Thread by @iamgkadam

Colour me biased but very little has been said about India and it's absolute squashing of (reported) cases in media overall, Western and otherwise, afaik. It's quite something for a densely populated state to reach 100k/day then go down this well, clearly lots to learn (1/)

Sure there's underreporting, but if you argue that, then the peak looks even worse which makes this even more amazing IMHO. No more huge reports of any hospitals being stressed, so this just has to be real (2/)

First hand exp, can say people back on streets, shops open - many offices still shut, but public transport ~normal crowds yet no resurgence. Winter in the north is as cold as UK, yet no resurgence there either, so not just weather (3/)

Social distancing is next to nothing (primarily because impossible), yet cases have⬇️. Yes, India has favourable age demographics but can't prevent affecting vulnerable groups as they still transmit, so it can't explain by itself lack of huge # deaths (4/)

Likely many reasons, biological cultural & more, all small by themselves but w/ synergistic effects:
1 - some level of generic protective immunity. Unhygienic - by west stds - environmental conditions possibly leading to enhanced "battle ready" state of immune system? (5/)

2 - ventilated houses/shops. Very few areas are fully enclosed (true even at height of summer (40C+) and height of winter (<10C in large swathes of north), enabling some air flow at least and largely reducing indoor transmission.

3 - testing regimes. the central-state coordinated response enabled private labs to test, expanding availability quickly but data was collected centrally from all tests, allowing central response management.

4 - localized on ground nimble solutions. in one city, the govt setup door to door daily checking thru army of paid workers to identify symptomatic cases and encourage testing. Daily walk up fever camps run in many areas. Localized marking of affected areas and targeted solutions

5 - more nimble solutions, this time from citizens. For ex., in many cities, produce vendors switched to driving through neighbourhoods w supplies so residents could buy at door without risking going to crowded shops

6 - fairly universal rule adherence. though anti-mask/anti-lockdown sentiments were prevalent, vast majority wore (still wear) masks in big cities, and followed most guidelines.

7 - regulated intra-country travel. each state developed its own rules, updated as situation changed, but reasonable tracking systems were in place to capture information. went overboard sometimes sure, but better safe than sorry in a pandemic?

These come to mind, but I probably missed many more.

All this of course not to imply response was perfect - sudden harsh lockdown hit many millions very hard leading to unconscionable consequences, incl non-virus deaths as people migrated on foot. True cost will never be known

But if one does accept that and still looks with an open eye, I think there are many important learnings to take away for the future and for other countries. India might have had some (biological?) luck but also important to build on it.

Do comment and critique, love to hear contrarian viewpoints and angles I must have missed.

As it so happens, today was India's republic day, a day of pride indeed for all Indians. 🇮🇳

A thread on factors and moves that might have contributed to India's virus squashing response (so far). Hoping to discuss & hear views, contrarian or otherwise!

@PriyankaPulla @ainvvy @HarmitMalik @pickettjessica @zeusisdead @BallouxFrancois @krishashok

https://twitter.com/iamgkadam/status/1354102848812888072

A thread on factors and moves that might have contributed to India's virus squashing response (so far). Hoping to discuss & hear views, contrarian or otherwise!

@drkamnakakkar @Andrew007Uk @KurtadikarKetan @Stuffedparatha @stpalli @sambit_dash @kakape

https://twitter.com/iamgkadam/status/1354102848812888072

A thread on factors and moves that might have contributed to India's virus squashing response (so far). Hoping to discuss & hear views, contrarian or otherwise!

@DeepaAgashe @Laasyasam @RMantri @Srivashist @rajbhagatt @ScienceShared @tvpadma @rsidd120

https://twitter.com/iamgkadam/status/1354102848812888072

A thread on factors and moves that might have contributed to India's virus squashing response (so far). Hoping to discuss & hear views, contrarian or otherwise!

@bhalomanush @karthiks @deeptabhattacha @VincentRK @TheNunJay @devisridhar

https://twitter.com/iamgkadam/status/1354102848812888072?s=20

Francois and co argue, and I'd say convincingly to me, that India didn't escape by any means and we just got lucky due to our hugely skewed age demographics. See sub-thread here

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1354383094250409987