Share this page!

Trinh Profile picture
Twitter logo
29 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
As no one is interested in Asian economics today I'll just sit back & enjoy the show.

We have a raging pandemic & everyone, including the White House is on this case? Very very 2021.

🍿🍿🍿

Read my thread on millennials. Class warfare is the theme of our decade.
Btw, retail investors are gaining steam not just in the US but also in Asia. Why? Well, imagine sitting at home, being made unemployed by Covid-19 government policy, & seeing that people are getting richer buying stocks that seem to have 1-way up, wut do u do?

Get involved!πŸ€—πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­
Policy rate in Thailand is 0.5% (same in Korea where the same phenomenon is happening). Ordinary people are looking around seeing economies devastated but equity markets buoyant got the memo & getting super involved. Motivation is warranted to not miss out on asset inflation but.
How did we get here? Our monetary system. By suppressing volatility via massive injection of liquidity, we'll have to contend with hyper volatile events that will inevitably come. Can't believe that the world pushing on a string (thin one of low rates) can be sustainably stable?

β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
γ€€

Keep Current with Trinh

Trinh Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
25 Jan
Let's track India vaccination efforts (redo as older tweets had many errors):
*It has delivered 1.6 million doses (need 2 per person) in the past 9 days
*Goal is 300 millions by August 2021 or slightly above 20% of total population

India & Indonesia amongst the earliest to start
India is the best emerging market in Asia in term of vaccine acquisition as a share of total population. Many haven't acquired enough.

For India, even w/ enough, its goal is only slightly above 20% by Q3 2021 & it also has one of the earlier starts in Asia.
This is the distribution schedule (X axis) & many start in Jan or Feb but don't let the start date fool u, you can start, but finishing depends on available doses (acquisition key) & also goal of pace of distribution.

No Asian economy has a goal to finish 100% by end 2021.
Read 9 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
22 Jan
Janet Yellen. What do u think of her? Kept the bubble going longer (barely raised rates) & now head of the treasury. Either way, we are here: fortunes of the fortunate rise higher every day while the poor stuck in a rut, waiting for handouts/claims as basics rise higher & higher
Janet Yellen: 1st woman to be head of the Fed, a labor economist so cared more about unemployment, meaning a πŸ•ŠοΈ& kept rates low to "promote" labor.

She believes in smoothing the business cycle (Keynesian). Question is, to what end?

Unemployment did drop but inequality higher.
As someone who was head of the Fed to believe that interest rates - persistently low rates through influencing price & quantity of $ - helps labor requires a lot of trickle down effect. But assets like housing, an essential, became more expensive faster than wage growth. So what?
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
21 Jan
Well done @lienh : The story of Vietnam can be a story of many EM (it's not just about Covid-19), but that once you have walked down the wrong path, it's never too late to make a U-turn.

Knew Lien when Vietnam was the worst story in EM circa 2011-2012 & its choices led it here.
Vietnam is behind its own schedule: Was supposed to be an industrialized nation by 2020 but then mismanagement of liquidity/banking system/corruption wasted about a decade of development as it took 1 step forward several steps backward. But the key was that it learned its lessons
If u want to harvest, plant a tree 10 years ago. If u want to harvest in 10 years, plant now. Meaning, people, company, and countries don't become who they are overnight - takes the will to change & the consistent & persistent actions to get there, esp when u start at the bottom.
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
21 Jan
Good morning! We have a new president πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ, some are sad, some are happy but the good news is that no matter who you have, they can't stick around for too long in the White House.

Markets rallied over night & so far Asian data positive w/ Korea exports (1st to report for Jan) UP!
Exports rose 10.6%YoY while imports less impressive at 1.5% (domestic demand is a huge problem in South Korea, especially consumption). And it's not a base effect as the average day is good too!

Cars up +16%, oil down -46%
Shipment to China & US +19% & EU +16% but Japan -1.1% πŸ‡°πŸ‡·
The fact that the reflation trade is priced in now but not likely to happen until H2 2021, economic data shows that demand for tech/digital related products are bolstering economies best positioned to gain.

You know who rocks Asia tech? South Korea πŸ’₯πŸ‡°πŸ‡·πŸ€—πŸ’ƒπŸ»
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
20 Jan
Thanks to everyone that helped (we're still in the dark for most of employment in India, which is informal). Speaking of which, one of the distressing news out of India is its trade policy. Raised import duties in 2020 & more to come! What about exports?

reuters.com/article/india-…
India has the lowest exports as a share of GDP in Asia (exports in nominal value is not that much higher than Vietnam a country that is 1/10th its size) & meanwhile it raised imports for so many items + adding more soon in the budget according to Reuters!

reuters.com/article/india-…
Rumors that India would lower personal income tax but that only impacts formal employment (most labor market is informal). By raising import duties, it is raising taxes indirect & that is a very regressive form of taxation as it taxes the poor more.

indiatoday.in/business/story…
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
19 Jan
HSI surpassed the KOSPI to be best of Asia today (KOSPI was best of the world until the bubble got deflated by officials ending short selling in March). πŸ’₯

For most of Asia, January has been great. Look at Indonesia!!! Not bad for January!
Good morning! Today is 19 January 2021 & this is where we are for global equities:

Best: Asia! Specifically HSI πŸ‡­πŸ‡° (fueled by mainland buyers)! πŸ’₯πŸ’₯πŸ’₯πŸ€—πŸ˜ Second best, Vietnam (supported by everyone, including retail πŸ‡»πŸ‡³!3rd best, Taiwan!

Vietnam grew 2.9% in 2020! Best in Asia!
Losers in USD: Argentina πŸ˜¬πŸ‡¦πŸ‡·, Korean tech (KOSDAQ) & Malaysia πŸ‡²πŸ‡Ύ & US tech.

So there you go: THE GREAT ROTATION Asia macro styleπŸ€—.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @Trinhnomics has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @Trinhnomics!

Read all threads by @Trinhnomics