Very important thread - reporting of the Northern Ireland protocol is typically inaccurate because it only refers to new East-West barriers (goods), not the new North-South ones (services). It affects both communities.

There is currently no realistic alternative to the protocol.
Maybe negotiable if combined with trusted trader / enhanced market surveillance? Won't change the fundamentals though. And bear in mind it is only two months since the UK government claimed to have fixed issues with the NI Protocol.
Once again the problem of the difference between the Prime Minister denying there are checks on GB-Northern Ireland trade and a negotiation about how the checks should work. And the DUP and Brexit ultras wanting the protocol to be scrapped.
Back to Northern Ireland, the UK's asks on the protocol are at the maximalist end I would suggest. Begs the question though of why these weren't asks of the deal done in December. If I am the EU I ask so what will the UK do in return?
Thus for example, the EU might say you can have longer grace periods on food as long as you don't make any regulatory changes in that area. Since the two are obviously linked. How does the UK government then respond?
Anyway, my longer read on Northern Ireland, for @BorderlexEditor. How it now has a unique status in the UK, EU, and WTO, which means that policy making has to be extremely careful. The EU failed this test last week, the UK has barely got to grips with it. borderlex.net/2021/02/03/per…
In short, Northern Ireland has become everyone's challenge. But still most of all for the UK. Because regulatory divergence from the EU means regulatory divergence from Northern Ireland. According to international treaties.
🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
He appears to genuinely have no idea what he signed with regard to Northern Ireland, what the realities are in modern trade. "absurd way" = modern trade.

Also doesn't realise he already threatened the protocol. A negotiator of rare ineptitude.
I do think we have to take seriously the possibility that the Prime Minister simply does not understand modern trade and regulation, and therefore does not understand what he agreed to in the Northern Ireland Protocol, and Trade and Cooperation Agreement. It might not be an act.
Frankly looks like an unrealistic wish list faced with the realities of what was previously agreed, and taking advantage of an EU threat that was less serious than the previous UK threat. Yet still not enough for the DUP.
Be an interesting test of EU handling of the UK post-Brexit. For the EU I would reply saying that conscious of the delicate situation of course we are willing to discuss these issues but that must be in a framework of understanding of the protocol and EU regulations, and...
The EU would look for a reciprocal commitment from the UK to not change the laws in which checks continued to be eased, and for the UK government to make a statement accepting the principle and responsibility of checks on GB-NI trade. No more denial.
We shall see, but this looks like the UK government trying to make rather a lot of the EU's threat to the NI protocol while ignoring its own previous on the matter. Will be interested in how the EU responds. Not expecting quick resolution.
Short version: The EU threat to trigger the safeguard clause in the Northern Ireland protocol was such an outrage that unless the agreements the UK has previously signed are immediately changed we will invoke the same clause. Sounds like blackmail.
Evidently the government learnt nothing from the Internal Market Bill debacle. Threat, probably followed by climbdown. Any ideas when we can expect a statement from President Biden emphasising the importance of peace and for calm reflection etc?
Talking of the Internal Market Bill, the former chief government legal official who resigned over it has a comment on the Northern Ireland protocol renegotiation.
In other countries a government that negotiated an agreement that a month into implementation turned out to need serious improvement would be under severe pressure from media and opposition.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

4 Feb
Might start a Brexit dictionary. In this case "absurd" means perfectly normal outside of a single market. bbc.com/news/amp/enter…
Just wait until UK Ministers discover that every country has non tariff barriers to trade and the only group of countries to remove them almost completely are the EU plus EEA countries.
Read 7 tweets
4 Feb
Integrated supply chains like this affect all sectors of the economy, and are in turn affected by greater barriers. ft.com/content/9fb6b5… Image
Someone made the very good point to me earlier this week that even small companies can have their own global supply chains - technology raised that possibility. But now many UK companies are disadvantaged.

My paper published earlier this week. ecipe.org/publications/g…
So why don't we bring the entire supply chain back to the UK like in the 1970s? Because that will not produce the same quality of goods at the same price. And we'll be hopelessly uncompetitive compared to those drawing on a range of inputs. Image
Read 5 tweets
4 Feb
Dial down the politics and uncertainty and Northern Ireland has a potentially strong offer to business. Unfettered goods access to EU, mostly unfettered to GB, plus large numbers of population eligible for dual passports so can work across UK and EU.
In general the UK will do better with the EU once it stops treating those who want to negotiate better outcomes as opponents, and moves away from tried and failed techniques of bluster followed by retreat.
What is the UK gaining from this refusal to fully recognise the EU Ambassador? A good headline at the expense of an ability to influence our major trading partner and a global regulator?
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
Useful. And adds to my feeling that UK negotiating hand over Northern Ireland is rather weak. Yes the Commission mucked up. And yes there are difficulties. But the UK previously made threats, and PM doesn't seem to understand what he signed up for. Needs cleverer UK approach.
If UK politics can't be honest about what has happened in EU talks particularly with regard to Northern Ireland then we face having the same conversations on repeat, to the frustration of all, leading to the same outcomes. And causing economic loss and political impotence.
This is what I mean by lack of honesty about the outcome of talks. Facilitated by the English print media and opposition not wanting to have the conversation about the way we lost negotiations then pretended it was a victory.
Read 7 tweets
3 Feb
Interesting thread end point end point. I hope, and I could be wrong, that the UK government knows that to actually trigger protocol safeguard mechanisms would be incredibly counter-productive in showing a total lack of good faith. I suspect this is more an idle threat.
Obviously the UK government is under pressure from the DUP to renounce the protocol. But that's been true for 15 months. They are under pressure from EU and US not to do so. And that pressure has been more important to date, and probably wil continue to be so.
Then the UK government is under pressure trying to protect the PM who denies an Irish Sea border, while trying to make things better which Michael Gove and team knows means ignoring what the PM says. All together very tricky.
Read 14 tweets
3 Feb
UK politicians of all stripes have used the EU as a punchbag / excuse for many years. In that we were true Europeans, other Member States do exactly the same. There is negligible cost. But as non-members there probably is a cost to axting in the same way. Is it still worth it?
One of the reasons I reject the idea the UK was somehow 'not European' - because our behaviour as members was not as different as many claimed. But as others have suggested, you may get a result as non-members by being more pro-EU than members.
UK politics is in a confused state with regard to trade and external relations. Unable to make the (cynical but necessary?) leap to EU as friends, a one-way special relationship, no wonder we seek solace on the other side of the world. Old habits, but distance...
Read 5 tweets

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