+UPDATE+

EU & US do deal to open up EU financial markets to US banks.

As UK banks have only time limited access to EU financial markets it is likely that without a deal UK clearing banks will lose out to EU & US banks putting at risk London’s role as dominant financial centre.
2/

Understand that the agreement requires US banks to adhere to EU risk management requirements - something that the UK wanted to avoid due to “sovereignty issues”.
3/

EU concerned with avoiding another financial turbulence like the 2007 global crisis and in maintaining EU banks competing advantage - so the EU-US agreement is considered a key part of this plan.

UK not involved in these discussions.
4/

City new outlets & Reuters now reporting on this.

Effectively ends UKs determining role in EU financial markets as US banks gain regulatory equivalence & market access providing they stick to risk requirements.

In financial terms this is as historic as it gets.
5/

Of course this reflects well on the US-EU relationship under Joe Biden...but be in no doubt...

...these negotiations will have started under Trump.

So while Express & Telegraph were churning out Brexit boost & special relationship stories this was what was really happening.
6/

First media reporting coming through now:

reuters.com/article/eu-usa…
7/

Understand EU strategy here was part of a 3 Pilar approach:

1. EU banking liquidity & competition
2. Best practice risk management
3. Seriously cutting down on tax haven use

Brexit ironically may have helped accelerate this process as dominant player UK no longer involved.
8/
Now official:

"EU Commission today adopted an equivalence decision determining the SEC regime is equivalent to EU rules"...to obtain this "a 3rd country regime has to fulfil conditions laid down in the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR)".
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

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More from @nicktolhurst

21 Jan
It took me years in academia to realise that many “average Universities” are often actually better than elite Unis.

Elite unis business model is, in many subjects, effectively a “CV branding” process for a specific minority of intelligent children of highly privileged top 5%.
2/

It’s why you see a far greater focus on humanities among this particular cohort at elite unis than elsewhere. It’s also why states which have this elite uni model - US & UK - rely on foreign students in sciences at elite unis than elsewhere.
3/

I can’t be the only academic to notice that at the average uni where I am the privileged students all seem to be ahead of the rest of the class in the 1st year but regress to the mean by the end.
Read 7 tweets
20 Jan
As I understand it the actions of both West Bromwich Albion & West Ham regarding the Snodgrass *should* result in both a fine & points deduction for each team.

It is essentially colluding on team selection to the detriment of others and thus comes under match fixing regulations.
2/

Legally the only get out I can see is if Sam Alladyce claims to have got it wrong and the boards of both clubs back him up.

This will of course be views as obviously a lie but could be enough.

Problem is West Ham won which could enable other clubs to sue.
3/

Effectively a club below West Ham could argue West Ham offered a “bribe” for West Brom to field a weakened team as part of a transfer deal.

As such West Ham, at the very least, should forfeit the 3 points.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jan
Welsh political landscape now starting to resemble Scotland more than England.

Rise of @Plaid_Cymru means that Wales now a 3 way split with once strong liberal vote drifting below the Greens.

As I’ve long advocated, due to this Wales is likely to be THE electoral key to 2024.
2/

The number of Tory held marginals where the combined opposition vote vastly outweighs the Conservative one is both huge given Wales relative size - and easy fruit for an even relatively discreet electoral alliance.
3/

However the conservative vote in Wales is likely to hold up due to the higher number of English - often retired - voters compared with Scotland.

Without an electoral pact a large number of seats would essentially be won by English voters voting for an English centered party.
Read 4 tweets
17 Jan
2 weeks into Brexit..

..and one of its chief architects decides to leave Britain.

Douglas Carswell, former Tory & at one time only UKIP MP, has decided to forgo the delight of seeing the glorious Brexit era he helped usher in..

..he’s moved to Mississippi in the US Deep South.
2/

For disappointed “Carswell fans” don’t worry!

..you can still catch up with the latest Carswell news via the Mississippi Centre for Public Policy - a right wing lobby organisation that Douglas now heads.
3/

The Mississippi Center supports the “privatization of medical services around the world”, which seems a little strange as Carswell...

...did of course champion the £350 million a week extra Govt spending on NHS “Brexit bonus”.

Still I’m sure that’s all a misunderstanding!
Read 5 tweets
17 Jan
If you are still declaring „how could leave voters have been so stupid?” – you are not just part of the problem – you don’t understand your own country.

Brexit & the survival of the English gentleman.

- A Thread –
2/
Imagine for a moment you’re NOT the type of person that watches Newsnight, regularly reads a newspaper or went to Uni. Imagine you’re a busy person with family.

That is, imagine you're in the majority of the population.
& the governing party offer a referendum with 2 choices.
3/

To the average person why would a govt run by a party thats largely ruled the country since a century offer a choice btwn 2 options if one was stupid, self-harming nonsense?

This doesn’t seem a big point point – but its utterly central to Brexit..& one remainers often miss.
Read 12 tweets
16 Jan
+UPDATE+

The UK Govt plans to raise money from hauliers by taxing them £50 an hour as they park at the govt's 'inland border facilities" while waiting for Brexit customs checks.
2/

Number of media sources - including the Telegraph's Alan Tovey - now confirming the UK Govt's plans to extract money from hauliers as they are forcibly delayed waiting for Brexit customs checks.
3/

There's another issue in that the Kent Access permit - "The Kermit" - was originally set for 24 hours...

...if trade does go back to pre COVID levels then the queue of hauliers will automatically mean drivers going over the 24 hour limit & facing further fines (or "taxes").
Read 6 tweets

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