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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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31 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
UK reports progress:

Yesterday they reported 29,145 cases, down to ½ of peak! Daily deaths are still near peak, consistent with higher fatality rate for UK B117 variant, but are beginning to decline.
Portugal continues rapid increase of both cases and deaths. Yesterday reported 13,200 new cases and 278 deaths.

Per capita case rates are the highest in the world.
Good news in Ireland! Ireland has shown that cases can be turned around quickly if strong precautions are put into place. Now almost ⅕ of peak.
US continues slow decline in new cases, primarily due to California. However, many regions in California are lifting restrictions which were responsible for the success. Makes no sense.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Feb
One Case, Total Lockdown: Australia’s Lessons for a Pandemic World

"The country’s short, sharp responses have repeatedly subdued the virus and allowed a return to near normalcy. Now its model is being applied to Perth, its fourth-largest city.

1/
nytimes.com/2021/02/01/wor…
"One case. One young security guard at a quarantine hotel who tested positive for the coronavirus and experienced minor symptoms.

"That was all it took for Perth, Australia’s fourth-largest city, to snap into a complete lockdown on Sunday.

2/
"One case and now two million people are staying home for at least the next five days. One case and now the top state leader, Mark McGowan, who is facing an election next month, is calling on his constituents to sacrifice for each other and the nation.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Feb
Lithuania’s containment efforts are paying off. Yesterday they reported 858 new cases, down from a peak of nearly 3,000.

After their first outbreak, they attempted to keep cases low rather than going for zero. Let’s hope they go for zero to open safely. ImageImage
Guam and the US Virgin Islands have both reported low case rates recently, both less than 10 per day. In total, the two regions have reported 154 covid deaths. Image
Alaska progress:
Daily cases down almost to ⅕ peak
Hospitalizations down to ¼ peak

Most in Anchorage, many regions very close to zero. A green zone exit strategy, like Australia, would treat them well. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Catastrophe

"Are you tired of COVID?

"I fucking am.

1/
via @TheTyee thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"And contrary to what our politicians say, there is only one way to deal with a rapidly mutating virus that demonstrates the real power of exponential growth: Go hard. Act early. And go to zero.

2/
"Last January, one strain of this novel virus began its assured global conquest, and since then our leaders have hardly learned a goddamn thing.

"So yes, I am angry, and I will not disguise my frustration with comfortable or polite language.

3/
Read 51 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 Jan
As many countries..struggle with a third wave..all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic..a proposal being widely discussed in Germany..is a “No-COVID strategy”

The case for No-COVID thelancet.com/journals/lance…
"There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones. First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero. Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test,

2/
.trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions. Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically. Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Jan
Good news! Assam reaches “Winning” status, now all States of Northeast India have reached “Winning” status with less than 20 cases per day.

Total cases per day in the NE region is 42! (population is 45M)

Many congratulations!
8 states of Northeast India and cases per day are:

Arunachal Pradesh: 1
Assam: 17
Manipur: 12
Meghalaya: 3
Mizoram: 3
Nagaland: 2
Sikkim: 3
Tripura: 1
There are currently 28 countries in the world with either zero cases or very low cases, putting them in our “winning” category. Many of which have been steady for months.
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Jan
Best to read, share👇

"All countries should pursue a Covid-19 elimination strategy: here are 16 reasons why

"Countries trying to eliminate the virus have been far more successful and economically better off than those that have tried to suppress it

1/
theguardian.com/world/commenti…
"The past year of Covid-19 has taught us that it is the behaviour of governments, more than the behaviour of the virus or individuals, that shapes countries’ experience of the crisis. Talking about pandemic waves has given the virus far too much agency:

2/
"until quite recently the apparent waves of infection were driven by government action and inaction. It is only now with the emergence of more infectious variants that it might be appropriate to talk about a true second wave.

3/
Read 28 tweets

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