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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jan 25, 2021 • 22 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
BREAKING—Good & bad news—The Moderna #COVID19 vaccine fully protected against the UK 🇬🇧 #B117 variant... but was 6x less efficient at neutralizing the South African #B1351 variant in lab test. Moderna is testing a newly synthesized booster for it—3rd shot. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01… Image
2) To be clear—6x less efficient doesn’t mean no protection against #B11351, it’s still good but not as good as before. As a precaution, Moderna announced it will launch two new studies—including adding a third shot of its current vaccine to boost its two-dose regimen.
3) press release is very cautiously worded—“6-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels w/ B.1.351 remain above levels expected to be protective.”
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
4) “The two-dose regimen of the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine at the 100 µg dose is expected to be protective against emerging strains detected to date. Nonetheless, Moderna today announced its clinical strategy to proactively address the pandemic as the virus continues to evolve.”
5) “First, the Company will test an additional booster dose of its COVID-19 Vaccine (mRNA-1273) to study the ability to further increase neutralizing titers against emerging strains beyond the existing primary vaccination series.”
6) “Second, the Company is advancing an emerging variant booster candidate (mRNA-1273.351) against the B.1.351 variant first identified in the Republic of South Africa. The Company is advancing mRNA-1273.351 into preclinical studies and a Phase 1 study in the U.S.”
7) “to evaluate the immunological benefit of boosting with strain-specific spike proteins. Moderna expects its mRNA-based booster vaccine (whether mRNA-1273 or mRNA-1273.351) will be able to further boost neutralizing titers in combination with all leading vaccine candidates.”
8) “We are encouraged by these new data, which reinforce our confidence that the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine **should** be protective against these newly detected variants,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna.

*emphasis mine.
9) “Out of an abundance of caution and leveraging the flexibility of our mRNA platform, we are advancing an emerging variant booster candidate against ( #B1351 variant ) to determine if it will be more effective to boost titers against this and potentially future variants.”
10) “The in vitro study assessed the ability of mRNA-1273 to elicit potently neutralizing antibodies against the new #SARSCoV2 variants, using sera from 8 Phase 1 clinical trial participants (aged 18-55 years) who received two 100 µg doses of mRNA-1273...
11) “and separately using sera from non-human primates (NHPs) immunized with two doses of 30 µg or 100 µg of mRNA-1273.”

➡️They tested blood of both humans and primates who were vaccinated with **2 FULL DOSES**.
12) Pfizer also says their vaccine works against the #B117, however the @GuptaR_lab says they found a ~3.8-fold lower neutralization among blood of 15 Pfizer-vaccinated individuals to the #B117 variant.
13) But much more worrisome was the recent data that found blood from 48% of people previously recovered from #COVID19 in the 1st 2020 wave in South Africa did not recognize the new #B1351 variant — “complete immune escape”. 90% had lower neutralization.
14) To be clear, the South Africa research was done by their CDC @nicd_sa and tested the E484K mutation in the #b1351, which is also shared by the Brazil 🇧🇷 #P1 variant. This PQ was the variant also detected in Japan among 🇧🇷 travelers.
15) But the South Africa 🇿🇦 and Brazil 🇧🇷 variants have worried WHO director @DrTedros enough to put out a warning.
16) Moderna adds

“For B.1.351 variant... pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers were approximately 6-fold lower relative to prior variants.

➡️These lower titers may suggest a potential risk of earlier waning of immunity to the new B.1.351 strains.”
17) this is why South Africa’s CDC @nicd_sa put out this stunning statement last week on the “reinfection” potential of the new #B1351 variant. Because of the 48% of recovered #COVID19 patients with “complete immune escape”
18) Given the similarity of the South Africa 🇿🇦 and Brazil 🇧🇷 variants (they both share the troublesome E484 mutation that has shown antibody escape in 9 out of 11 blood samples from convalescent people), many expect both variants might have vaccine efficacy lowering issues. Image
19) For the Pfizer vaccine #B117 mutation, there are conflicting studies—Pfizer/BioNTech’s own study shows no drop in B117 neutralization (left), but the @GuptaR_lab study of Pfizer vaccinated patients shows a 3.8-fold drop (right). Trying to figure out why divergent results. ImageImage
20) there is now also concern the #B117 variant might have roughly a ~30% increased risk of death. 7 out of 10 studies supports it. Here’s the walk thru thread 🧵 on it...
21) Hence because of the greater contagiousness of #B117 and possible higher mortality risk, we should all upgrade our masks....
22) Efficacy drop is *NOT* 1/6th of 95%. It’s not a 1/6th direct efficacy correlation.

There are other ways to neutralize a virus like with T cells too—that’s not measured usually. Only a trial can show the % efficacy. I expect it still >50%. Likely 70-90%.

➡️Take the vaccine!

