw, US cases are starting to fall already.