1/My latest @bopinion post is about Biden's call for an immigrant amnesty -- a path to citizenship for the country's 11+ million undocumented immigrants.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/Illegal immigration halted and went into reverse sometime in 2007.
But would Biden's amnesty restore the pre-2007 situation?
Possible, but highly unlikely.
But would Biden's amnesty restore the pre-2007 situation?
Possible, but highly unlikely.
3/First of all, many people believe that Reagan's 1986 amnesty -- the biggest in American history -- was responsible for the huge wave of illegal immigration.
But in fact, it probably *reduced* that wave.
voxeu.org/article/us-imm…
But in fact, it probably *reduced* that wave.
voxeu.org/article/us-imm…
4/Also, how many people would upend their lives and go live a fugitive underground life in a strange land in the hope of another amnesty 35 YEARS LATER? It makes no sense!!
5/But more fundamentally, a lot has changed between 1986 and 2021.
For one thing, Mexicans just don't have many kids anymore.
For one thing, Mexicans just don't have many kids anymore.
6/Families need some minimum number of kids to stay home and take care of the aging parents. With a fertility rate of 2 instead of 4, there just aren't extra kids to send north to work and send remittances.
7/Not only that, but Mexico's GDP per capita (in PPP terms) is about $20,000.
That's well past the level when emigration pressure tends to drop off.
ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
That's well past the level when emigration pressure tends to drop off.
ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
8/Plus, it's simply a lot harder to get to the U.S. and stay in the U.S. than it used to be.
One reason is that Bush actually "built the wall", with the Secure Fence Act of 2006.
georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/…
One reason is that Bush actually "built the wall", with the Secure Fence Act of 2006.
georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/…
9/"BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CARAVAAAAAAAANS!!!", people shriek.
Folks, the caravans are tiny compared to what we used to get. They haven't come close to balancing out the reduction in the undocumented population since 2007.
Folks, the caravans are tiny compared to what we used to get. They haven't come close to balancing out the reduction in the undocumented population since 2007.
10/Plus, Central American fertility is falling too.
11/Also, Biden's not going to implement open borders, so breathe into a paper bag for a minute and calm down. 😆
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
12/Anyway, in sum, a Biden amnesty would be highly unlikely to bring a major new wave of illegal immigration.
It would merely save 11+ million people from having to live like fugitives in a country that has become their own.
(end)
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
It would merely save 11+ million people from having to live like fugitives in a country that has become their own.
(end)
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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