#Ukraine thread. Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) published its latest opinion #poll.
According to the poll, only 19.8% of Ukrainians were willing to vote for incumbent @ZelenskyyUa in a presidential election. Reminder: he was elected with 72% in Apr 2019.
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Zelenskyi's party, the ruling Servant of the People, which won majority in parliament in July 2019, fairs even worse.
With 11.2%, it ranks 4th in electoral preferences, behind pro-Russian OPFL, Poroshenko's YeS and Tymoshenko's Fatherland:
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According to the poll, 74.3% of Ukrainian respondents think that Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction. This figure is 90.7% in the government-controlled areas of Donbas:
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Falling approval ratings for Zelenskyi and his party would indicate higher likelihood of cabinet reshuffle or PM resignation, as Ze is trying to regain his populartiy. Exactly these factors were behind dismissal of PM @O__Honcharuk in March 2020.
#Ukraine THREAD. KIIS, a prominent Ukrainian pollster, published its latest study of political views and preferences of the electorate based on October 2020 opinion polls. More below.
THREAD on Ukraine's Constitutional Court ruling from 27 October, when it ruled that it was unconstitutional to hold public officials criminally liable for intentionally providing deliberately false information on asset declarations.
It also rescinded several powers of the National Agency for Preventing Corruption (NAZK). The CC ruled as unconstitutional the NAZK’s powers to verify asset declarations and monitor officials’ lifestyles for signs of corruption.
Free public access to officials' declarations was also made illegal, as were e-declarations meant to increase transparency. The CC rescinded NAZK’s right to access registers, draft reports on violations, and conduct anti-corruption inspections in government agencies.
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Given that I am currently in the middle of the old #Lemko country, here's a thread on who are Lemkos. They were an ethnic group residing in Western Carpathians along the current border between Poland and Slovakia
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2/x Lemkos affiliation with other ethnicities is controversial, although individual Lemkos generally self-identify as a sub-group of Ruthenians and/or Ukrainians. Other ethnic groups identifying as Ruthenians and/or Ukrainian include the Boykos and Hutsuls.
3/x The spoken language of the Lemkos has been variously described as a language in its own right, a dialect of Rusyn or a dialect of Ukrainian. But due to proximity to speakers of Polish and Slovak, the Lemko speech was strongly influenced by these two languages.
We are 10 days after the rigged 9 August election and I see three potential scenarios for the months ahead. In 2 of these scenarios Lukashenka goes, and in 1 stays.
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Scenario 1. Civil and labour unrest continue, damaging the economy and creating cracks int he elites, who start to defect from Lukashenka's admin. After losing support in his own government, Lukashenka goes - and most probably flees the country.
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Scenario 2. Protests turn more violent in response to renewed police violence against the protesters. Protesters take over detention centres and government buildings. Violent overthrow of Lukshenka administration - he flees the country if he is lucky.
Today is the day of presidential election in my native Belarus. It is the 6th election in Belarusian history. Only 1994 election was deemed free and fair, and votes in 2001, 2006, 2010 and 2015 were marred by electoral fraud and government repression.
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When the election was announced in early May 2020, it was expected that they would closely resemble the vote of 2015. During which Lukashenka, in power in Belarus since 1994, ran against the crowd of extras who did not really present any threats to him.
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It quickly emerged that Lukashenka would be challenged from an unexpected front. Not by the the established opposition, mostly confined to identity politics, but by new figures - banker Viktar Babaryka, YouTube blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski and ex-diplomat Valery Tsapkala.
A year ago, on 21 April 2019 in #Ukraine, 73% of voters elected president @ZelenskyyUa as the new head of state. I voiced my multiple concerns about his candidacy back in spring 2019, and now I can tell you: I TOLD YOU SO.
My main concern was correct: @ZelenskyyUa's incompetence led to political instability, with cabinet reshuffles and key officials being dismissed. Policy was inconsistent - this inconsistency scares investors.
Zelenskyi brought back to the government roles many people who have served under Yanukovych. There has at least a partial revanche of the regime ancien.