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David Henig Profile picture
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1 Feb, 6 tweets, 2 min read
The latest industry to notice that a thin EU trade deal means economic losses. And, to repeat (again), the trade barriers going up between UK and EU won't be offset by a similar reduction of barriers elsewhere. This is free trade UK government style, meaning the opposite.
What the UK government can't or won't say - there will be major losers from the new EU trade barriers. That 4% GDP loss, or whatever it may be, will hit real people and real jobs. There will be some winners as well, but more losers.
And as I've noted before, the major irony. A government and cheerleaders who claim to be free trade leaders are actually leading the world in putting in trade barriers. And their opponents, often without such an ideology, are supporting free trade.
Important to hang on to realities in such a looking glass world. I'll get the usual trolls, oh you're just supporting the EU. Nothing to do with the EU as an institution, everything to do with honesty about what is happening in the UK. And the choices made and still to be made.
More long term problems for the UK as a result of barriers to EU trade.
A thread reminder that there may also be opportuities - but only if government is prepared to accept the realities of what is happening to UK trade now.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
Interesting thread end point end point. I hope, and I could be wrong, that the UK government knows that to actually trigger protocol safeguard mechanisms would be incredibly counter-productive in showing a total lack of good faith. I suspect this is more an idle threat.
Obviously the UK government is under pressure from the DUP to renounce the protocol. But that's been true for 15 months. They are under pressure from EU and US not to do so. And that pressure has been more important to date, and probably wil continue to be so.
Then the UK government is under pressure trying to protect the PM who denies an Irish Sea border, while trying to make things better which Michael Gove and team knows means ignoring what the PM says. All together very tricky.
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
UK politicians of all stripes have used the EU as a punchbag / excuse for many years. In that we were true Europeans, other Member States do exactly the same. There is negligible cost. But as non-members there probably is a cost to axting in the same way. Is it still worth it?
One of the reasons I reject the idea the UK was somehow 'not European' - because our behaviour as members was not as different as many claimed. But as others have suggested, you may get a result as non-members by being more pro-EU than members.
UK politics is in a confused state with regard to trade and external relations. Unable to make the (cynical but necessary?) leap to EU as friends, a one-way special relationship, no wonder we seek solace on the other side of the world. Old habits, but distance...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
We have two new @ECIPE blogs for you today on the UK. From me on the linkage between the UK government not listening seriously to business, and their lack of ambition on outcomes with an apparent goal of get the agreements, don't worry about the content. ecipe.org/blog/uk-trade-… Image
My colleague @ErikvanderMarel has been crunching the numbers on services and CPTPP, and finds the opportunities to be limited. Because distance matters in services, and the UK is already over-performing with most members. ecipe.org/blog/uk-joinin… Image
What should UK government trade priorities be? Removing US Scotch tariffs for sure. But beyond this, services and non-tariff barriers, since we already see with the EU how important these are. Conclude our WTO negotiation, sure add a couple of FTAs, but focused on quality. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
Very important thread - reporting of the Northern Ireland protocol is typically inaccurate because it only refers to new East-West barriers (goods), not the new North-South ones (services). It affects both communities.

There is currently no realistic alternative to the protocol.
Maybe negotiable if combined with trusted trader / enhanced market surveillance? Won't change the fundamentals though. And bear in mind it is only two months since the UK government claimed to have fixed issues with the NI Protocol.
Once again the problem of the difference between the Prime Minister denying there are checks on GB-Northern Ireland trade and a negotiation about how the checks should work. And the DUP and Brexit ultras wanting the protocol to be scrapped.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Feb
Finally discovering non-tariff barriers? Or the realities of the Northern Ireland protocol agreed 15 months ago and on which no scrutiny was apparently required?
The UK government is slowly learning what free trade really means and it would be nice if they would hurry up before the UK sustains too many more economic losses from the establishment of such significant barriers.
Reasonable to think that the UK government should have a strong case to extend Northern Ireland protocol grace periods as a quid pro quo for Commission mistake last week. But that of course is far short of what some in NI are calling for wherein lies the problem.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Feb
It seems nobody wants to say that the situation in Great Britain to Northern Ireland is a consequence of the choices made by the UK government - and that is only going to grow as a problem. theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/f…
Sorry @anandMenon1 but this is simply some way short of the full story. The UK were not willing to make the commitments made by New Zealand on animal exports to preserve our regulatory independence / prospects of a US trade deal. theguardian.com/commentisfree/… Image
The UK government were told repeatedly that the greater the divergence from the EU, the greater the regulatory independence, the greater the barriers to trade between Britain and Northern Ireland. They chose to ignore that. It is still not admitted. How is this the EU's fault?
Read 15 tweets

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