1. Here's a handy @pewresearch graphic w overall turnout by state in 2020, but also, each state's improvement in turnout over 2016. In places where Ds took control (CA, CO, VA, WA) they've been (small l) liberalizing voting access & you really see the + effect its having on
2. participation. For years political scientists have wondered if competition was more imp than institutional design or vice versa & its really looking like institutions MATTER which makes the systematic targeting of voting institutions to suppress turnout by the GOP in states
3. where they have the power to do so (and as my friend @marceelias will tell you & talk about when he's on the show) they're coming HARD after GA's system now. And this data tells me that if they're successful in chipping away at the institutions, it will matter. Fun fact, not
4. only is WA St. using institutional reforms but their state party chair is a big believer in the theories I espouse about messaging & turnout & deployed some of that stuff this cycle to great success. Will be following up on this stuff, replicating it, & exporting it elsewhere
5. as part of @StrikePac's portfolio. They were expecting MASSIVE partisan turnout there & I don't know what the final numbers ended up being, but its def a great guide for other states. @DemocracyDocket is going to be critical.
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I want to let you know when I made the decision to launch @StrikePac & directly get into electioneering I realized I wasn't going to continue issuing "race ratings" & "forecasts" each cycle- OBV that's a conflict of interest!
The hostility & sexism of
2. that world, I have to be honest, makes it very easy to walk away- the misogyny in the top tier of the election analysis community outside of @Center4Politics folks who are awesome & also more accurate than anyone else is intolerable. I'll still analyze politics, political
3. events, issue commentary, write articles, run the pod, go on TV, and generally succeed in ways that drive those men nuts but no, I won't be putting out ratings or "forecasts" anymore. Now, lots of people are asking me "what's going to happen in 2022?" The Midterm Effect, the
2. disaffected conservative whites in the South, who were fleeing the Democratic Party in droves over civil rights- ending the New Deal Coalition which had allowed Ds to domination Congress for 40 years, the GOP understood they could fast-track political power. The trade off was
3. adapting Atwater's "Southern Strategy" & opening their arms to "quiet" racism. Southern whites knew they could no longer be overtly racist, but were appeased by Rep pols who, via dog whistle politics indicated or signaled to them that their "dominance" would be maintained.
If I can rouse up 10K I'm going to poll MTG's district to show that she isn't all that more radical than the Republicans she represents there & see how popular she still is
I want to add on to this thread- I am a top notch pollster. I did the polling for the Wason Center for 4 years, and nailed all 4 election cycles, including the 2017 cycle that others missed (bc anticipated the surge) and our 2016 VA poll was spot on. This will be quality shit.
Update, launched late on a Friday night & we are 1/10 of the way already. We might really be able to do this! Even if you can't donate, if you can send a tweet out w a pitch, that's huge, esp if you are a blue check.
Again, I'm a good pollster, this will be quality work
1. Today's must read is from my friend @SykesCharlie at @BulwarkOnline arguing 1 of the MOST IMP points of Trump's/The GOP's attempt to overthrow Biden's legal & totally free & fair election.
Trying to get people to understand that unless we somehow push @LeaderMcConnell now,
2. we are facing the distinct possibility of a repeat of this scenario in 2024- a GOP denying or refusing to certify a legal election- but this time all the @GaSecofStates, @C_C_Krebs, @dougduceys, @RepLizCheney @BrianKempGAs have been purged or brought to heel. There are only 2
3. things we can do to decrease the danger. 1: avoid losing control of the House AND Senate (which I am putting my full time, attention, brain, life to against the Midterm Effect- the most powerful & enduring pattern in poli sci). 2. a full court press RIGHT NOW that supports &
1. Oh yes. Silencing Trump is absolutely important. But it doesn't change the basic driver that brought the GOP to Trump in the 1st place- the Frankenstein they built- the right wing media ecosystem- that is a monster they lost control of back in the late 2000s. If establishment
2. Rs like @LeaderMcConnell have any true interest in saving their party, their legacies (and you have to think, McConnell in particular is bc what he achieved w the Courts is remarkable, but ONLY if American democracy itself survives. If the constitutional order collapses, &
3. right now, if @OldBullTV put a betting market on "American democracy is still functioning, intact 6 yrs from now" I'd peg that at 50/50. And no, I'm not being hyperbolic. AND the 2022 cycle will determine whether those odds improve or get markedly worse. If the GOP takes
2. If you need evidence, go look at how narrow this special election in VA state legislative was-250 votes. Or the fact that w an incumbent prez literally murdering 100K Americans a MONTH, Ds LOST House seats. Do you really want to leave electioneering strategy up to the same
3. strategies run in 2020? Well, guess what? Unless YOU step up right here, and right now and add ME to the game, that's the strategy coming to 2022 folks. If you want D electioneering to change- you're going to have to help change it! I am literally terrified of fundraising. It