The biggest threat to #crypto's current bull market in not crypto petering out, but another destabilization in the macro markets, maybe led by cracks in the mania of US equities:
I, too, want to believe in December 2021 being the top of this #crypto bull, just as December was the top in 2013 and 2017.
But when people get too comfortable in patterns is when those patterns change. History doesn't repeat, it rhymes.
And I can't help but wonder if the rhyme to watch here is US equities participants getting too drunk on their own punch.

There are people who 100% believe "stonks only go up." Once there's no more questioning is when we're primed to fall.
If equities keep going all year, we see $100K+ $BTC and $ETH on fire. But if equities go into free fall, watch out.
Don't color me bearish, but also don't think of me as blindly euphoric about the state of the global markets and the world.
Lastly, while I'd expect #crypto to be dragged down over the short-to-medium term in the case of another "macro crash," over the long-term we'd see a strengthening of its uses and fundamentals amidst the chaos, setting up for a glorious bull in the future.

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More from @cburniske

26 Jan
Each crypto network represents a web of people and machines, contributing their capital and labor.
You see people use Metcalfe's law here as an approximation of value, and it's directionally correct.
The narratives, then, are the things that pull the capital and labor into a network's orbit.

And then that capital and labor goes to work for the network and its service(s), pushing its rise amidst the chaos of global markets.
Read 7 tweets
25 Jan
Those expecting $ETH to bump its head against $BTC, instead watch as $ETHBTC pushes for blue skies.

If this continues, risk will go full-on.
Getting deja vu from March 2017, when all energy shifted from $BTC (ETF at the time) to $ETH.

That’s the far left yellow mark, with the right yellow mark Jan 2021.

When $ETH decides to move against $BTC in a month, it really moves 👀
And for those asking what I mean by $ETHBTC leading risk appetite in crypto, if $ETH is able to put in gains against $BTC, then every other coin believes it can do the same:
Read 4 tweets
22 Jan
I've never been so assured of #crypto's eventual pervasiveness; I've also never been so worried about the odds, and ramifications, of us mucking it up.
Classic human patterns, such as those in power prioritizing themselves above all else, will continue to invade #crypto.
As we build this new infrastructure we have to constantly ask what we're valuing, who we're empowering, and why.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
1/ The euphoria is intoxicating, but #crypto is in need of a pullback and consolidation if $BTC wants to reach into the $100Ks and $ETH into the mid-to-high thousands.
2/ That doesn't mean this #crypto bull market would be over, but rather a period to recharge for another wave.
3/ A useful analogy here is #crypto's bull markets are composed of a set of waves.

In the ocean, a big set can have 3-10 distinct waves that the pack tries to catch.
Read 13 tweets
3 Jan
While institutions are increasingly discussing $ETH (what, why, how), they’re not FOMO’ing into it the way they are into $BTC right now.
There are many reasons for this — compared to $BTC, $ETH is younger, takes more time to grok, and constantly has to correct propaganda from #bitcoin maxis.
There’s still a lot of reputation upside for institutions that “get” $ETH early (still a pioneer here)—

—whereas $BTC is quickly becoming a consensus macro trade (now borderline a follower).
Read 6 tweets
27 Dec 20
For most people, the leap from “no coin” to #bitcoin, is much harder than the leap from owning $BTC to also owning $ETH and beyond.
Once the crypto infrastructure is set up and trusted, the human itch to explore is incessant for most.
Those of us who are considered OGs, have too much context to see #crypto the way a new entrant does.
Read 6 tweets

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