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 30
⚠️Huge—HUMAN RESPIRATORY INFECTION BY BIRD FLU—A third human case of H5 bird flu just diagnosed in a Michigan farm worker. The individual worked on a dairy farm & didn’t wear PPE. ➡️However—“With this case, respiratory symptoms occurred after direct exposure to an infected cow”—including cough and other respiratory symptoms! Thus is the first bird flu case in which an infected individual reported respiratory symptoms. The 2 human cases reported earlier this year experienced only conjunctivitis (pink eye).

💡Why is respiratory illness significant? It means the bird flu virus has somehow evolved to go respiratory. “The significance of respiratory symptoms relates to the possibility of onward spread. In people, influenza transmits via the respiratory route. A person with flu virus in their airways could be more likely to spread the virus — if the virus has the capacity to transmit between humans — than a person with an infection in their eye.”

statnews.com/2024/05/30/bir…Image
2) CDC declares: “this is the FIRST HUMAN CASE of the H5 virus in the U.S. to report more typical symptoms of acute respiratory illness associated with influenza virus infection”.

cdc.gov/media/releases…
Image
3) This is why CDC has adamantly recommended strict PPE for all dairy and poultry farmworkers and veterinarians. But the word is that farms are resisting PPE use. Hence this mess.
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 24
⚠️My god—RAW MILK WITH BIRD FLU CAN SICKEN—Latest raw milk bird flu study found insanely worrying results. Plus pasteurization heating doesn’t neutralize all bird flu virus!

📌Mice who drank raw milk infected with H5N1 got very sick! And starting from day 1.

📌Finally, 72 degree Celsius pasteurization heated milk did not neutralize the bird flu virus in milk—they used the heated milk with the virus to infect cells successfully.

This is EXACTLY the nightmare that me and @RickABright predicted & worried about!
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…Image
Image
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2) Furthermore, raw milk with the bird flu virus can survive refrigeration for several weeks! Image
3) “Heat treatment at 72°C was performed, with the default settings of the PCR thermocycler (i.e., preheated lid at 105°C) or with a metal lid (heated to 72°C) covering the PCR block (see the Supplementary Appendixfor details). After heat treatment, samples were inoculated into embryonated chicken eggs or Madin–Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells for virus detection. Under these conditions, heat treatment for 15 or 20 seconds reduced virus titers by more than 4.5 log units but did not completely inactivate the virus”Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 21
HIP FRACTURE DEADLIER THAN CANCER for elderly. A new 🇨🇦 study finds only 1/3 of men & 1/2 of women age>=65 still alive 5 years after a hip fracture. In contrast, 5 year cancer survival higher. But we don’t focus on fracture prevention & nutrition enough.
theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…
2) By comparison, the five-year survival rate for older adults is 85 per cent for men diagnosed with prostate cancer, 80 per cent for women with breast cancer, and 56 per cent for colon cancer.
3) Broken hips are both the most common and the deadliest (of fractures). Researchers noted that while women have much better survival rates than men after hip fractures, women are also far more likely to break bones in the first place.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 20
“As unnerving as H5N1’s current spread in cows might be, “I would be a whole lot more concerned if this was an event in pigs’… Swine airways are evolutionary playgrounds where viruses can convert—and have converted—into ones that prefer to infect us.” 🧵
theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
2) “A flu virus that jumped from swine to humans, for instance, catalyzed the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. If there’s a list of riskiest animals for an avian flu to infiltrate, “pigs are clearly at the top,” Webby said”
3) “To successfully spread in a new species, a flu virus must infiltrate that creature’s cells, reproduce inside of them, and then make it to the next host. This H5N1 has managed that feat in several animals, but so far, “we’re actually still dealing with a very avian virus,”
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 16
⚠️NO RARE BEEF!—@USDA suddenly admits (after Q&A pestering) that 120F cooked beef🥩patties experimentally inoculated with H5N1 virus still had surviving virus.

➡️“Cooking to… 120° F did show that there was virus still in the cooked hamburger patty, although at reduced levels." Image
2) Initially the @USDA only stated that no virus survived cooking to 160 F and 145 F. But they didn’t volunteer the 120 F rare cooking temperature results! Only after more questioning did they reveal 120 F virus survival. But so many folks eat rare meat! 🥩 DISCLOSURE CRITICAL!
3) here was the initial USDA press conference announcement. Made no mention of the results for virus levels in beef at lower temperatures.
Read 12 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 15
Dear Raw Milk drinkers— behold your future:

“West Virginia politician falls ill due to drinking unpasteurized milk after helping pass a law that legalized raw milk.”

eater.com/2016/3/9/11186…
Image
The FDA has completely dropped the ball on stopping raw milk trade.
3) Folks— famous Typhoid Fever outbreak in UK 🇬🇧 — caused by RAW MILK 🥛… legendary case from 1937.

We don’t learn from history do we? We just have to learn the hard way all over?
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets

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