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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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29 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Good news! Assam reaches “Winning” status, now all States of Northeast India have reached “Winning” status with less than 20 cases per day.

Total cases per day in the NE region is 42! (population is 45M)

Many congratulations!
8 states of Northeast India and cases per day are:

Arunachal Pradesh: 1
Assam: 17
Manipur: 12
Meghalaya: 3
Mizoram: 3
Nagaland: 2
Sikkim: 3
Tripura: 1
There are currently 28 countries in the world with either zero cases or very low cases, putting them in our “winning” category. Many of which have been steady for months.
Also, within the last month, nearly 20 countries moved from red to yellow, indicating significant declines in the number of daily cases.
More good news: While US remains in very difficult condition, a few hard-hit states report significant improvement. Four have fewer than 20% of their peak: ND, MN, WY, and SD.

Progress!

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

"Are you tired of COVID?

"I fucking am.

1/
via @TheTyee thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"And contrary to what our politicians say, there is only one way to deal with a rapidly mutating virus that demonstrates the real power of exponential growth: Go hard. Act early. And go to zero.

2/
"Last January, one strain of this novel virus began its assured global conquest, and since then our leaders have hardly learned a goddamn thing.

"So yes, I am angry, and I will not disguise my frustration with comfortable or polite language.

3/
Read 51 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
As many countries..struggle with a third wave..all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic..a proposal being widely discussed in Germany..is a “No-COVID strategy”

The case for No-COVID thelancet.com/journals/lance…
"There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones. First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero. Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test,

2/
.trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions. Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically. Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Best to read, share👇

"All countries should pursue a Covid-19 elimination strategy: here are 16 reasons why

"Countries trying to eliminate the virus have been far more successful and economically better off than those that have tried to suppress it

1/
theguardian.com/world/commenti…
"The past year of Covid-19 has taught us that it is the behaviour of governments, more than the behaviour of the virus or individuals, that shapes countries’ experience of the crisis. Talking about pandemic waves has given the virus far too much agency:

2/
"until quite recently the apparent waves of infection were driven by government action and inaction. It is only now with the emergence of more infectious variants that it might be appropriate to talk about a true second wave.

3/
Read 28 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Yesterday New Zealand reported 4 covid cases - all imported and quarantined.

Amazingly, they have only 3 reported covid deaths since June 2020. Well done!

Elimination works!
Last Sunday, a Covid-19 case began symptoms in Northland, NZ. All identified close contacts have returned negative test results thus far.

Recently, the Lowy Institute ranked NZ as the top performing country for handling covid.

interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid…
Similarly, Australia reports zero new cases of local transmission in the last week and a half.

The recent outbreak in New South Wales appears to have been contained. Congratulations again!
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Travel restrictions have been one of the most effective pandemic responses — if they’re strict.

One of the biggest lessons of the pandemic has been the success of travel restrictions at reducing its spread.

1/
umeradio.com/post/how-trave…
And this is a moment when they have the potential to be particularly effective in the U.S., given the emergence of even more dangerous coronavirus variants in other countries.

2/
"President Biden seems to realize this, and has reinstated some travel restrictions that President Donald Trump lifted just before leaving office.

It’s not yet clear whether Biden will impose the kind of strict rules that have worked best elsewhere.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
26 Jan
While Finland experiences a recent surge, Denmark, Norway, Iceland all report significant reductions in daily cases. Iceland near zero, Norway, Finland could be there soon. Push hard to get to Zero soon.
Sweden continues to distance themselves from their Nordic neighbors with much higher confirmed Covid deaths per million:

Sweden: 1,090
Denmark: 342
Finland: 116
Norway: 100
Iceland: 85
Portugal continues to surge. Currently averaging 14,000 new cases/day and 250 deaths.

Current lockdown began January 15th, schools were closed last Friday. The closing of schools should help in a week. Going all out is the right way.
Read 5 tweets

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