Tweet

More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

1 Feb

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1354999951663583239

This issue of income inequality, specifically generational gap of wealth, is global. In South Korea, the youth has faced such a harsh labor market while asset prices such as housing have gone higher, making it hard to start a family (fertility dropped further & lowest in OECD).

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1354999951663583239

Household debt went up in South Korea & some even borrow to invest. Before Covid-19, household debt was amongst the highest in Asia as the young & elderly took out debt to sustain consumption as labor market was weak. The short-selling ban caused many to want to join the rally.

I argue that they need to end the short-selling ban in mid March as intended (already 1 yr long) because it will only lead to more excessive risk taking & can only end in tears. Regulators need to protect retailers from falsely believing that there's no risk in equities.

Read 5 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

29 Jan

https://twitter.com/justinkan/status/1354793937538433035

As no one is interested in Asian economics today I'll just sit back & enjoy the show.

We have a raging pandemic & everyone, including the White House is on this case? Very very 2021.

🍿🍿🍿

Read my thread on millennials. Class warfare is the theme of our decade.

https://twitter.com/justinkan/status/1354793937538433035

Btw, retail investors are gaining steam not just in the US but also in Asia. Why? Well, imagine sitting at home, being made unemployed by Covid-19 government policy, & seeing that people are getting richer buying stocks that seem to have 1-way up, wut do u do?

Get involved!🤗🇹🇭

Policy rate in Thailand is 0.5% (same in Korea where the same phenomenon is happening). Ordinary people are looking around seeing economies devastated but equity markets buoyant got the memo & getting super involved. Motivation is warranted to not miss out on asset inflation but.

Read 4 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

25 Jan

Let's track India vaccination efforts (redo as older tweets had many errors):
*It has delivered 1.6 million doses (need 2 per person) in the past 9 days
*Goal is 300 millions by August 2021 or slightly above 20% of total population

India & Indonesia amongst the earliest to start

India is the best emerging market in Asia in term of vaccine acquisition as a share of total population. Many haven't acquired enough.

For India, even w/ enough, its goal is only slightly above 20% by Q3 2021 & it also has one of the earlier starts in Asia.

This is the distribution schedule (X axis) & many start in Jan or Feb but don't let the start date fool u, you can start, but finishing depends on available doses (acquisition key) & also goal of pace of distribution.

No Asian economy has a goal to finish 100% by end 2021.

Read 9 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

22 Jan

Janet Yellen. What do u think of her? Kept the bubble going longer (barely raised rates) & now head of the treasury. Either way, we are here: fortunes of the fortunate rise higher every day while the poor stuck in a rut, waiting for handouts/claims as basics rise higher & higher

Janet Yellen: 1st woman to be head of the Fed, a labor economist so cared more about unemployment, meaning a 🕊️& kept rates low to "promote" labor.

She believes in smoothing the business cycle (Keynesian). Question is, to what end?

Unemployment did drop but inequality higher.

As someone who was head of the Fed to believe that interest rates - persistently low rates through influencing price & quantity of $ - helps labor requires a lot of trickle down effect. But assets like housing, an essential, became more expensive faster than wage growth. So what?

Read 8 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

21 Jan

@lienh

Well done @lienh : The story of Vietnam can be a story of many EM (it's not just about Covid-19), but that once you have walked down the wrong path, it's never too late to make a U-turn.

Knew Lien when Vietnam was the worst story in EM circa 2011-2012 & its choices led it here.

https://twitter.com/lienh/status/1352073188922990593

Vietnam is behind its own schedule: Was supposed to be an industrialized nation by 2020 but then mismanagement of liquidity/banking system/corruption wasted about a decade of development as it took 1 step forward several steps backward. But the key was that it learned its lessons

If u want to harvest, plant a tree 10 years ago. If u want to harvest in 10 years, plant now. Meaning, people, company, and countries don't become who they are overnight - takes the will to change & the consistent & persistent actions to get there, esp when u start at the bottom.

Read 7 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

21 Jan

Good morning! We have a new president 🇺🇸, some are sad, some are happy but the good news is that no matter who you have, they can't stick around for too long in the White House.

Markets rallied over night & so far Asian data positive w/ Korea exports (1st to report for Jan) UP!

Exports rose 10.6%YoY while imports less impressive at 1.5% (domestic demand is a huge problem in South Korea, especially consumption). And it's not a base effect as the average day is good too!

Cars up +16%, oil down -46%
Shipment to China & US +19% & EU +16% but Japan -1.1% 🇰🇷

The fact that the reflation trade is priced in now but not likely to happen until H2 2021, economic data shows that demand for tech/digital related products are bolstering economies best positioned to gain.

You know who rocks Asia tech? South Korea 💥🇰🇷🤗💃🏻

Read 4 tweets

Share this page!

Trinh

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh

Trinh

Trinh

Trinh

Trinh

Trinh

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?