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2 Feb, 19 tweets, 6 min read
It seems nobody wants to say that the situation in Great Britain to Northern Ireland is a consequence of the choices made by the UK government - and that is only going to grow as a problem. theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/f…
Sorry @anandMenon1 but this is simply some way short of the full story. The UK were not willing to make the commitments made by New Zealand on animal exports to preserve our regulatory independence / prospects of a US trade deal. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
The UK government were told repeatedly that the greater the divergence from the EU, the greater the regulatory independence, the greater the barriers to trade between Britain and Northern Ireland. They chose to ignore that. It is still not admitted. How is this the EU's fault?
These are deals the UK government signed, that have put Northern Ireland in a unique place in the UK, EU, and global trade. It can be manageable. But not as part of a blame game directed towards the EU. That is a recipe for trouble. crossborder.ie/northern-irela…
And yes, the EU screwed up last Friday on vaccines and Northern Ireland. But they reversed very quickly. The UK government has consistently denied the impact of their choices on checks of goods to Northern Ireland. Start your search for causes of problems there, and only there.
PS for those who want to check the conditions attached to lower checks on food products, here's the EU-New Zealand treaty. Tables of equivalent regulation. Ask the question why the UK was unwilling to meet this precedent. eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
PPS serious concern that the UK government may hope that denying their role in choosing checks in Northern Ireland will force EU to back down over the whole protocol. This is - literally - playing with fire. But sure, make it all about the EU...
You have to admit a problem to have flexible solutions. The UK government won't (the EU are not blameless, but the UK denial is no basis for creativity).
Worrying. But unfortunately not surprising. Urgent need for work on an agreed narrative on the Northern Ireland protocol that is minimally distorted by Westminster Brexit politics. This is a problem across communities. @antsoares67
Also. Fear Westminster has sleepwalked into another Northern Ireland crisis.

This is primarily the direct consequence of the pure Brexit sought by the UK government. Who ignored the many warnings.
Also worth remembering: Not one Northern Irish MP voted in support of either the Withdrawal Agreement or the UK-EU trade deal.
The voice of the English anti-EU obsessive with no interest in Northern Ireland peace. It is the EU's Withdrawal Agreement. Not something agreed by the Prime Minister and voted for by the Conservative Party breaking promises to the DUP.
Could do with updating this for the new situation, but I feel it broadly works even with the new agreement. In particular the need for careful navigation, good faith, and avoidance of overt legalism with regard to Northern Ireland. crossborder.ie/northern-irela…
It is worth remembering that trade consists of goods and services. New goods barriers in place between Northern Ireland and Great Britain are matched by new services barriers in place between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Hence why this is a cross community issue.
But to repeat again - you cannot resolve the implementation problems of the Northern Ireland protocol if you deny their existence. That might play well in London. But it is dangerous in Northern Ireland. As we see.
Fine, but is it not possible for us to discuss them first? Evidently not, but not a great way to proceed.
Similar point.
Brexit upset the delicate balances and we've been trying to find a solution. The backstop would have protected them better but...
More like it (think @Simon4NDorset does a good job as chair of the Northern Ireland select committee)

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
Interesting thread end point end point. I hope, and I could be wrong, that the UK government knows that to actually trigger protocol safeguard mechanisms would be incredibly counter-productive in showing a total lack of good faith. I suspect this is more an idle threat.
Obviously the UK government is under pressure from the DUP to renounce the protocol. But that's been true for 15 months. They are under pressure from EU and US not to do so. And that pressure has been more important to date, and probably wil continue to be so.
Then the UK government is under pressure trying to protect the PM who denies an Irish Sea border, while trying to make things better which Michael Gove and team knows means ignoring what the PM says. All together very tricky.
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
UK politicians of all stripes have used the EU as a punchbag / excuse for many years. In that we were true Europeans, other Member States do exactly the same. There is negligible cost. But as non-members there probably is a cost to axting in the same way. Is it still worth it?
One of the reasons I reject the idea the UK was somehow 'not European' - because our behaviour as members was not as different as many claimed. But as others have suggested, you may get a result as non-members by being more pro-EU than members.
UK politics is in a confused state with regard to trade and external relations. Unable to make the (cynical but necessary?) leap to EU as friends, a one-way special relationship, no wonder we seek solace on the other side of the world. Old habits, but distance...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
We have two new @ECIPE blogs for you today on the UK. From me on the linkage between the UK government not listening seriously to business, and their lack of ambition on outcomes with an apparent goal of get the agreements, don't worry about the content. ecipe.org/blog/uk-trade-… Image
My colleague @ErikvanderMarel has been crunching the numbers on services and CPTPP, and finds the opportunities to be limited. Because distance matters in services, and the UK is already over-performing with most members. ecipe.org/blog/uk-joinin… Image
What should UK government trade priorities be? Removing US Scotch tariffs for sure. But beyond this, services and non-tariff barriers, since we already see with the EU how important these are. Conclude our WTO negotiation, sure add a couple of FTAs, but focused on quality. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Feb
Very important thread - reporting of the Northern Ireland protocol is typically inaccurate because it only refers to new East-West barriers (goods), not the new North-South ones (services). It affects both communities.

There is currently no realistic alternative to the protocol.
Maybe negotiable if combined with trusted trader / enhanced market surveillance? Won't change the fundamentals though. And bear in mind it is only two months since the UK government claimed to have fixed issues with the NI Protocol.
Once again the problem of the difference between the Prime Minister denying there are checks on GB-Northern Ireland trade and a negotiation about how the checks should work. And the DUP and Brexit ultras wanting the protocol to be scrapped.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Feb
Finally discovering non-tariff barriers? Or the realities of the Northern Ireland protocol agreed 15 months ago and on which no scrutiny was apparently required?
The UK government is slowly learning what free trade really means and it would be nice if they would hurry up before the UK sustains too many more economic losses from the establishment of such significant barriers.
Reasonable to think that the UK government should have a strong case to extend Northern Ireland protocol grace periods as a quid pro quo for Commission mistake last week. But that of course is far short of what some in NI are calling for wherein lies the problem.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Feb
The latest industry to notice that a thin EU trade deal means economic losses. And, to repeat (again), the trade barriers going up between UK and EU won't be offset by a similar reduction of barriers elsewhere. This is free trade UK government style, meaning the opposite.
What the UK government can't or won't say - there will be major losers from the new EU trade barriers. That 4% GDP loss, or whatever it may be, will hit real people and real jobs. There will be some winners as well, but more losers.
And as I've noted before, the major irony. A government and cheerleaders who claim to be free trade leaders are actually leading the world in putting in trade barriers. And their opponents, often without such an ideology, are supporting free trade.
Read 6 tweets

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