THREAD 1/7 Saturday’s protests were also noticeable for the lack of humorous slogans and placards in comparison with previous Russian protests . The protesters were very serious, even gloomy. From my current piece carnegie.ru/commentary/837…
2/7 The slogans lacked the usual appeals to the law, democracy, and the constitution. This protest was not about calling on the authorities to follow the law, count votes fairly, allow candidates to run. It was a march against those in power bit.ly/36d6zIm
3/7 Unlike the protests that followed the murder of the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Saturday’s Moscow rally was not dominated by representatives of the capital’s liberal intelligentsia bit.ly/36d6zIm
4/7 The Moscow protest this weekend was far less peaceful than all previous events: there were many clashes with riot police, right from the start bit.ly/36d6zIm
5/7 A combined imperative of freedom, order, and justice is at least as evident as classical liberal and democratic values. It’s not surprising that such protests frighten not only the regime, but also successful members of society bit.ly/36d6zIm
6/7 The authorities preemptively exaggerated the confrontation to justify their harsh reaction. In their version, the security services aren’t just breaking up protests; they’re on the front line, resisting a revolution sponsored by foreign enemies bit.ly/36d6zIm
77/ Now the protests’ organizers are trying to make them a regular event as long as Navalny remains in prison. A situation like that in neighboring Belarus is taking shape, in which the opposition can get people out on the streets on a weekly basis bit.ly/36d6zIm

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More from @baunov

16 Oct 20
1/7 The new round of sanctions introduced by the EU against Russia over the poisoning of opposition politician Alexei Navalny have three key aspects. My take here carnegie.ru/commentary/829…
2/7They target individual people and organizations, rather than entire sectors of the economy; they don’t follow the suggestion of targeting the subjects of Navalny’s investigations; and they don’t distinguish between the siloviki (security services) hawks and in-system liberals
3/7 The list does not mention the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, although judging by multiple public statements made on the issue, canceling the pipeline project is seen as the most effective punishment bit.ly/3dF8t7m
Read 7 tweets
9 Oct 20
1/8 Russia is not charging in to help its ally Armenia because it doesn’t just matter who is under attack, but who they are under attack from. My take on Russia's present role in #NagornoKarabakh carnegie.ru/commentary/829…
2/8Unlike other former Soviet republics with frozen conflicts (Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova), Azerbaijan has not been an enemy state for Russia. Azerbaijan has cooperated with NATO, but it has never voiced any official ambition to join the alliance bit.ly/3jK43OH
3/8 Among the former Soviet states, Azerbaijan has always been an example of how to follow a foreign policy that is entirely independent from Russia, while maintaining a good relationship with Moscow bit.ly/3jK43OH
Read 8 tweets
5 Oct 20
1/5 Now the old methods are proving less effective in forcing Navalny outside the already narrow Russian political space. My new short piece carnegie.ru/commentary/828…
2/5 It’s his increased visibility and unwitting mythologization brought about by the poisoning that have prompted the accusations that Navalny is a CIA agent parroting a foreign paymaster’s charges against Putin personally bit.ly/3jzeZOX
3/5 Putin, who believes that enemies deserve respect, while traitors do not, doesn’t want to do Navalny the honor of giving him the status of an enemy.
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct 20
1/7 Among much real and imagined bad news from Russia, this really is awful bit.ly/2SeZaRJ
2/7 Russia’s Investigative Committee has arrested staff & doctors of companies that provided surrogacy services to single men (in reality, some of them in gay couples), is removing children from their families, & threatening to charge the fathers with trafficking children.
3/7 There is ongoing discussion about the moral and legal aspects of surrogacy around the world. But the arguments the Russian authorities are using in this particular case have nothing to do with protecting women or children.
Read 7 tweets
8 Sep 20
1/6 Lukashenko was quicker that others to offer a conspiracy theory about Navalny’s poisoning that points the finger at the West. bit.ly/2Gzxl3K
2/6 The Belarusian president’s intervention in the Navalny affair ties it to his country’s unrest, even if the demonstrations did not factor into the decision to attack the opposition leader.
3/6 Few will believe the version of events implied by Lukashenko’s purported recording of a phone call between officials in Berlin and Warsaw. But it is meant to provide Russia’s state propaganda with yet another dubious narrative with which to muddy the waters.
Read 6 tweets
3 Sep 20
1/8 There is a considerable difference between the #Navalny case and previous poisonings where Russia was accused. Alexander Litvinenko & Sergei Skripal were exiles poisoned in a foreign country (the UK) and hardly known to anyone in Russia or abroad before the attacks.
2/8 Navalny is very well known both inside and outside Russia, and was poisoned on Russian soil. The others were figures from the past, he is a figure from the present, if not the future
3/8 Litvinenko & Skripal were former Russian security service members and could be seen by the special services as traitors who should be punished.
Read 8 tweets

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