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Oliver Geden Profile picture
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27 Jan, 6 tweets, 4 min read
A crucial aspect still unclear in Biden administration's #climate policy plan. Does "net-zero economy by 2050" cover all greenhouse gases (like in EU) or only CO2 (like US 2035 target for power sector)?
Net-zero GHG is much more ambitious than net-zero CO2
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Net zero GHG is much harder to achieve than net zero CO2. In global scenarios, it takes 10-20 years longer
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R…
Main reason is that non-CO2 emissions like nitrous oxide (N20) and methane (CH4) are much harder or impossible to eliminate, so they need to be counterbalanced by CO2 removal, which takes longer.
Below global pathways. For countries, it depends on their specific emissions profile
I'm not sure what the (modelled) difference for net-zero CO2 vs net-zero GHG would look like (in years). But I'm sure @JesseJenkins, project lead for the excellent 'Net Zero America' study has an answer, or at least an educated guess
princeton.edu/news/2020/12/1…
If you need a brief explainer on net-zero CO2 vs. net-zero GHG (or "carbon neutrality" vs. "climate neutrality"), take this excellent 'Bloomberg Green' piece by @AkshatRathi bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Full Biden executive order text now released (HT @bradplumer). It sounds like net zero GHGs would be needed globally by 2050 or earlier. This is much more ambitious than what #IPCC #SR15 says.
Bold move, or misunderstanding the science?
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

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More from @Oliver_Geden

Oliver Geden Profile picture
22 Oct 20
Major step forward for German #climate debate today, with study from @Prognos_AG, @oekoinstitut & @Wupperinst, The first report on net zero GHGs based on sound modelling
A quick look at Carbon Dioxide Removal
agora-energiewende.de/en/press/news-…
@AgoraEW, @agoraverkehr @StiftungKlima
[1/n]
Study assumes 95% conventional mitigation, making it one of the more ambitious for industrialized countries (CCC for UK & COM for EU: ~90%, see swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R…)
Residual emissions mainly from agriculture & industry, aviation already at zero
agora-energiewende.de/en/press/news-…
[2/n]
Carbon Dioxide Removal is slightly higher than residual emissions (64 vs, 62 Mt), mainly consisting of Bioenergy with CCS (mostly in industry, not in power sector) and Direct Air Capture with CO2 storage
Scenario does not rely on LULUCF sink
agora-energiewende.de/en/press/news-…
[3/n]
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
5 Oct 20
Good that Fridays for Future activists start dealing more and more with the nitty-gritty details of EU #climate policymaking. But with several factual errors and questionable claims in this article, they are risking their credibility.
A short thread [1/n] #EUClimateLaw
You can of course criticize EU #climate policy for not being ambitious enough, but claiming that "the EU is cheating with numbers" needs to be backed up with very strong arguments.
medium.com/@GretaThunberg…
[2/n] #EUClimateLaw
Let's start with FFF authors' core argument that EU is cheating because the 55% are counted from 1990 onwards not from 2018
The EU has never claimed otherwise. 1990 has always been the base year for EU headline #climate targets (as for many others in #UNFCCC)
[3/n] #EUClimateLaw
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
23 Sep 20
Certainly a major step forward that China now aims to achieve 'carbon neutrality' by 2060, but it can't be directly compared to EU's and UK's targets for 'climate neutrality' by 2050.
Net zero GHG harder to achieve than net zero CO2, takes 10-20 yrs more
bbc.com/news/science-e…
The main reason is that non-CO2 emissions like nitrous oxide (N20) and methane (CH4) are much harder or impossible to mitigate, so they'll need to be offset by CO2 removal, which takes longer. Below global pathways. For countries, it depends on their specific emissions profile
Confusion around net-zero CO2 & net-zero GHG is widespread (see thread below)
Rule of thumb: whenever you hear 'net zero', ask "CO2 or GHG"? If only CO2, then add 10-20 years if you compare to EU or UK
Usually, national climate targets are in GHG, not CO2

Read 6 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
19 Sep 20
A bit disturbing that #showyourbudgets contributes to ongoing confusion abt net-zero targets
Net zero CO2 ≠ net zero GHG ('climate neutral'), the latter reached 10-20 yrs later in scenarios due to harder-to-abate non-CO2, offset by CDR
National targets usually set in GHG not CO2
As you can see in global #IPCC pathways, most of the residual emissions at the time of net-zero (and later) are non-CO2, mainly methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R… Image
The same applies to the European Union's emissions trajectory towards net zero.
Residual emissions are to a large extent non-CO2 from agriculture
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R… Image
Read 8 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
17 Sep 20
EU #Climate Target Plan 2030 and accompanying impact assessment now out
ec.europa.eu/clima/policies… Image
Scanning for removals-related issues in #EU2030 impact assessment...
This - creating an AFOLU pillar (LULUCF + agricultural non-CO2 emissions) - seems a sensible approach. Could help to clearly distinguish roles of ecosystem-based & technological CO2 removal in EU #climate policy Image
Why suddenly all the talk about non-CO2 from agriculture? That's because these are projected to form the largest bloc of remaining ('residual') emissions in 2050 (if everything else - in power, transport, industry sectors - works out as planned) Image
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
14 Sep 20
Leaked #EU2030 #climate target plan indicates that @EU_Commission wants to fully integrate LULUCF into target accounting and enhance land-use and forestry sink t by 2030.
A sensible step, but it gives EU ~5 percentage points on the 2030 balance sheet without additional action Image
We anticipated this move already in our SWP Research Paper "Unconventional Mitigation: Carbon Dioxide Removal as a New Approach in EU Climate Policy"
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R… Image
background info: It's a little known fact that LULUCF emissions and removals are measured/accounted and reported, but not (fully) included in overall EU target achievment calculations
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R… Image
Read 5 tweets

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