One Case, Total Lockdown: Australia’s Lessons for a Pandemic World
"The country’s short, sharp responses have repeatedly subdued the virus and allowed a return to near normalcy. Now its model is being applied to Perth, its fourth-largest city.
"One case. One young security guard at a quarantine hotel who tested positive for the coronavirus and experienced minor symptoms.
"That was all it took for Perth, Australia’s fourth-largest city, to snap into a complete lockdown on Sunday.
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"One case and now two million people are staying home for at least the next five days. One case and now the top state leader, Mark McGowan, who is facing an election next month, is calling on his constituents to sacrifice for each other and the nation.
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"This is a very serious situation,” he said on Sunday as he reported the case, the first one the state of Western Australia had found outside quarantine in almost 10 months. “Each and every one of us has to do everything we personally can to stop the spread in the community.”
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"The speed and severity of the response may be unthinkable to people in the United States or Europe, where far larger outbreaks have often been met with half measures. But to Australians, it looked familiar.
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"The lockdown in Perth and the surrounding area followed similar efforts in Brisbane and Sydney, where a handful of infections led to steep ramp-ups in restrictions, a subdued virus and a rapid return to near normalcy.
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"Ask Australians about the approach, and they might just shrug. Instead of loneliness and grief or outcries over impingements on their freedom, they’ve gotten used to a routine of short-term pain for collective gain.
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“We have a way to save lives, open up our economies and avoid all this fear and hassle,” said Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland who developed a multilayered, or “Swiss cheese,” model of pandemic defense that has been widely circulated.
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"Australia is just one of several success stories in the Asia-Pacific. The region’s middle powers, including New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, are essentially getting better at managing the virus while the great powers of the World War II era are getting worse.
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"The center of confidence, if not gravity, continues to shift east, especially as China roars back to life. With successful public health, some argue, comes not just wealth and more stable economies but also national pride and the practical expertise mutating viruses demand.
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.."Europe and the United States seem to prefer, in his words, “the half-baked lockdown.” He said they put too much faith in the vaccines, failing to recognize that their impact on transmission would be glacial, not instant.
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Allan Thompson, an investment banker in Perth, said he was one of many racing back to their houses on Sunday to do their part..
"We think we’re going to get on top of this. We know that good comes from doing the right things for the right amount of time.”
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Lithuania’s containment efforts are paying off. Yesterday they reported 858 new cases, down from a peak of nearly 3,000.
After their first outbreak, they attempted to keep cases low rather than going for zero. Let’s hope they go for zero to open safely.
Guam and the US Virgin Islands have both reported low case rates recently, both less than 10 per day. In total, the two regions have reported 154 covid deaths.
Alaska progress:
Daily cases down almost to ⅕ peak
Hospitalizations down to ¼ peak
Most in Anchorage, many regions very close to zero. A green zone exit strategy, like Australia, would treat them well.
Yesterday they reported 29,145 cases, down to ½ of peak! Daily deaths are still near peak, consistent with higher fatality rate for UK B117 variant, but are beginning to decline.
Portugal continues rapid increase of both cases and deaths. Yesterday reported 13,200 new cases and 278 deaths.
Per capita case rates are the highest in the world.
Good news in Ireland! Ireland has shown that cases can be turned around quickly if strong precautions are put into place. Now almost ⅕ of peak.
"And contrary to what our politicians say, there is only one way to deal with a rapidly mutating virus that demonstrates the real power of exponential growth: Go hard. Act early. And go to zero.
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"Last January, one strain of this novel virus began its assured global conquest, and since then our leaders have hardly learned a goddamn thing.
"So yes, I am angry, and I will not disguise my frustration with comfortable or polite language.
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As many countries..struggle with a third wave..all governments and public health authorities will need to remain open to new ideas for controlling the pandemic..a proposal being widely discussed in Germany..is a “No-COVID strategy”
"There are three elements to their plan, based on the twin objectives of No-COVID and the creation of virus-free green zones. First, a rapid reduction in numbers of infections to zero. Second, avoidance of further virus transmission or reintroduction through rigorous test,
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.trace, and isolate systems, together with local travel restrictions. Third, rapid outbreak management if new cases of COVID-19 occur sporadically. Experience from several east Asian countries shows that complete elimination causes the least harm to society.
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There are currently 28 countries in the world with either zero cases or very low cases, putting them in our “winning” category. Many of which have been steady for months.