1. Today's must read is from my friend @SykesCharlie at @BulwarkOnline arguing 1 of the MOST IMP points of Trump's/The GOP's attempt to overthrow Biden's legal & totally free & fair election.
Trying to get people to understand that unless we somehow push @LeaderMcConnell now,
2. we are facing the distinct possibility of a repeat of this scenario in 2024- a GOP denying or refusing to certify a legal election- but this time all the @GaSecofStates, @C_C_Krebs, @dougduceys, @RepLizCheney @BrianKempGAs have been purged or brought to heel. There are only 2
3. things we can do to decrease the danger. 1: avoid losing control of the House AND Senate (which I am putting my full time, attention, brain, life to against the Midterm Effect- the most powerful & enduring pattern in poli sci). 2. a full court press RIGHT NOW that supports &
4. sets into motion an "establishment revolt" within the GOP where they FINALLY make a stand to take back their own party. They can do it if they'd accept short term electoral pain. They CAN DO IT if they thought it through & developed a strategy (I could help @SykesCharlie!)
5. But, unfortunately, there is little reason to hope that this is going to happen. Which, for @LeaderMcConnell's purpose, is likely to wipe away his entire legacy (the Courts) & render that achievement pointless. Something to consider Mitch!
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2. disaffected conservative whites in the South, who were fleeing the Democratic Party in droves over civil rights- ending the New Deal Coalition which had allowed Ds to domination Congress for 40 years, the GOP understood they could fast-track political power. The trade off was
3. adapting Atwater's "Southern Strategy" & opening their arms to "quiet" racism. Southern whites knew they could no longer be overtly racist, but were appeased by Rep pols who, via dog whistle politics indicated or signaled to them that their "dominance" would be maintained.
If I can rouse up 10K I'm going to poll MTG's district to show that she isn't all that more radical than the Republicans she represents there & see how popular she still is
I want to add on to this thread- I am a top notch pollster. I did the polling for the Wason Center for 4 years, and nailed all 4 election cycles, including the 2017 cycle that others missed (bc anticipated the surge) and our 2016 VA poll was spot on. This will be quality shit.
Update, launched late on a Friday night & we are 1/10 of the way already. We might really be able to do this! Even if you can't donate, if you can send a tweet out w a pitch, that's huge, esp if you are a blue check.
Again, I'm a good pollster, this will be quality work
1. Here's a handy @pewresearch graphic w overall turnout by state in 2020, but also, each state's improvement in turnout over 2016. In places where Ds took control (CA, CO, VA, WA) they've been (small l) liberalizing voting access & you really see the + effect its having on
2. participation. For years political scientists have wondered if competition was more imp than institutional design or vice versa & its really looking like institutions MATTER which makes the systematic targeting of voting institutions to suppress turnout by the GOP in states
3. where they have the power to do so (and as my friend @marceelias will tell you & talk about when he's on the show) they're coming HARD after GA's system now. And this data tells me that if they're successful in chipping away at the institutions, it will matter. Fun fact, not
1. Oh yes. Silencing Trump is absolutely important. But it doesn't change the basic driver that brought the GOP to Trump in the 1st place- the Frankenstein they built- the right wing media ecosystem- that is a monster they lost control of back in the late 2000s. If establishment
2. Rs like @LeaderMcConnell have any true interest in saving their party, their legacies (and you have to think, McConnell in particular is bc what he achieved w the Courts is remarkable, but ONLY if American democracy itself survives. If the constitutional order collapses, &
3. right now, if @OldBullTV put a betting market on "American democracy is still functioning, intact 6 yrs from now" I'd peg that at 50/50. And no, I'm not being hyperbolic. AND the 2022 cycle will determine whether those odds improve or get markedly worse. If the GOP takes
2. If you need evidence, go look at how narrow this special election in VA state legislative was-250 votes. Or the fact that w an incumbent prez literally murdering 100K Americans a MONTH, Ds LOST House seats. Do you really want to leave electioneering strategy up to the same
3. strategies run in 2020? Well, guess what? Unless YOU step up right here, and right now and add ME to the game, that's the strategy coming to 2022 folks. If you want D electioneering to change- you're going to have to help change it! I am literally terrified of fundraising. It
1. As per @SteveKornacki's comments on prez honeymoons. Yes, Trump's was unusually low BUT he also alone made NO OVERTURES to anyone other than base Republicans, something no other incoming prez has EVER done coming in. So even w polarization, you are seeing that effect in his %.
2. It's an unusual strategy, one he used in both campaigns & throughout his presidency. He lost reelection- its a DUMB approach but I also think its imp to point out that at least within the Rep coalition, including Indies that lean R, it worked too well. He had to do almost
3. nothing "centrist" to hold onto the "centrist" support of the R coalition & that part of the GOP remains loyal to him to this day even after he led an insurrection against the Capitol & tried to seize permanent power- with considerable help from other elected Rs. This is the