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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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30 Jan, 8 tweets, 3 min read
As many countries..struggle with a third wave..all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic..a proposal being widely discussed in Germany..is a “No-COVID strategy”

The case for No-COVID thelancet.com/journals/lance…
"There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones. First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero. Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test,

2/
.trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions. Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically. Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society.

3/
"Every infection is one too many. The German proposal recommends a regional focus—when the incidence of infection in an area falls to zero, the region should be declared a green zone.

4/
"The eventual aim would be to expand and fuse green zones across Germany. This strategy could also be implemented across Europe if governments could agree to a common No-COVID goal.

5/
#NoCovid #ZeroCovid #COVIDzero
The Case for No-COVID
Editorial by Richard Horton, Editor of Lancet (attached)
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…

Strategy document by German scientists
researchgate.net/publication/34…
"..After more than 2 million deaths worldwide, perhaps there is an emerging agreement that the elimination of this coronavirus is not only necessary but also achievable."

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
31 Jan
UK reports progress:

Yesterday they reported 29,145 cases, down to ½ of peak! Daily deaths are still near peak, consistent with higher fatality rate for UK B117 variant, but are beginning to decline. ImageImage
Portugal continues rapid increase of both cases and deaths. Yesterday reported 13,200 new cases and 278 deaths.

Per capita case rates are the highest in the world. ImageImage
Good news in Ireland! Ireland has shown that cases can be turned around quickly if strong precautions are put into place. Now almost ⅕ of peak. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

"Are you tired of COVID?

"I fucking am.

1/
via @TheTyee thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"And contrary to what our politicians say, there is only one way to deal with a rapidly mutating virus that demonstrates the real power of exponential growth: Go hard. Act early. And go to zero.

2/
"Last January, one strain of this novel virus began its assured global conquest, and since then our leaders have hardly learned a goddamn thing.

"So yes, I am angry, and I will not disguise my frustration with comfortable or polite language.

3/
Read 51 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Jan
Good news! Assam reaches “Winning” status, now all States of Northeast India have reached “Winning” status with less than 20 cases per day.

Total cases per day in the NE region is 42! (population is 45M)

Many congratulations!
8 states of Northeast India and cases per day are:

Arunachal Pradesh: 1
Assam: 17
Manipur: 12
Meghalaya: 3
Mizoram: 3
Nagaland: 2
Sikkim: 3
Tripura: 1
There are currently 28 countries in the world with either zero cases or very low cases, putting them in our “winning” category. Many of which have been steady for months.
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Best to read, share👇

"All countries should pursue a Covid-19 elimination strategy: here are 16 reasons why

"Countries trying to eliminate the virus have been far more successful and economically better off than those that have tried to suppress it

1/
theguardian.com/world/commenti…
"The past year of Covid-19 has taught us that it is the behaviour of governments, more than the behaviour of the virus or individuals, that shapes countries’ experience of the crisis. Talking about pandemic waves has given the virus far too much agency:

2/
"until quite recently the apparent waves of infection were driven by government action and inaction. It is only now with the emergence of more infectious variants that it might be appropriate to talk about a true second wave.

3/
Read 28 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Yesterday New Zealand reported 4 covid cases - all imported and quarantined.

Amazingly, they have only 3 reported covid deaths since June 2020. Well done!

Elimination works!
Last Sunday, a Covid-19 case began symptoms in Northland, NZ. All identified close contacts have returned negative test results thus far.

Recently, the Lowy Institute ranked NZ as the top performing country for handling covid.

interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid…
Similarly, Australia reports zero new cases of local transmission in the last week and a half.

The recent outbreak in New South Wales appears to have been contained. Congratulations again!
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Travel restrictions have been one of the most effective pandemic responses — if they’re strict.

One of the biggest lessons of the pandemic has been the success of travel restrictions at reducing its spread.

1/
umeradio.com/post/how-trave…
And this is a moment when they have the potential to be particularly effective in the U.S., given the emergence of even more dangerous coronavirus variants in other countries.

2/
"President Biden seems to realize this, and has reinstated some travel restrictions that President Donald Trump lifted just before leaving office.

It’s not yet clear whether Biden will impose the kind of strict rules that have worked best elsewhere.

3/
Read 14 tweets

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