US COVID cases are going down, mostly because the Christmas peak is over. Will it keep down, or will there be another peak?
If we follow the B117 strain, the race with vaccines will be tight. 🧵
It looks like in the US, the B117 strain might represent close to 2% of all cases
If we follow the B117 strain, the race with vaccines will be tight. 🧵
It looks like in the US, the B117 strain might represent close to 2% of all cases
If we follow Denmark, it took them ~2-3 weeks to go from there to ~7-8%
In England, it took ~7 more weeks to represent nearly all cases. The heat could be felt within ~4 weeks.
That means the US will see an increasing transmission rate to 60% more in the next 6-10 weeks.
The US has vaccinated ~25M people. At this pace, in 6-10 weeks it will have vaccinated 70-100M people, reducing the transmission rate maybe by 20-40%.
It seems like the critical factor will be how much people lower their guard in the next few weeks and how fast we can get the vaccine out.
Our fate is in our hands.
Our fate is in our hands.
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